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Sunday, June 8, 2014

Saker rant: Please tell me my worst fears will not come true!

Several Serbian commentators have expressed their concern, if not outright worry, about what is happening right now in Novorossia. I have to admit that I now share that concern. While I am not Serbian myself, some of the longtime readers of that blog know that I have had the opportunity to follow the entire war in Bosnia and Croatia literally minute by minute while working for the UN far away from Yugoslavia, but with daily access to UNPROFOR reports and with the possibility to debrief any UNPROFOR officers including two Force Commanders. For me this war will forever feel 'raw' because that was the event which really opened by eyes to the nature of the so-called "free and democratic West" and which, combined with the war in Chechnia, eventually cost me my career. I will thus readily admit that I might be over-reacting. In fact, my brain tells me one thing, but my gut tells me another and as a result I am feeling a very unpleasant but persistent feeling of alarm.

It all began when I finally listened to the full inauguration speech of Poroshenko. Up to that moment, I had some hopes that while even though this would be difficult, some kind of reasonable beginning of some kind of peace process could be negotiated with the man. I knew that the guy was an unprincipled prostitute, but it was precisely that "quality" which made me cautiously hopeful: better a rational prostitute that a crazed lunatic, right?

Listening to him I understood that in this case Poroshenko was completely bought by the USA and that vague European effort to negotiate something had be summarily tossed out into the trash bin. As I wrote in a previous post, his message to Novorossia and Russia was as simple as it was blunt:

  • No federalization
  • No state status for the Russian language
  • No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
  • Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
  • Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine
So this was Poroshenko's "peace plan".  In fact,  Juan was absolutely right: it was a declaration of war combined with an ultimatum demanding a total and unconditional surrender.  The fingerprints of Uncle Sam were all over the place.  I was appalled by the lunacy of this "peace plan" but soon my disgust turned into horror when I saw the Russian reaction.

Instead of walking out from this zoo (Poroshenko got US-style standing ovations at each of the worst of his statement), the Russian ambassador just sat there.  The Ministry of Foreign affairs did not comment either.  As for the Russian media, it did summarize the event, but most of its attention was focused on the latest kidnapping of yet another two Russian journalists and on the floods around Barnaul in Russia.  As for Putin, he announced that the had ordered the FSB to close down the section of the border which had been liberated by the NDF to prevent "the passage of illegal groups".

Not good.  Not good at all.  And it did remind me of Bosnia.

Quick flashback: the Bosnian Serbs had basically won the war and defeated both the Bosnian-Croats and their supporters in Croatia and the Bosnian-Muslims and their supporters from the Muslim world.  And yet they had to do that in spite of Milosevic who had agreed to cooperate with the AngloZionist by participating in the Empire's blockade of the Bosnian-Serb even though he knew full well that the Croats were getting convoys full of weapons, ammo and supplies from Croatia and that the Muslims were getting the same courtesy of the US and Turkish Air Forces.  Milosevic sold out his own people against a promise to be allowed to rule over Serbia and Montenegro.  That promise was eventually broken (most AngloZionist "promises" are), but at that time he thought he could negotiate with the devil.  He then sold out the Serbs of Kosovo (the craddle of Serbia no less than Kiev is the craddle of Russia).  That he then died poisoned in the Hague is hardly a consolation to me.

Now, as a good friend told me: Putin is not Milosevic and, besides, if Putin caves in now he would be committing political suicide.  I agree.  Or, should I say, my brain agrees.  My gut is in full "red alert" mode and I have been walking with a knot in my stomach since 2 days now.  Here is why,

First, I don't think that Putin can simply pretend not to have noticed Poroshenko's absolutely insane speech.  What a candidate says is, indeed, not very relevant, but an inaugural speech is really a totally different matter: it is, by definition, a *program speech* which outlines the goals of the new President.

Second, what is happening now in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and the rest of Novorossia is a humanitarian catastrophe and Putin has promised to prevent that.

Third, Russia's careful and non-provocative stance is gradually being interpreted by the western media as a sign of weakness and this perception might be, in part, the cause for the escalation in both atrocities by the regime in Kiev and of the increasingly arrogant anti-Russian rhetoric of Western politicians.

I am most definitely not an admirer of Dugin, but he recently said something which I fully agree with: he said that the future of the planet is being decided in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and the rest of Novorossia because the outcome of this battle will decide whether Russia can stand her ground against AngloZionist Empire and thereby initiate the liberation of the rest of the world or whether Russia will basically cave in.  I fully agree with him.  It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the planet is being decided right now in Novorossia.

This is why I have a knot in my stomach.  So far, I am most definitely not seeing the kind of reaction Poroshenko's speech deserves.  And it is not just words, like some say.  The day of Poroshenko's inauguration saw a violent increase in artillery strikes on Novorossia and an attack on a high level Novorussian official.  Today - a Ukie artillery shell hit a church were the faithful were assembled for the feast of the Pentecost.

Putin has promised the Russian people (in Russia proper and outside) that he would not allow massive atrocities to take place against the population of Novorossia.  They are clearly happening now.  As for the "new" regime in Kiev, it is every bit as Nazi as the worst Right Sector lunatic would want.  Uncle Sam has basically crushed every EU attempt at a negotiated outcome.  This is most definitely not Putin's fault or the fault of the poor people of Novorossiia, but there can me no more hope for a reasonable negotiated settlement.

Russia has to act now and used her armed forces to liberate Novorossia.  Not to do so would be a betrayal of the Russian people.

My brain tells me that Putin will give the order to do so very soon.  But the memories of Bosnia haunt me.  So far Putin's track record is excellent, pretty close to perfect.  But for all my support for his policies, I never *trusted* him, at least not fully.  Honestly, I cannot image what will happen if he does not give the order to move in because if he fails to do so he would be giving up on the entire strategic plan of what I call the Eurasian Sovereignists to "resovereignize" Russia and liberate her from the AngloZionist Empire.  I cannot and do not want to believe that 14 years of struggle involving a great deal of dangers and, at times, truly superhuman efforts will now go to waste.  And yet I have this knot sitting there inside my gut and that knot gets worse and worse with each lame and vapid statement coming out of the Kremlin.

The US is hell-bent on war with Russia and the EU has completely sold out. Nothing new here, the European elites *always* joined in what I call a "Ecumenical anti-Russian coalition" with the SOB of the day against Russia: they did so when the Papacy launched a crusade on Orthodoxy, they did so under Napoleon, they did so during the Crimean War and they did so during the Third Reich.  So now that Eurotrash is on the side of Uncle Shmuel (a more accurate name for Uncle Sam, don't you think?).  What else is new?

This latest war might not be a "hot" one (although I really would not put anything past the AngloZionsit 1%ers), but it sure will be total and merciless anyhow.  And there is only one way to put and end to this: the Russian bear must bare his fangs, make an example with the Ukie Nazis and show these European imbeciles that Russia means business.

So please tell me that I am wrong and that when push comes to shove Putin will have willpower and courage to stand his ground against what I can only call a satanic coalition of the most evil ideologies and people I can think of.  I fully supported Russia's non-intervention right up until Saturday and Poroshenko's speech, but that policy has been taken to its limits and, to my immense regret, it has failed, primarily due to the truly unbelievable cowardice and immorality of the European political leaders (may they all rot in hell for selling out their own people the way they did it!).  It makes no sense to hope for a last minute miracle: those accursed EU bureaucrats did not find even a atom of dignity or decency inside themselves and as a result a full-scale Cold War v2 in Europe is now inevitable (the Bulgarians pushed their treachery one step beyond and under orders from MCCain agreed to stop the work on South Stream).

My brain tells me that Putin will give the order.  Soon.

But I have that horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach.

Please tell me that Putin is not Milosevic.

Please tell me my worst fears will not come true. 

The Saker

144 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Saker, take a look at this

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/ .

John-Albert said...

Apparently (Der Spiegel) a lot of well-armed Chechens have joined the SE Ukraine. Maybe Putin is counting on them ..

Mohamed said...

Dearest Saker,

God bless you and your entire family. You are a very good and a concerned person.

May the Peace of Jesus (as) be on you. And, The Holy Ghost to soothe your soul.

Peace,

Mohamed.

pogo said...

To be sure, none of us can give you any assurances your worst fears will not come true.

Having suffered great losses in wars past, the Russians collectively understand the meaning of war. It is not the first choice of any rational person, and from some perspectives, the resort to war, even in defense, indicates the failure of all other efforts.

Putin et al are wise to pick the time and place when they offer the lives of Russian youth as a sacrifice to the interests of the Russian nation and those of their brothers and sisters in the Ukraine. These decisions need to be made soberly and unclouded by emotions. I believe the Russian leadership now knows fully well it can't trust anything the Anglo-American cabal promises and it also knows that any influx of military supplies on behalf of the regime in Kiev will pose an even greater threat to Russia.

Anonymous said...

Glad see you change of heart. There are time for diplomacy, and wait, but it should be over by now. Weakness is not your countries best interest.

It also will be too late a year two from now, those battle harden NAZI Guards will cross porous Russia/Ukraine frontier, and cause havoc in Russia.

Anonymous said...

Saker - I've got the same knot...

I think Putin will respond with a 'lightning strike' which is just what the AngloZios want, so as to excuse their retaliation - providing cover for their collapsing economy. (No problem with that, BTW, - likely there is a cashless one-world currency all ready to roll out, but a 3rd Pearl Harbor is needed first.)

Ultimately this is about the Zios vs everyone else. It appears that Dr. Putin is the most influential leader who has not been either bought or assassinated.

John

Anonymous said...

I have to agree with all you said, Saker. My hope is that Putin has told Kiev that they have 24 hours (36?, whatever) to stop. If they do not, here we come.

sasy said...

Went to voice of Russia page but 404 not found

Мудра Сова said...

Hi Saker, if you want to use this personal analogy you started, Putin is not Milosevic. Milosevic was a lot more like Yeltsin. Serbia doesn't have its Putin.

Milosevic was a pretty good tactician, but a horrible strategist, which in the end cost him everything. I don't see Putin as a bad strategist, far from it.

For some comedic relief, I'm going to recycle and modify an old Cold War 1 joke (I'm sure you'll be able to tell how the original went):

After WWIII there were only one Russian and one American soldier left alive on Earth. They met and agreed to settle with a duel. They both drew their pistols but the Russian drew faster and shot the American. The Russian blew the smoke from his pistol, turned around and started to walk away. Then another shot was heard and the Russian fell down dead. What happened?

...

A Bulgarian crawled out of the dead American's ass and shot the Russian.

OldSkeptic said...

Oh he will do it, because the West will keep escalating until he does. So in a sense he will be forced to. But (as I have said here before) he will try and pick the best way, time and place for Russia. He is desperately trying to get his 'ducks' (military, political, economic) set up before he moves.

He knows full well that when he does it there will be total oil/gas/economic sanctions slapped on Russia. The US and EU have probably already printed them out ready for the moment.

That means no oil/gas sales, total banning of sales to Russia (that will include medicine as well as cars, machine tools, planes, spare parts, etc), total confiscation of Russian assets overseas, banning Russia from the monetary clearing house and so on ... think Iran.

The fact that it will eliminate whatever is left of the EU economies is irrelevant, as I have also said the EU 'leaders' are totally owned by the US and will sacrifice their economies and people quite happily. Some of them have probably already planned putting their countries under martial law, to suppress all dissent based by the following economic collapse.

So when it happens and it will because the West is determined to make it happen...and will provoke and escalate until it does (eg by NATO invading Crimea in the end). All hell is going to break loose.

For one example, taking the world biggest oil exporter out of the World market will raise oil prices to what... $150, $200, $250 a barrel??? So not only will EU economies be toast, but so will the rest of the World's.

This will be the greatest crisis the World has seen since WW2. This is the big one boys and girls.

Anonymous said...

None of us can give you any assurance that your fears will be come true.

Please keep in mind that the Russians know fully well from their history what war means.

From some perspectives violence even in defense represents the failure of all other efforts to resolve political problems.

Putin et al need to make their decisions in all sobriety before they sacrifice young Russian lives in the interest of Russia and their brothers and sisters in the Ukraine. I believe the Russian leadership now knows without a doubt that it can't trust anything the Anglo-American cabal says and knows that Russia can't consider itself secure with any meaningful flow of military supplies to the regime in Kiev.

family_man said...

I don't comment much here, because I don't feel I am qualified to add much to the discussion. However, the prediction I made a month ago still stands:

"If Russia does not intervene (as I believe is most likely), it retains the moral high ground by avoiding military action unless an attack on Russian soil is imminent. The Banderists will be in charge. They will crank up the propaganda, and win many more converts. Ukraine will become a Nazi state, but if it tries to install NATO or nuclear weapons, Russia will bomb them on the spot. Life will be especially hard for Jewish people and Russian speakers left behind. There will be a large diaspora to prosperous Russia, which will share its largess by offering instant citizenship, subsidized housing and other benefits. It's the least it could do.

If Russia intervenes militarily, for anything less than a complete bloodbath, we will come far too close to WWIII, with results far to dangerous to predict. Of course I prefer the first outcome. Sometimes, you just have to turn the other cheek."

If Putin does decide to act militarily, he most certainly will not tell us about it until after the order is given.

Anonymous said...

sorry for the repeats, didn'see the message indicating it was saved

Anonymous said...

Bulgaria has ordered the halt of the construction of the South Stream pipeline.

http://rt.com/business/164588-brussels-bulgaria-halts-south-stream/

Anonymous said...

Have you ever had a post which exposes many of the specific details and anecdotes of what you learned, being a UN insider, during the Bosnian war?

There have actually been many UN officers who've been quoted, have written on, and testified at the ICTY about Bosnian Muslims tactics: about how they provoked Serbs, often from near UN compounds, on hospital grounds, etc., as well as they staged attacks, including killing civilians in Sarajevo. UN officers also testified that the Bosnian Muslim snipers used the buildings along the infamous "Sniper's Alley" and yet despite all they witnessed - and even British diplomat Lord David Owen witnessed a Bosniak mortar attack which killed civilians near to him (it was actually timed as he was getting out of his car) in order to blame Serbs - the mainstream media as well as the general population around the world still believe all the propaganda.

I also wonder if you spend any time commenting on articles still pushing the lies and propaganda on the war. There's a current article by Ed Vuillamy(sp) (longtime anti-Serb propagandist) ostensibly about a Bosnian Muslim football star and BiH going to the world cup as uniting the country, yet most of the article rehashes the lying, demonizing propaganda against the Serbs with no exposure of Bosnian Muslim or Croat atrocities against Serbs or each other. The whole article really looks to me as a way to strongly recycle the anti-Serb propaganda.

Personally I think all of you insiders as well as people who served in BiH or the Balkans should have some collective website where eyewitness accounts, as well as UN documents which expose the truth hidden by the mainstream, are available to the public and researchers on the net.
And of course any photos or videos (personal or official) to illustrate the evidence, as well as any maps, sketches, statistics not available to the public to this point.

I also think you should be correcting other blogs and articles or those spouting propaganda. You can use your superior insider knowledge against the hacks and ignorants.

Anonymous said...


I'm sure none of us know the answer to your plea. Know I sure don't.

The Anglo/zionist pawns have put something on my page at twitter and I can't even go there to get inside information. What I have been able to find at various websites is grim indeed. My adopted town of Slavyansk took a warlike beating today and I cried like a little kid.

More and more voices in Russia are speaking out that this can't go on any longer. Some of these voices are very close to Putin.
Of course the money sector wants nothing done.. the magic word

Sanctions

The EU via Brussels is 100% zionist, no way Russia will get a break from there. Even if Germany wanted to do something they are occuppied by US military/ aka NATO. How they allowed themselves to be blackmailed into this place I will never understand.

We just have to wait and see Saker. The ball is in Russia's court.
karin

123abc said...

Saker, I don't understand the radical change in your analysis.

Before you were saying that time is on Russia's side, let the Ukraine collapse, etc...

Poroshenko's inauguration speech was neither unexpected nor did it change anything. What did you expect him to say? What did Novorussia expect? What did you expect that a newly Ukie president would say when you wrote that time is on Russia's side?

Okay, Russia said that they will control the border. But what did you expect them to do? The border is wide open, so they announce that they will control the border stronger, since there is no Ukraine control of the border. So what? We can't yet assume that it means that Russia will cut all help to anti-fascist Army.

And one more thing about Poroshenko. So he made his speech two days ago, wouldn't it be perceived as counterproductive to immediately demonize Proroshenko without first having given him a chance? I'm not saying that Russia has any illusions about Poroshenko, I'm just saying that it would be counterproductive to demonize him right after his inauguration speech.


But I agree about the Bulgaria news. They are pretty bad.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Anonymous:Glad see you change of heart.

Right. I knew that some cretin would post that or something similar. Dude, "there is a [correct] time for everything" and the only reason why you think that I had a change of heart is because you never understood what I said in the first place.

So, for all the boneheads out there:

Putin was RIGHT to wait until Poroshenko's election and until Merkel could talk to him. It was his direct duty to seek a negotiated outcome and that outcome was at least in theory possible until Poroshenko did not have "blood on his hands". Now Poroshenko does.

Is that really so hard to understand?!

The Saker

Anonymous said...

Saker,
Poroschenko already changed his speech in only one day. In the German press the propaganda is slowing down, please calm down too.
Putin is not Milosovic!
But it will take more time than it is affordable. But it is a decision for the whole world.
Kind regards

OldSkeptic said...

And the specter of Doom starts to fall over us all:

This is a First Strike positioning by the US:

US Air Force Sends 2 B-2 Stealth Bombers To The UK

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/us-air-force-sends-2-b-2-stealth-bombers-uk

Christoph said...

Your gut is right - and your earlier analysis "Why Russia will not intervene" still applies.

Rilke said "States are the coldest of cold beasts".

The new cold war desired By the Us would damage Russias prospects much more than any atrocities / perceptions Kiev will bei able to generate before it runs out of money .

Anonymous said...

@sasy

Remove space at the end.

Lysander said...

A very frightening prospect, Saker, if true. Having a totally subjugated Ukraine with NATO forces right on the border with Rostov on the Don is not just stabbing the NovoRassians in the back, it is a knife in the Russian state and people. Russia would garner no ally in the future as who could trust her help them if she wont help herself? But I find it hard to believe that Russia would back Syria to the hilt and against enormous pressure, only to stab herself in the back.

So let us ask ourselves, what plan Putin could have in mind that requires him to act as he is now? If he plans an intervention, is their an advantage to total and complete surprise? And does Russia need to intervene to save the East? Did Putin REALLY close the border? Could the large number of "border guards" be people being smuggled into the east?

My impression is that Putin has decided an overt invasion is just too costly. But he will not abandon East Ukraine and might think that the LESS media attention it is getting the more covert help he can smuggle in.

Of course, the worst is possible. I hope this is one of the very few times you've been wrong.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@123abc: Saker, I don't understand the radical change in your analysis.
Before you were saying that time is on Russia's side, let the Ukraine collapse, etc...


Time *IS* on Russia's side. But not on the side of the dying people of Novorossia. The problem is in the degree of escalation in the past 48 hours. It's just like Hegel wrote, quantitative changes eventually result in qualitative changes.

Russia CAN wait to solve the Banderastan problem as a whole.

But the people of Novorossia need help *NOW*.

Is that clear now or is my view still somehow cryptic?

Cheers,

The Saker

Anonymous said...

Disagree. No order of Putin.

He has outlined his approach in the press conference on June 6:

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/22457

Check how often he is talking about economical ties with Ukraine. Clearly a bait. Meeting Ukraine halfway when it comes to gas prices etc. etc.

But also the clear statement that the bloodshed must cease. To repeat this after the inauguration speach was a clear reminder and Poroshenko as reacted accordingly. So here we are back in the economy.

What is irritating though are the other parts of Poroshenkos speach, e.g. the EU Membership. Putin was clear in his press conference what would happen in this case and I bet, he said the same in the conversation with Poroshenko. That the new president of Ukraine preferred to insist on the EU orientation is surprising. After all he might need to backpedal one day ... unless he calls for a Referendum and - unfortunately and surprisingly - the people of Ukraine decline this EU way.

Both Poroshenko and Putin are no fools and both are not easily fooled about. But in particular Poroshenko will need all his skills to walk the line without alienating some Nationalist too much.

And no, Putin won't act anytime soon. Just remind Poroshenko every now and then what he is supposed to do and appart of that he will Hand out goodies once certain steps are reached ...

Abdnour said...

I hope that your gut feeling is deceiving you. I hope Russia will act. But I don't know. Yes, Putin's record is almost perfect. But I see too much treason everywhere in our times Is he really what he seems to be? I don't know. I want to hope so. We will know very soon however. But I have a bad feeling for all mankind: I have a feeling that we are doomed. We have gone astray, far, far away from God. The "civilization" that we have built is a processing machine whose function is to make us forget God. That is what they call "le déchainement de la matière" on dedefensa.org. That is what is wrong with us, and I don't give mankind many chances to weather that storm.
Stlli hoping,
salam
Abdnour

Sky said...

I also held out some naive hope that Poroshenko's cupidity might have swayed his position to a more sensible stance once "elected." But it seems he's tied his fortune to the paymasters who put him there, despite the pretty obvious signs that the Empire is foundering. Not many passengers swam towards the Titanic, but for some reason the belief that the Empire is unsinkable is persistent.

The situation is ominous, and I agree that Putin has to do something- the question is what?

Putin has seen this coming- the Empire's plans and tactics have been obvious for many years. He's had time to prepare, and no doubt has been. The best plans are the unexpected ones.

The Empire tends to follow a certain "playbook" and seems to assume that everyone else does, too. The Empire also seems incapable of recognizing its own weaknesses. Megalomaniacs can survey the vast horizons but cannot grasp the idea of their own irrelevance.

I don't know what Putin has planned, of course, but I believe he has been planning for this for a long time, and the optimist in me has to believe that he's ready.

Expect the unexpected, I think.

Anonymous said...

Please remember that, nominally, what is happening in Ukraine is Ukrainians killing Ukrainians.

Eastern Ukraine is not Russia.

But there is a problem. One of the most disgusting things I have ever seen in my entire life, if not the most disgusting, was the interview with Obama side-by-side with Poroshenko. The things Obama said were unconscionable. What I mean by saying this is that Eastern Ukraine is not the United States either. Yet, it is being treated as if it were part of the United States. Completely.

So the situation is asymmetric.

And I guess the answer to what will happen next is contained in the minds of the people who voted against Europe. Will they go missing if Putin invades?

I think not. I think they will applaud it.

Putin will act.

Anonymous said...

The Saker, take a look at this


http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_08/Ceasefire-must-be-ensured-in-eastern-Ukraine-coming-week-Poroshenko-0944/

and this

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/

or this


http://voiceofrussia.com/

Lysander said...

Oldskeptic 08 June, 2014 22:14,

Much truth in that but I think Russian tanks can roll into Lvov tomorrow and a Russia soldier can step across the border and slap a Polish officer in the face and you STILL wont see that level of sanctions.

Anonymous said...

To The Saker and All Others

I am as disappointed and saddened by all this as most of you but I have long felt that Russia is dealing with the West from a position of pronounced weakness, including military weakness. If this hypothesis is accepted, the past four years of world politics becomes crystal clear. For example, capitulation on Iran (by withholding vital defense equipment and back-stabbing Iran), inaction on Libya, lack of response to the re-colonization of Africa, inability to stop the military encirclement of Russia, lack of response to US naval buildup in the Black sea even to the extent of accepting naval presence beyond the 21 days allowed under international treaties, and the handling of the Ukrainian events all show weakness, not strength. Now I know many of you tried to explain away the Ukrainian crisis as "astute chess moves" on part of Mr. Putin's part, but I never accepted that. War is war and chess is chess, let us remember. Yes, in war there is sometimes a need for strategic withdrawal and sometimes to just wait and watch, but I don't think either is the strong response when encirclement by enemy forces is underway. Mr. Putin is an honorable man, but he is holding a very weak hand. Russia is beset by a number of problems, many of them of a complex socio-psychological nature. The inability to counter enemy propaganda, the inability to present one's case to the court of world opinion, a society harboring various kinds of fifth columns (foreign NGOs are a case in point), a society that is divided even when there is critical need to close ranks, a society whose youth looks westward and is alienated from its own roots, corruption, inefficiency - these are the problems that Russia, like any other third world country, faces. I mean no disrespect by the words "third world"; I identify with the third world. In the transition from communism to 'something else' Russia destroyed its State; and for that grievous error it will pay a price for a long, long time to come. China, by contrast, handled that transition keeping its State and structures intact. So let us hope for the best but we must understand why things may not go well.

TicoTiger said...

I'm sure you remember that Putin visited Valaam monastery in late April. I personally interpreted this as a visit to Russia's holiest site to seek advice and strength for the trials he knew would come. It seems that those trials have arrived. Putin's faith is being tested, the Russian population's faith is being tested, and the Ukrainian people's faith is being tested.

I believe there is still a short time (perhaps a week or so) until Putin intervenes, assuming no major escalation of violence. More civilians will die at the hands of the mass murderers in Kiev, EU and US, and the world is increasingly watching and cracks in the evil empire are opening up.

In any case, eastern Ukraine cannot be conquered solely by cowardly artillery and air strikes against innocent men, women and children, which Poroshenko knows all too well. Troops on the ground are needed and they are not in place. Any move in that direction will be the trigger event in my opinion.

Saker, I too am both saddened and angered. Such injustice is hard to accept. Let us pray that God will give Mr. Putin the patience and strength to win this battle against evil, and may Sun Tzu be strategic advisor.

Wayoutwest said...

I'm afraid that knot in your stomach is the truth rearing its ugly head, Saker. Putin's every move since annexing Crimea has been an abandonment of the people of E. Ukraine with a clear call for their surrender to the Fascists. What this really proves is that we can never put our trust in any Leader no matter what good intentions they may display.

Russia has never needed to invade Ukraine to stop the bloodshed there. A few air sorties could relatively easily destroy most if not all of the exposed artillery and rockets being used in this murder campaign. The Nazi Guard and the regular Ukrainian Army would have no where to seek safety but in Kiev.

I hope I am wrong but it appears we will sit and watch while the People of E Ukraine are shelled into submission while no one lifts a hand in their defense.

Josh said...

@Saker - I'm confused as to why you seem to see it as an either/or dichotomy - either full-scale overt intervention or abandon the people of the Southeast?...

Much better solution IMO would be to simply ratchet up assistance for the resistance - both in terms of sending more advanced weapons and irregular fighters. From what we know this is likely happening already. Some air support *might* be needed as a last resort, but it should be the people of Novorossiya themselves who do most of the fighting.

I think a better solution would have been if Yanukovych had set up a legitimate government in exile with Russian support which claimed authority over the whole country, but likely Putin didn't have faith in his leadership. That ship's long sailed now anyway.

American Russophile said...

Dear Saker,
I know, it is easy to get very emotional with all the horrible things going on in Novorossiya, and depressed by the abysmal lack of compassion and human decency, let alone attention to what is really happening, exhibited by the European leadership and the European media. That however is hardly surprising given their lamentable past track record. But I would not doubt that Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, having come so far and done so much to put Russia back on her feet since 1999, will do the right thing when it comes to the developments in South East Ukraine. Besides, that candy-assed Poroshenko is talking about getting back Crimea, and that is a casus belli right there. Russia can only bend backwards so far, what with a looming massive refugee crisis and the prospect of Nato troops and missiles stationed close to Moscow on her Western border, before dealing a decisive blow to the lunatics who run the asylum in Kiev. Consistently, Putin has been a man of few words, as you will recall with his covert infiltration of polite men in green into the Crimea before calling for a referendum and reunification with Russia. He delivered a brilliant speech in the Kremlin only After the fact. So I would not be deafened by the silence from Moscow at this time. Likewise the tightening of the border is probably just a tactical feint, a form of maskirovka for which the Russians are justly famous. It seems to me that Novorossiya is the one area where the Russians cannot compromise without eventually putting their own safety at risk. As for a new Iron Curtain I still have doubts that most Europeans will buy into it at the cost of a few percentage points in GDP growth, when their economies are already teetering on the edge of depression.
Lastly your calling Uncle Sam Uncle Shmuel is not in very good taste, as the Anglo component of the Empire Government can certainly make plenty of very aggressive and destructive decisions without the help of the powerful zionist lobby. In fact I would not be surprised if some day they decided to throw their Jewish friends under the bus in order to save their own skins. Also as you yourself reminded your readers not so long ago there are principled Russian Jews who are taking a very firm patriotic stance in all of this Ukrainian business, like Soloviev and Gordon. Blaming Jews for everything is as old as the world it seems, but it won't solve anything. As the old joke goes a little bit of antisemitism is a good thing, but too much of a good thing can be a bad thing and detrimental to one's health in the end.
Kind regards and warm wishes,
American Russophile
PS I made a typo in my last comment, the Russian chocolate which is far superior to Roshen is Korkunov and not Gorkunov.

Anonymous said...

Saker -- With much less knowledge and expertise, I too have gone through the same conversion regarding Russia's intervention -- and also fear the worst and hope for the best. Given what you've seen (and frankly what you've sacrificed career-wise) it would be very difficult for you to NOT have these fears. It's disheartening to watch humanity make the same horrible mistakes, time and again. Marcus Aurelius said "Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one." The only thing we can do is our highest sense of right. And leave the rest to God.
Onward and upward. AGS

Anonymous said...

Yes, you are correct that the history of the planet is being decided right now over the Ukraine mess at least for the next 100 years. That is no exaggeration. No, Putin realizes it and is playing for time. Borders can be closed and that can mean nothing. The US can't even control its own borders so to expect Russia to do so is ridiculous and they know it. I will consult my military experts to see what they have to say and get back to you. Putin is not going to give any advanced warning so forget that illusion. His demand has always been that the Kiev folks open a dialogue with the Donbass folks and stop shelling civilians.
Russia is supposed to take the role of president of the UN Security Council which "involves calling the meetings thereof, approving the provisional agenda ( proposed by the Secretary General), presiding at its meetings and overseeing ANY crisis. The President usually speaks to the press on behalf of the Security Council." Wikipedia source.

Josh Vanhee said...

Saker,
I appreciate your concern. Still, two things:
1- Putin said clearly he would look at Poroshenko's deeds, not his words. I just read that he ordered a ceasefire. Let's see where that goes especially as he realizes no one wants to talk to him. Putin's point during the Normandy visit was clear: immediate ceasefire. In return, he'll close the border on his side. Let's see where that goes.
2- In the worst case, yes, Putin would allow the slaughter to continue too long. Yet Russia will intervene either clandestinely or openly.
I disagree with how you broaden the scope of the Ukraine decisions to stopping the Anglo-American empire worldwide. There is a Eurasian or multipolar axis growing as a counterweight to US exceptionalism, but this still needs 10 to 20 years to grow into a decent size. The US establishment still has lots of ammunition to try to thwart this, and Ukraine is only one battle.

Daniel Rich said...

Once there was a man who said he wouldn't let what happened to the Palestinians, happen to his people...

No matter how many Ukrainians are killed, it will never be enough for the collective 'Western leadership' to feel sympathy, let alone understand why Russia would act unilaterally.

These are testing times, but not lost times. Day by day Yats' men are prov ng why it's not good to have right wing killers on your side.

What would you do when you see the pictures of 'your' side, your men and women, your children being slaughtered by mindless thugs?

Take it from there.

If the legions of anti-Kiev freedom fighters don't swell beyond their capacity..., I personally don't care. Every ff-ing able man should be fighting by now. You can't sit on your hands and look left or right for someone else to do the bidding for you.

Russia should provide sophisticated weaponry, so the FF can defend themselves [properly], but this is an internal fight.

Do it the Chicago way

know the truth said...

"The US is hell-bent on war with Russia and the EU has completely sold out".

The US is indeed hell bent on war with Russia, but not with their own regular troops. They are hoping Russia would take the bait and intervene militarily in order for them to create another Afghanistan for Russia right on her own doorstep with their army of murderous mercenaries that will end up spilling over into Russia itself. The psychotic neo cons in Washington have managed to convince themselves that the missile defence shield they are setting up in Europe will protect them from the consequences of a nuclear first strike against Russia. This is and has always been the sole purpose of this so called missile defence shield. As to why president Putin is taking an almost supine attitude towards all this is simply beyond me. One of the grievances the Russians expressed towards their western "partners" is that Russia has often been tricked by them in the past often to Russias detriment,and I can only pray that in the matter of Ukraine Russia is not being tricked by them yet again. I say this because Im getting a strong feeling of undercurrents going on between president Putin and the various European "leaders" that we the general public are not privy to. I hope I am wrong but Im getting the feeling that the EU may have offered him some sort of deal over Ukraine, something like maybe "you support the presidential elections and call for the rebels to delay their referendum etc, etc, and we make sure the fighting ends blah blah blah". Something along those lines Im thinking, but you cannot make a deal with the devil because ultimately its not down to the EU its good old uncle sam whos pulling the strings. I fear the Russians are being too cultured and civilized towards the "west" as these barbarians see it as sign of weakness. They only understand and respect the language of force. I do very sincerely hope Russia is not caught napping yet again as the hounds of hell are now at its door.

Anonymous said...

I think your flip flop in your reasoning for Russia to enter into war is unwarranted. It is an imperfect world and there is no perfect outcome for this conflict for Russia.

I think your previous analyses were correct - there are no positive long-term outcomes from Russia entering into war with Ukraine or the West. Maybe some temporary satisfaction, but no long term goals will be solidified.

If Russia enters into war, the only outcome will be a long-term bleeding as Western-funded guerilla efforts by radicals would fight on for months and maybe years to come. Economic isolation from the west would be guaranteed.

In the end, the Novorossiya rebellion will either peter out, if there is insufficient groundswell support; or it will be successful on its own, if the popular support exists. Its success or failure won't depend primarily on Putin, but rather on the support and unity of the people in that region itself.

Regardless of some presidential speech in Kyiv, nothing will change with Crimea. Crimea is once again part of Russia - and will continue to be part of Russia. No worries there.

What can the rebels do? If they believe they have the support of the people, the best approach going forward for the rebels is to keep fighting until Ukraine realizes they need to negotiate a peace.

But in my opinion, the rebels need to better define what they are fighting for. It is not enough to say that they are fighting against something - modern day Nazis or bad guys from the West. They need to rally around an ideal that they cannot attain as citizens in modern day Ukraine.

Andrei P said...

It is my opinion that the USA intends to strike Russia militarily as possible and it is looking to provoke a major war.

The USA is bankrupt and cannot afford its military and the thinking might be it is now or never

Anonymous said...

Maybe you should quit watching the events with the millisecond and the millimeter as measuring units. For your own good and the sake of analysis as it makes you way too emotional when reason should be your only guide. Nothing of magnitude will happen overnight and in absence of suffering, nothing along human history ever has. As sad and cynical as it may sound.

The last thing Russia needs to do is what the whole scheme is designed to for it will then have shown its weakness.

Maybe time for a gas gambit by closing the tap to the EU. Russia will suffer, Europe much more and maybe wake up.

123abc said...

Saker said: "Is that clear now or is my view still somehow cryptic?"

What did you expect in your earlier analysis from last week(s)? Didn't you anticipate that Ukies would be bombing civilians and that a humanitarian catastrophe would result from it? Of course people from Novorussia would die, innocent children and women. What did you expect? Odessa was the last proof that showed that this humanitarian catastrophe would be inevitable, and it was already more than a month ago.

Already after Odessa it was clear that Putin was bluffing with his red line and that he is willing to accept civilian deaths - the question is for what? You insinuate that he does so because of weakness or because he "sold out". I choose to believe that he does so for the greater good.

And where is it writ large that Russia isn't helping already? Didn't Juan recently report that Novorussia soldiers regularly find weapons that they need?


Look, I'm not attacking you at all. I'm just saying that none of what recently happened contradicts your initial analysis, therefore I don't understand your change of heart.

juliania said...

It is so easy to agree with you, Saker, but I can't help wondering if the ready access we have to all of the terrible videos showing the carnage are not a constant reminder that while we are praying for the people of Ukraine, that access is being given to us here in the US by the very powers that be that want Russia to enter the conflict.

If they didn't want us to see what is happening, it would be easy enough for them to shut it all down, but it is in their interest to stir up our helpless emotions and have us put pressure on Russia to ramp up the violence.

There has to be a different course of action, and I won't call the shots - I can't call the shots - for Putin to do what the US clearly wants him to do.

You have a lot of experience, and I can't counter your arguments except for one I saw that I think Veritas put up yesterday on a link. I didn't agree completely with the tomato bubble or whatever it was, but the example he gave was of Afghanistan, where Russia's involvement eventually brought down the USSR because while they went in and installed pro-Russian administrators, the resistance fighters then could be armed by the US, so that the resulting war was definitely harder on the populace than if Russia had not gone in.

If Russia doesn't go in, that will put the US in the position that Russia was in then. There could well be very soon universal Ukrainian resistance to the US installed regime, even if, especially if, the US props it up. It's horrible for Ukraine either way, but this could unite the country against foreign interference, and that would be a very good thing.

I don't think it reflects on Putin because I believe he wants the best solution for all Russians and those of Russian heritage. And just as Russia has to be able to 'get along with the west (and vice versa) so too those two diverse peoples must be able to do so as well, and be an example to the rest of the world. As I said before, both are celebrating Pentecost today, even if in different churches.

And meanwhile, the important work to shift the balance of power back to a humanitarian oriented civilization can proceed.

Anonymous said...

Putting all our hopes and fears in the lap of Mr. Putin is doing the man a disservice. We all have to stand and face this ugly beast. If he falls or fails, say a prayer for him, he has earned it. He's been fighting a hard fight for a time now. True, Putin holds a position where he can do more than any of us, but the stress must be awful.

God bless him, though, and you too Saker for this blog and all your insights.

srbija said...

Thanks you the Saker for the great reports and interpretation of current events.
I am new to your great blog, but you get one more Serbian follower.
My fears are same as yours. I now how I feel about Milosevic betrayal, he get what he deserve but our brave people because of his stupid action are slave to EU and USA.
I've invested great hopes in Putin as a last defense of orthodoxy, but he never believed fully because I learned in life is to never trust any political, Serbia is great place to learn that lesson in hard way...
But as time goes by my hope is slowly dying. If at the end he despised his word, despised his red line which is underlined, and left his people like sheep before wolves, then Russia deserves the same fate as Serbia

srbija said...

Thanks you the Saker for the great reports and interpretation of current events.
I am new to your great blog, but you get one more Serbian follower.
My fears are same as yours. I now how I feel about Milosevic betrayal, he get what he deserve but our brave people because of his stupid action are slave to EU and USA.
I've invested great hopes in Putin as a last defense of orthodoxy, but he never believed fully because I learned in life is to never trust any political, Serbia is great place to learn that lesson in hard way...
But as time goes by my hope is slowly dying. If at the end he despised his word, despised his red line which is underlined, and left his people like sheep before wolves, then Russia deserves the same fate as Serbia

Anonymous said...

To all the Anglo-Zionist shills (who come here and attack Saker whenever there's a whiff of doubt or fear expressed), just BITE ME. To answer the question "What Putin has been waiting for"? Putin was waiting for ME and millions of others LIKE ME throughout the world to WAKE UP. Guess what. Here I am. Fully FUKING awake. Guess what else. No matter the outcome I'll STILL BE AWAKE to your lies, deceit and mendacity -- aka Anglo-Zionist evil. And I promise to spend the rest of my life AWAKE defending myself and my loved ones against the evil that Anglo-Zionists represents. So there you go. Give yourselves a BIG pat on the back. Cause you azz-hats helped Putin to turn the likes of me against YOU. Mazel-tov Bitches. AGS

Anonymous said...

June 16th is the probable date that Russia takes Presidency of the UN Security Council.

Alex said...

I agree with Saker and disagree with him at the same time. My heart and my conscience says - Putinn should give the order. Then, my brain asks, "What will happen, if the West responds by giving a similar order?" The Saker seems to share my opinion that the US is trying to provoke Russia to initiate a direct confrontation. Russia tries to avoid it. If a direct confrontation occurs and escalates, the number of casualties and environmental consequences will be much greater than the negative outcomes of atrocities in Ukraine. And, of course, Russia may not be able to win, and China may not be willing to join, at which point all hope for a better world will be lost forever or, at least, for a very long time. So now, I have a double knot in my stomach. Perhaps, Russia has something in the sleeve. Something like: Poroshenko is Putin's man. He has investments and businesses in Russia, he financed the Right Sector which opposed Ukraine's membership in the EU, he replaced Yanukovych who was corrupted and ineffective, he won with Victoria Nuland candidates, he said "no negotiations with Russia but, at the same time, Yatseniuk noted that Ukraine cannot do without Russian gas and the EU stated , "We are not ready to accept Ukraine's membership." I will wait to see where his actions go rather than what he says in a political speech. He still has to "normalize" the country and neutralize the neo-Fascists.

Nora said...

Saker,

Part One:

First off, re: Poroshenko's speech. We all know what he is, and also the various pressures upon him, primarily Uncle Shmuel (GREAT phrase, btw!) and Pravy Sektor essentially threatening his life should he not follow the party line. On the other side, the reality of Ukraine's economic situation vis-a-vis Russia and the EU, plus of course his chocolate factories. He said what he had to say. How he will follow through, as Putin remarked, remains to be seen. Also, does anyone really know for sure if he actually has any control over the military... But mostly, relatively few politicians have a decent record at all of keeping their promises so in that sense it's still a waiting game. Imo what bodes less well is whatever pressure McCain et. al. put on Bulgaria re: South Stream because this is primarily an economic war and Ukraine may not even be a pawn, just a square on the board with different utility for each side.

Which segues right into our feelings about that. Because of course Ukraine is more than that: we're talking about *people* here and what's been going on has been pretty fncking hideous. So, feeling: there isn't a (non-hasbara) soul on this blog who isn't writhing in agony at what's been going on -- we all share that even if our outlooks and opinions are all over the map. But thoughts and feelings literally come from two different parts of the brain (cerebral cortex and limbic system, respectively) and when they're not in synch (a not exactly rare occurrence), I always find it helpful to use my feelings as a kind of exclamation point or danger sign -- watch out, obviously something big's going on but my analysis might get skewed if I don't weight them right. So ultimately, while they're the most profound part of me, I've still got to be very careful to neither pay them no heed nor weight them too highly. I.e., they're just another data point to analyze and factor in, which you've pretty much done. But despite all our feelings here, facts are facts, and right now we're -- to continue the statistical analogy -- still in the data-collection stage, damnit.

Theodore Svedberg said...

OK saker I will tell you. I think you over-reacted to Poroshenko's inaugural speech. Poro is now in the process of putting together a new government. This will be action, not just words. If his new government continues to have Svodaba Party and Right Sector members I will join you in your despair. If that happens and the war against the east continues for another few weeks, I think Putin will put a stop to it.

Nora said...

Part Two:

So, closing the border, Mr. Nora believes, offers Russia two advantages: plausible deniability and keeping Ukies et. al. out. Also, while the car we purchased at the very same time the Union Trades Building went up in flames will always be named Odessa -- I can't look at it without seeing that strangled pregnant woman -- and plenty of other atrocities have been and I am sure are right now being committed, in point of fact they haven't yet (choke) reached the "massive" stage. Of course we all pray they don't -- and they may still -- but they really haven't yet. (And I'm saying that while having believed my entire life that any capital crime against any person for what they happen to have been born qualifies as a Holocaust: how can something that awful get worse just because there are more?)

But you yourself admit the risk of giving up on the long, hard struggle to resovereignize Russia -- well, fighting a war-war against us, as crazy and over-armed as we are, with the best case scenario ending up stuck with sinking billions into rehabilitating a country that's already a black hole of problems and debt, would certainly set back all the progress Russia has made, including the giant strides eastward this year alone. And that's what this whole thing is really about -- and Russia is winning, hands down. Now I'm no Cassandra, Lord knows, so I can't possibly promise our worst fears won't come true but, Saker, it ain't over till it's over and we're not even at the end of the beginning. Paroxysms of absolute agony, fear, rage, horror, heartbreak for things we'll never forget -- at least I hope not, they're signs at least we're still human -- and it's damned hard to sit this out not even knowing what if anything we can do about it. But there's no point expecting anyone to live up to *our* beliefs and standards except someone over whom we still have some parental controls, can in fact vote out of office in favor of someone who actually will represent us, or happen to have chosen wisely and married well. Putin, of course, is none of the above, ;~) and we've *all* got to remember that as we wait this one out.

Anonymous said...

I concur with the comment at 08 June, 2014 22:43. We are on the cusp of some sort of Russian intervention.

Whether it will take the form of 'no fly zone', 'lend lease' with DPR/LNR getting radar guided SAMs and self-propelled artillery guns through those wide open border crossings I don't see the slightest signs of either Ukraine or Russia closing, I do not know.

Perhaps Putin knowing the US/EU/UK will scream bloody murder if he so much as shoots down even one Ukrainian Su-25 with S-400s will opt for a complete blitzkrieg that encircles or destroys all Ukrainian units east of Dnepropetrovsk within 72 hours. But something big is coming. Putin is not Milosevic and China knowing the current terror campaign in Xinjiang is not a coincidence is getting more and more overt in its support of Russia. Chinese support is something Milosevic never had even after NATO deliberately bombed the ChiCom embassy the Chinese were so weak they could only fume. Now they have the capability of at least sending humanitarian aid via the SCO, as Auslander suggested they will.

The Bulgaria Southstream cancellation, done at McCain's apparent behest to boot, was a big 'f you Gazprom and Putin this is the price you will pay for dumping the holy petrodollar we can force almost anyone to tear up contracts with you law and sanctity of contracts be damned'.

Of course the price of bribing the Bulgarians is cheap compared to bribing the Germans into tearing up Gazprom/neft contracts or French into killing the Mistral deal. Maybe all they had to promise was a few permanent US military bases and continued easy access for Bulgarian migrants to the UK and Schengen zone despite all the anti-EU and anti-mass migration parties making gains in the recent elections.

Don't lose hope friends, the Nazi Guard and Right Sector beseiging Slovyiansk are going to get theirs. And no amount of Operation Storm repeat antics will succeed, even if they offer Western Ukrainians unheard of salaries to drill for shale gas outside the ruins of Slovyiansk the fact is they can't stop the NAF underground from dispersing enough C4 into holes dug in village yards to blast every single gas line from the wellheads to the pumping stations for years to come. T

The ethnic cleansing plan/Operation Storm 2.0 RIA Novosti is now reporting is the Kiev/Banderite plan will fail, if only for that reason alone. But I expect Russia to drop the hammer before they can complete the ethnic cleansing of Slovyiansk via this Geneva Conventions defying war criminal siege. Russian media can't very well report that the real Ukrainian plan is to terrorize hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians into fleeing their homes and accept Putin doing nothing!

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,

I think you are being unfairly impatient with Putin. The Russian move across the border will be the trigger for massive and unending consequences. So far Putin has been extremely careful to operate within the bounds of international law, and if he has to break with these he will only do so having exhausted all other avenues.

He has considerable scope to exert pressure with his gas supplies, and will also want to give the maximum time for the recent atrocities to get airtime.

Only when all other routes have been found wanting will he fire the starting gun, after which all bets will be off for all of us.

Anonymous said...

Obama has stated that Krim is part of Ukraine, Poroshenko has repeated this. Nix on South Stream. This is war and Putin has been asked to surrender or fight. (can't forget that the NSA probably has dirt on every European leader of importance - the better to blackmail with when simple bribery fails.) The US officials CLEARLY gave the green light for the violence and are supporting it short of overt commitment of troops. If the US wanted it to stop it would tomorrow. If Russia doesn't intervene the Russian resistance will be killed or forced out into Russia or Crimea, then there will be an attempt to regain Krim. I say this not really believing what I am seeing. The only way I can make sense of the way the situation has escalated is to assume that Russia (and China's) refusal to go along with bombing of Syria and removal of Assad resulted in a war faction gaining power behind the scenes in the US and they have decided now or never. (or then perhaps I am full of it and this is just one more terrible but 'small' conflict between major powers...) I sense that pulling back the troops from the border was taken as a sign of weakness. Horrified and disgusted to see this developing.

the pessimist

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

In the sewer that is the Western MSM, the atrocities in Novorossya have been completely suppressed. As far as the presstitutes are concerned 'the terrorists' are being defeated by the valiant Ukrainian army, fighting against 'Russian aggression'. The Groupthink, as ever, is 100%. This is the first decisive battle of WW3. The Arab Spring atrocities, the destruction of Syria and Libya, the promotion of raving fascists like Abe in Japan (his off-sider, the near eponymous Aso, has, recently, openly advocated fascist rule in Japan, to absolute indifference in the 'democratic' West)and the upsurge in terrorist atrocities aimed at China, plus the orgy of hate-crazed lies about the non-existent Tian An Men 'massacre' show that the West is Hell-bent on war. Even the maniacal rhetoric surrounding the D-Day sideshow anniversary, with its deranged claims that this was the decisive battle of WW2, the total ignoring of the vastly greater Soviet contribution, even the reflex avoidance of that hated word 'Soviet' all point to an elite in the grip of some sort of group psychosis. Read 'The Guardian's ' editorial for a master-class in arrogant self-delusion and historical mendacity. If Putin hesitates, he will be destroyed. If he acts the mad-dogs may very well launch that sneak nuclear first-strike that has been their ambition for years. Talk about 'a hard choice'.

JohnM said...

I agree with Anonymous 08 June, 2014 22:54

As for Putin's responses, perhaps it's time for an asymmetrical response.

Ukraine has not had a good look into the abyss yet. But winter is coming and from what I've read, it's going to be a cold one.

Yes, people are dying......... But Putin didn't start this and the deaths are not at his door.

You say intervene, but your post on the what ifs STILL applies.

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

In the sewer that is the Western MSM, the atrocities in Novorossya have been completely suppressed. As far as the presstitutes are concerned 'the terrorists' are being defeated by the valiant Ukrainian army, fighting against 'Russian aggression'. The Groupthink, as ever, is 100%. This is the first decisive battle of WW3. The Arab Spring atrocities, the destruction of Syria and Libya, the promotion of raving fascists like Abe in Japan (his off-sider, the near eponymous Aso, has, recently, openly advocated fascist rule in Japan, to absolute indifference in the 'democratic' West)and the upsurge in terrorist atrocities aimed at China, plus the orgy of hate-crazed lies about the non-existent Tian An Men 'massacre' show that the West is Hell-bent on war. Even the maniacal rhetoric surrounding the D-Day sideshow anniversary, with its deranged claims that this was the decisive battle of WW2, the total ignoring of the vastly greater Soviet contribution, even the reflex avoidance of that hated word 'Soviet' all point to an elite in the grip of some sort of group psychosis. Read 'The Guardian's ' editorial for a master-class in arrogant self-delusion and historical mendacity. If Putin hesitates, he will be destroyed. If he acts the mad-dogs may very well launch that sneak nuclear first-strike that has been their ambition for years. Talk about 'a hard choice'.

Anonymous said...

I think Russia will increase its covert support with new toys and thousands of rebels.

No need for invasion. No need for the world to see Russian tanks/soldiers in the open rolling through Ukraine. Why aid the enemy with propaganda material?

Putin should declare that due to the circumstances in Ukraine and the forced drafting under threat to the draftees' and their family's lives in what Putin considers a war crime, Russia will now welcome those draftees and their close family members if they refuse to follow the criminal order to act against the civilian population, "thus sparing the life of the soldier and the civilians they are sent to kill".

Alexander Mercouris said...

Dear Saker,

A brief comment since I am very busy and I intend to do a full piece on this issue on Da Russophile.

Briefly, I think a Russian intervention is inevitable and have done so from the outset of the crisis. I am on record as saying it would happen from the date of the coup back in February. However the political grounds have to be very carefully prepared since such an intervention must be (and must be seen to be not just internationally but also within Russia) as an act of last resort. Putin said as much in his interview of 4th March 2014. I think we are not quite there yet but Poroshenko's election (which I never expected to change anything) has brought that a step closer.

I should say that I do not know what form that Russian military intervention will take. One strong possibility is an increase in arms supplies to the resistance (which is what I call the insurgents in the Donbas). With the border with Russia increasingly under resistance control that becomes possible. I would have thought that weapons (anti tank and anti aircraft missiles) would make a significant difference. Secondly there was an important though little reported meeting between Rogozin and Oleg Tsariev a few days ago in which they discussed steps to maintain military production in arms factories in the eastern Ukraine including the Donbas that supply weapons to Russia. I am fairly sure that this is a "plausibly deniable" means to provide financial aid and military supplies to the resistance without appearing to do so too openly.

DonbassBrussels said...

Europe attention will be concentrated on the Soccer world cup which starts this thursday,and it will last an entire month.(of course in the US nobody cares about soccer).
It would be a good period to launch something.Also taking in consideration that NATO drills will take place in July(if I'm not wrong?).Though for Putin to intervene it is very soon or never more maybe?I do not see these NATO troups leaving Ukraine after their 'drills'.Their drills could end up to be permanent for any reason(false flag if necessary to justify their stay forever in Ukraine).Negociations about the gaz bills will normaly be concluded in Brussels this monday,with a 'positive'sign for both sides according to the french speaking press.
MSM are calming down their propaganda and in Europe they did not comment on a 'supposed victory'for the West against Putin.
They are just switching their attention to other news.


Germany and France changed their attitude towards Russia last week after the G7(not the case of the US/UK).Putin got prime time interview(20 minutes)on french TV and RADIO channels..just after the visit of Sarkozy in Sotchy,where he met Putin.Something strange suddenly changed.The US are blakmailing France with a mega penalty(10 billions concerning BNP PARIBAS ops in the US).Obama tried to convince Hollande to cancel a big naval contract for Russia without success for the moment...Fabius French foreign affairs minister even said yesterday after returning from Kiev,that:Ukraine will not join the UE because he did not see any evidence that a majority of EU countries wanted Ukraine in the UE for the moment.About NATO he even said that Ukraine should stay neutral,and that it was also the position of the US(true or not?)


MSM are saying that poroshenko is willing to stop the military ops this coming week.

http://www.romandie.com/news/Ukraine-Porochenko-veut-mettre-fin-aux-combats-dans-lEst-cette_RP/485721.rom

But when things are calming a bit down....every time Mc Cain intervenes to relaunch a threat with a new blackmail(this time Bulgaria MUST not go ahead with a signed deal for southstream).

Who is the real president in the US?Obama or Mc Cain?

And of course the UE will soon start 'sanctions' against Bulgaria if they do not obey to the Empire orders..

Nora said...

OldSkeptic,

I think you're right.

God, I wish I didn't.

And as fracking finally makes good economic sense, we can kiss goodbye (what remains of) this once-beautiful land. And be forced to pay monopoly prices on water, too.

American Kulak

Left a message 4U on the second page of the Poroshenko post.

Anonymous said...

If this goes hot between USSA and Russia I beg the Russians to consider that there are vast areas of the US that do not condone the current intervention by what many Americans consider a foreign occupation of the US Federal government apparatus. Here's hoping the first strike or retaliation targets may reflect this information.

Jo said...

Time plays against Poroshenko. In order to get the money from the IMF to be ablke to pay what he owes Russia for the gas, he is asked to make tough and unpopular cuts in subdidies and to stop the violence in the East.
Russia is in no rush to intervene despite the murders of many opponents to Kiev in the East. Russia just want to limit the death toll until Poroshenko is squeezed and will ask for negotiation in a weak position.
Putin has a dilemma but I think he'll wait.

Anonymous said...

Re: dates mentioned by Anonymous at 08 June, 2014 23:11 re: Russia taking presidency of the Security Council that Monday, my guess is Lavrov and Churkin already have resolutions ready to go presented to the Chinese calling for an immediate ceasefire and implementation of humanitarian aid corridors, immediate repairs to the destroyed civilian infrastructure of the Donbass such as water pipes and electrical lines, and the like. I expect that to be the last warning the West gets when the U.S. inevitably vetoes the resolution as 'anti-Ukrainian' and blames Russia for all of the violence. In between now and then I expect continued shelling but more brazen attacks by the NAF on the Ukrainian forces enabled by 'Grandfather Frost' and the wide open border. That would include NAF deploying remote rocket launchers, old fashioned WW2 vintage truck mounted Katyushas (that they can plausibly say came from the salt mines rather than across the border) or even some self-propelled guns counterbattery fire to give short term relief to Strelkov's men. By June 21st the Ukrainians will either be backing off looking for a ceasefire or doubling down with their US-supplied hardware and more merc reinforcements.

Which leaves the date 22 June 2014. Anybody know what happened on that day in 1944? That would be a highly symbolic date to launch a Russian blitz on the UKR forces and hit them hard and fast.

American Kulak

OldSkeptic said...

Putin has 'some' time on his side and that time has to be used wisely.

As I said ages ago in much earlier threads, it is not whether there will be a Russian intervention, it is how and when. In that Russia has no choice, because (I keep repeating) the west will escalate until it does. Worst comes to worst, NATO troops will try invading Crimea.

What it has a choice in is the exact timing and method.

Putin still has a lot of moral (ie political), economic and military setup to do first. He has to keep pushing to get an EU (especially Germany) split, break the west's MSM lockstep propaganda and so on.

And as hard as it may be to watch, greater and greater deaths and atrocities aid him in that key moral/political dimension.

We are not at the real crisis yet, I picked July or August and I'll stick by that. He has until then to get set up for the inevitable conflict and the definite severe sanctions that follow. While fending off the chance of a potential nuclear First Strike (of which there are a frightening number within the US military/political/etc elites pushing for).

Key things are those NATO troops arriving in the Ukraine (for an 'exercise') in July and what they will do. Plus US military deployments, particularly their First Strike nuclear and anti-missile defence ones.

Veritas said...

Just reposting this Saker - was on the other post you had yesterday about what Poroshenko said. Don't loose faith - patience - very difficult times but he needs to tread very very carefully and there are other ways to attack without using military means.

In regard to the borders - have you not thought that the right sector nutters might not just enter Russia now the borders are open and do something stupid? I am sure they will let through those who need help.

Dear The Saker,

I thought this article was very interesting. This is how Russia will go "to war". Not physically but economically and let Poroshenko and Co. deal with the fall out!

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/

I still strongly believe Russia will keep its cool and "attack" Chocie Boy and his Nazi chums another way. So Chocie and USG have declared war - but the response will be very different to what they are hoping.

Rgds,


Veritas

Anonymous said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6UkVl3ZFuI
I wonder how many Belarussian 'volunteers' would join in an operation to clear Novorossiya?

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

"A Bulgarian crawled out of the dead American's ass and shot the Russian." I have a similar one, except it was a Serb crawling out of a bayoneted Turk's ass who shot the Bulgarian in the back during the First Balkan War. Just over 100 years ago. Look, do not mistake the Bulgarian government as representative of the sentiments of the Bulgarian people. What happened today was a travesty and I feel humiliated that the whole world now knows that Bulgaria is a sovereign country in name only. Most Bulgarians feel this way too, and opinion polling proves that they are with Russia on the question of Ukraine. My heart goes out to the people and the brave opolchenchi of Novorossia in their fight against the nazi scum. I hope that knot in Saker's stomach is a false alarm and Putin is the Russian patriot that I think he is. Otherwise may god help us all, for we will all be truly fucked otherwise. All of us regular people regardless of nationality.

crazyivanreport said...

@ Anonymous said... 08 June, 2014 21:56

(first comment on page)

> The Saker, take a look at this

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/ .

I did. The most stupid text I ever read in last few weeks. The author writes as if both US and Russia thought how to kick butts of the greatest number of Ukrainians as possible. Only Ukies will be losers.

Daniel Rich said...

@ Juliana,

Q: but the example he gave was of Afghanistan, where Russia's involvement eventually brought down the USSR...

R: Everything's always caused by a mirage of events, so I won't simplify it too much, but the following might be part of a greater understanding;

"Schweizer noted that at the heart of Reagan’s strategy was a sophisticated effort to exploit Soviet vulnerabilities, especially its economic vulnerabilities, which included: (1) covert financial and intelligence support to the Solidarity union in Poland and other opposition groups within the Soviet empire; (2) financial and military support to the Afghan resistance; (3) cooperative efforts with Saudi Arabia to drive down the price of oil, and limiting Soviet natural gas exports to the West, thereby reducing Soviet hard currency earnings; (4) a campaign to limit Soviet access to Western high technology; (5) a technological disinformation effort to help disrupt the Soviet economy; (6) a massive U.S. defense buildup, including the SDI program, to put more pressure on Soviet economic resources; and (7) financial, military and logistical support for anti-communist forces in several Third World countries. “Reagan,” concluded Schweizer, “did have a well-developed plan seeking the demise of the Soviet Union.”- American Diplomacy.

Personally, I don't believe Raygun had to the brains to think this all through, but that can't be said about the men that surrounded him.

Macon Richardson said...

I have said in the past that while America was playing checkers, Russia was playing chess. Diana Johnstone has corrected my opinion in her new article in Counterpunch.org (http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/06/washingtons-iron-curtain-in-ukraine/).

As she correctly points out, "Putin is widely credited as being 'the best chess player', who won the first round of the Ukrainian crisis. He has no doubt done the best he could, faced with the crisis foisted on him. But the U.S. has whole ranks of pawns which Putin does not have. And this is not only a chess game, but chess combined with poker combined with Russian roulette. The United States is ready to take risks that the more prudent Russian leaders prefer to avoid… as long as possible."

The die has been cast now and certain issues settled. 1)Europe is America's whore; 2)The American government is the whore of capital; 3)Capital's need is to keep the paper dollar as the world's reserve currency. It's means are to create chaos. It's goal is to command subservience.

Take your choice, feudalism or the dark ages.

Let Russia protect her own interests. It must be clear by now that no one in Europe or the Anglosphere has any good intentions--towards anybody or anything.

America will implode. It cannot sustain the excesses of its hubris. The only question remaining is if it will chose to destroy the whole world in the process.

And that's my jeremiad for the day.

Gayle said...

Milosevic sold out his own people against a promise

Actually, I think that must be a part of the calculus for Putin here: How will the people of *all* Russia be affected if Putin reacts militarily in Ukraine?

If making a military move in Ukraine stops the bloodshed there (no guarantee), but ups the misery for Russians in Russia, whose purpose has been served?

No good answers for Putin here... I think it's going to have be boiled down to the greater good of the majority of Russians, and of the future of Russia, whatever that may be. It's certain now that many Russians are going to be harmed, no matter what he decides - the only question for Putin now is where, and how many.

Anonymous said...

"Putin should declare that due to the circumstances in Ukraine and the forced drafting under threat to the draftees' and their family's lives in what Putin considers a war crime, Russia will now welcome those draftees and their close family members if they refuse to follow the criminal order to act against the civilian population, "thus sparing the life of the soldier and the civilians they are sent to kill".

08 June, 2014 23:26

This would be a masterstroke. Of course EuroMaidanPR would insist that there are no deserters and that any who show up on Russian TV are fakes, just like they're insanely trying to insist even against the reports of less insane UKR journos like Maxim Evristavi that 12,000+ people have fled the fighting in Novorossiya, the majority to Russia/Crimea not the rest of Ukraine!

As I advocate in the newest thread, Putin should go to the UN and give a speech telling the whole world what Kiev is doing in the SE Ukraine is a war crime and calling for sanctions against...UKRAINIAN LEADERS. Turn the tables a bit and watch the DC fascists howl. Say something to the effect that Russia does not want to intervene directly in Ukraine but Russia cannot possibly be asked to ignore the suffering and misery caused by so much violence on its doorstep, literally within a 100 kilometers of her borders.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

"Putin should declare that due to the circumstances in Ukraine and the forced drafting under threat to the draftees' and their family's lives in what Putin considers a war crime, Russia will now welcome those draftees and their close family members if they refuse to follow the criminal order to act against the civilian population, "thus sparing the life of the soldier and the civilians they are sent to kill".

08 June, 2014 23:26

This would be a masterstroke. Of course EuroMaidanPR would insist that there are no deserters and that any who show up on Russian TV are fakes, just like they're insanely trying to insist even against the reports of less insane UKR journos like Maxim Evristavi that 12,000+ people have fled the fighting in Novorossiya, the majority to Russia/Crimea not the rest of Ukraine!

As I advocate in the newest thread, Putin should go to the UN and give a speech telling the whole world what Kiev is doing in the SE Ukraine is a war crime and calling for sanctions against...UKRAINIAN LEADERS. Turn the tables a bit and watch the DC fascists howl. Say something to the effect that Russia does not want to intervene directly in Ukraine but Russia cannot possibly be asked to ignore the suffering and misery caused by so much violence on its doorstep, literally within a 100 kilometers of her borders.

Russia to her admirers' great frustration has so often stumbled clumsily into the traps laid for her. Putin delaying a response for now is not discouraging me but encouraging me that VVP sees the trap of 'invasion or capitulation to the Kiev fascists' and is furiously devising ways to avoid stepping into it. One way not to is to turn the West's rhetoric about human rights and R2P against them, BEFORE invading!

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

@mulga mumlebrains:
"the non-existent Tian An Men 'massacre'"
What are you talking about here? What are you suggesting?

Anonymous said...

IMHO, I believe after what we saw in Syria, Russia will go all the way, the problem is the pro-Western part of Russia's elite (directing the economic policy) which is huge and which needed to be cleansed long ago, now is the time.

A ground intervention would be a mistake I believe, something like the non-acknowledged airstrikes of the Israelis on Sudan or Syria and elsewhere in the Middle-East would be the best, hit the Ukr army and militias VERY hard and deny everything. If the Israelis can do it, Russia can too.

herb said...

I was in Viet Nam working as a civilian refugee aid worker (and some other interesting things. I got to watch the defeat of the Americans at ground level. This was the only actual defeat of the West, and by a tiny, desperately poor country that lost ten times as many soldiers as the West and millions of its citizens in a depraved attack that expended more munitions than used in the entire of WWII. Hopefully the Russians were watching how this was done. So far the Nazis are following the same script as the illegitimate government of South Viet Nam. With a pours border asymmetrical combat can make mince meat of the Nazis. Nothing is ever what it seems with this sort of war. The chocolate covered psychopath in Kiev has reason to fear the National Guard crazies. In many ways the problem could be solved, for both sides by setting up the Guard for extermination after the East's civilians have fled to Russia as refugees.

Ya never know, they might just ask some of the Vietnamese Veterans to advise them.

herb

Anonymous said...

The USA's economy is in ruins, unemployment is now permanently high and will only rise.
The US has no bright future to look forward to, only civil unrest.
The ecosystem of the Pacific coast is being poisoned by the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.
It also has the largest military in the history of the world, and this may be its last chance to employ that advantage.

Anonymous said...

I can only say this....if Russia prevails...you will have the raise of "BRICS"....which will mean the collapse of the Ruling West"....if the West prevails you will have the end of "BRICS" and everything that is positive and hopeful....you will have the complete enslavement for all of the worlds popuation...and i dont for as second think that Putin will stand back and let that happen...not for a second!!!! it may ....and probably will bring on the 3rd. world war....so be it....no loss to the Universe!!!! but he is not a person that turns his back....on Russia or himself...the West is Evil....Dark....and at its End....do not Fear....Putin is not Alone....nor will he act Alone....what ever happens next....is what should happen....this is a struggle between Darkness and the Light....i am not a religious person...its more that the progression of Human history has now reached a point of either sinking or swimming....we cannot continue down this same road without some change....500 years give or take is enough....dont be afraid!!!!

Daruma Doll said...

They have already left after some 30 of their men got killed in the Donetsk airport.

the pug said...

russian foreign minister Lavrov should do a daily press conference in English describng exactly what is happening as a counterweight to MSM propaganda, maybe even do a speaking tour of the US and Europe.

Anonymous said...

Putin has to start taking lessons from the US empire.

Car bombs in Kiev, mysterious deaths in the Saudi royal family, "mercenaries" and equipment to E. Ukraine, secret financial support for the National Front, the NDP, and Golden Dawn, outing EU corruption, military advisers to Syria, but most of all, money and arms to the American militia movement. It's time to take the war to the beast, who has no honor and no scruples.

There are millions in the "West" who would welcome such actions -- and open a front in the enemy's rear.

-Armenian Catholic

Shelia Cassidy said...

Dear Saker -

I don't know what Putin has in mind, but I do know that the crazies in the Pentagon want a nuclear war because they economy in United States is failing. The 217,000 new jobs weren't really there according to Paul Craig Roberts, and he should know, having been an assistant treasury secretary under Reagan. He says that all the announcements about the economy coming back are just so much hot air. So the Empire needs a war, to distract the people, or should I call them sheeple, since they don't think too much anymore.
Like you, I haven't had a not like this in my case, since the Iraq war, or should I call it the invasion of Iraq. But I don't think Russia can just intervened this time because they are trying to sucker into a nuclear war. There is enough crazies in the government that are willing to trade millions of American deaths to get rid of Russia once and for all. And until we all face this fact, that Europeans and Americans are expendable to these filth that run our governments, we will never be able to face what we have to do.
As much as I hate to say it, what Putin may be looking at now, is balancing the lives of Novorossia against the billions that will be killed in the event of a nuclear war. Is he playing for time? I think it's highly possible. After all, I don't think there is one military strategist that will tell you to go to war unless you have a chance to beat the holy crap out of the son of a bitch you are facing. I don't usually use words like this but now you can see just what's in my heart, too. I'm crying as I write this, and know that Russia has to rearm fully before facing NATO. What's happening now is going to take the utmost discipline at the same time that the heart is probably breaking at every death. We don't need Russia committing suicide, we need Russia to rearm to where she can put a stop to this, once and for all. In the meantime, the satanic West is being exposed for what it is--a rapacious, murdering, beast from a sea of peoples. The West still follows the policy laid out in the Grand Chessboard, and well until it's overthrown, once and for all. In the meantime, we must try to alert our neighbors and whoever will listen to us about the travesties being committed in our name. Sorry for such a long post, Saker, but I guess you can see how angry I am, and how upset. More than ever, we need to play for time to respond with the utmost strength.

God bless,

Anonymous said...

Terrific article. Absolutely right on. You have seen to the heart of the matter. Putin will now show what he really is. He will be revealed. This is indeed the fate of the planet. Thanks for your sharp wisdom. The truth gives me faith.
Is there any way to get a message to Putin? Maybe he has suffered a personal threat so deep, he is unable to go forward. I fear the same way you do. Novorossiya is the front line of the battle for the whole planet. God save us. Pray for Putin's strength.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Shelia Cassidy:Sorry for such a long post, Saker, but I guess you can see how angry I am, and how upset. More than ever, we need to play for time to respond with the utmost strength.

Dear Sheila, I could hardly blame you for your anger when I am myself seething in rage over it all :-) In fact, I thank you for your anger as it makes me feel less lonely. And I agree with your advice that we need to play for time, but I am torn because I also feel that the people of Novorossia don't have that time any more. When there was a weird, slow and, frankly, pathetic little war taking place I could wait, but now that multiple rocket launchers and cluster bombs are used on civilians I feel very reluctant to play for more time. I agree, its a hard and tragic call, but at the very least I think that the Ukie forces in the Donbass who are directly responsible for these massacres deserve some karmic retribution. That would send a signal to the others and show the locals that they have not been abandoned or forgotten.

Kind regards,

The Saker

les said...

To the Saker

Take to the air, fly high, soar and open your eyes. This is not Serbia. Covert aid has not been used to any significant degree. Covert recruitment has not even been tried.

If the US could covertly recruit and transport a minimum of 10,000 Tunisians, 15,000 Libyans, 5000 Saudis 20,000 Iraqis, 25,000 MEK, plus an assortment of other crazies to fight in Syria - then certainly some good men can be found to defend legitimate homeland issues.

There will be no invasion - yet.

Afghanistan taught one invaluable lesson being used wisely right now. A standing army invasion invites polarization against it, invites covert outside funded action against it, invites international action against it.

Yes the world is watching. The people of Novorussia have yet to take a stand. They have weapons, but the locals still have not shown up in any significant numbers. Perhaps Poroshenko's speech will help with that. Until they do, open involvement is out of the question.

But let's remember, there are many many options by which He can achieve his goals.

Putin not walking out allows him to take the measure of those men. While it creates the impression you fear, it also gives him far more options that will later be a surprise.

Putin walking out lets them take the measure of Putin -enables them to predict and prepare.

I said to a friend a while back. What Putin says he will do, he will do. That is a trait that in international politics is a profound political weakness. So in important situations, Putin acts first and speaks later. It is best he did not speak. Let's wait to see his actions. I believe we can wait with hope and I believe that we will be surprised.

Anonymous said...

Hi,
Milosevic never really turned his back on us (Bosnian Serbs). He did impose some kind of sanctions, that of course were only for media, but we had enough weapons and almost all of our men were mobilized. Borders to Serbia were under our control and we could cross them whenever we wanted. But the situation was different, because we use to have mandatory army service at the time, so most of people had basic knowledge of weapons and military strategy. Our general Ratko Mladic was extremely skilled and he organized people impeccably. And plus they simultaneously started with military operations in all cities that were planned to be in Rep. Srpska and connected those areas pretty fast. Bos. and Cro. forces were stretched from west east to south of Bosnia, Serbs kind of circled them and they simply didn’t have enough people to cover front lines. Some cities were completely safe because the artillery couldn’t reach them, which lowered our dependence form Serbia. Our refugees were sent in those areas instead to Serbia, so the civilians had a chance to work and help army in some way. In negotiations, we lost 25 ish% of our territory, again thanks to firm attitude of president Karadzic and general Mladic, Milosevic wouldn’t dare to contradict them too much. We do have Republic of Srpska now as part of Bosnia, but only because there was no way for us to step back. Milosevic gave away Rep. Srpska Krajina (now part of Croatia where Serbs don’t exist anymore) but they unfortunately depended on Serbia too much, and I think Milosevic was afraid of Mladic, so he didn’t sell us out. Of course Milosevic was doing what he thought was right, he had no back up, Russia was on its knees and the whole world was against us, he wasn’t a traitor, just naïve as Putin is now and it was important to save lives, they would kill all of us if they could, we just couldn’t imagine that people like that exist and he was being politician trying to negotiate, but there is no negotiation with them they will break every deal.
Whereas in Novorussia they have relatively small area under control, so Ukr.army is concentrated on that area only. My opinion is, if they made corridors from Kharkov to Odessa and formed separation lines Ukr. wouldn’t stand a chance. But that’s where the problem of simultaneous organization and unified command is emerging and of course untrained civilians. We expected Russia to organize people of east and south just in case, during protests. Right know It think, that only direct intervention would bring results, because they are too afraid of Russian forces and they would just flee. Any undercover organization would cost too many lives. It’s doable, but why waste peoples’ lives? Russians will get sanctions whatever they do, Putin will be marked as dictator whatever he does. I have no idea why they are bothering with them seriously, they can do whatever they want no one would go to war against Russia, Nato was afraid to enter Serbia let alone Russia.
Best,

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Anonymous:Milosevic never really turned his back on us (Bosnian Serbs).

I disagree. That he failed at it is no credit of his, but the result of the refusal of a huge amount of Serbs to obey his criminal orders. And yes, he was afraid of Mladic. And not only of Mladic. So the blockade never worked, but he tried. As you mention, he gave up on the Serbian UNPAs in the Krajina but, frankly, it was harder for him to act there. But then he did betray the Serbs of Kosovo. He is definitely an unprincipled sellout, imho.

Kind regards,

The Saker

Observer said...

@American Russophile,

I have to agree, the uncle Schmuel crack was uncalled for; i felt a visceral revulsion to that. The major players in the UK and US that foment these types of actions are the Old Anglos (Saker's term), and let's not forget the BND's dirty role in the maidan fake protest movement (klitcho is their boy).

Gayle said...

@Les:

The people of Novorussia have yet to take a stand. They have weapons, but the locals still have not shown up in any significant numbers.

Yes. This.

I was hoping to hear in Strelkov's recent statement some indication that the numbers of the insurgency were growing significantly, but could find no such assurance (did I miss something?). Without this essential first step, what good reason does Putin have to take overt military action?

Anonymous said...

@ 09 June, 2014 00:23

"money and arms to the American militia movement" NO NO NO. This would be the DC fascist's wet dream and would finally give the DHStapo the perfect pretext to start rounding up patriot movement leaders under ND double A as they've been planning to do for years. Meaning either everyone in the Patriot/III% movement suddenly is found to have child porn on their computers, has 'heart attacks' car accidents, or simply gets arrested and gagged like what would've happened to Snowden had he 'faced the music'. All of this fascist police state crackdown could be carried out to the cheers of the fake Left like the Southern Poverty [Pimp] Law Center, Bob Cesca & the NSA groupie Obamabots at the Daily Banter, PMSNBC, [Billary] Clinton News Network, and all their other propaganda mouthpieces. No. Hell no. The Patriot movement does not need an ounce of foreign support, it only needs more Americans to wake up and start prepping. All the guns and ammo in the world is damned useless unless people can FEED THEMSELVES AND THEIR FAMILIES when SHTF. Prepping and learning practical surival skills is 10 x more important in this sense than marksmanship. Save all that Rambo guerilla army of one horsecrap for the keyboard commandos (I hope you hear me Nora and realize I'm not one of those idiots)!

As I mentioned with links in a previous thread, the feds' propaganda trolls online are already trying to fabricate a vast Kremlin conspiracy to help America's 'neo-Confederate insurrectionist' 'bitter clingers' by the mere act of Russian Tula works/arms manufacturers making good money off the U.S. civilian arms market.

http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/03/the-problem-with-the-pauls/
NY Young Republican Club: testing ground for fake Right CIA sock puppetry against Patriots/Ron Paul supporters

http://nyyrc.com/blog/2014/04/russias-secessionist-strategy-exposed/

The Golden Dawn IMO are controlled oppo fascist riff raff who, unlike Jobbik or France's FN, cannot shed extremism and become non-fascist Euroskeptic/Gaullist parties that millions can actually vote for. Greece badly needs some sort of fusionist or even neo-monarchist party that can bring in people from its still strong Left as well as disillusioned Orthodox believers from the 'Right' who recognize Golden Dawn for what it is -- fake opposition that tricks Orthodox into supporting a party whose very name invokes the Occult. GD is designed to give the EUrocrats and NATO an excuse to pull a Prague Spring 68' style crackdown and roll paratroopers into Athens should the Greek people finally revolt and demand their drachmae back! Ditto if a Greek government even thinks about offering Russia or China long term port leases!

http://rt.com/shows/the-truthseeker/162864-us-plans-strike-russia/

Remember as RT's Truthseeker show reported recently NATO has secret agreements between intelligence services and militaries to overthrow ANY government that steps too far out of line, and at the height of the Cold War during the 1950s and into the early 60s Wehrmacht veterans maintained kill lists of Socialists to murder who they thought would have to be eliminated before they could collaborate with the invading Red Army. Such are the roots of 'Gladio' aka the NATO Deep State.

American Kulak

Man From Atlan said...

Hi, Saker, Bloomberg reports the following: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-06-07/poroshenko-sworn-in-as-ukraine-s-president

"Ukraine’s new leader, Petro Poroshenko, has agreed to start talks with an envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending separatist violence in the former Soviet republic’s easternmost regions."

the pug said...

If the bandera fascists are going to come and take all the males 18-40 and shoot them through the head in the forest, then it's better to run to the east and join the resistance so thatt you at least have a chance at survivial.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 23:34

Grow a spine.

Anonymous said...

@VINEYARDSAKER

You surely are keenly followed by many of us Serbians ... including in Serbian language, translated in part or in full. Check, for instance http://ruskarec.ru/news/2014/06/07/putin_naredio_da_se_pojaca_kontrola_na_granici_sa_ukrajinom_31189.html (etc., etc...)

The time for Putin to act in Новороссия is now.

Nora said...

American Kulak,

I do. And yes, absolutely, right now the issue isn't guns, it's food -- and buying seeds isn't enough either, you've got to learn how to grow and *preserve* your food. Because you're more than likely going to need it This. Winter.

But please, I really am eager to hear your response to what I said on the other post! We. Really. Need. To. Talk. (Okay, I am a woman so here I am saying that... ;~) But still -- our two sides could really get something done if we started working together -- we do have the same enemies, you know, and we would have the power of numbers if we started fighting together for the same things, instead of sniping at each other. There's a lot of power in that, American Kulak, and we're just wasting it.

Anonymous said...

USA have four goals: 1. Extend the encirclement of Russia to get the missile shield effective. 2. To justify increased spending in the high tech defense industry they need another superpower as an enemy. 3. USA want to keep the energy prices high to protect its fracking industry and LNG producers. The price of oil and gas is on the verge of collapsing because of the enormous investment in development of new fields in the last 15 years. The smart way to solve this problem is to get Russian oil and gas banned from the European market. 5. Ukrainian style regime change in Russia.

Anonymous said...

@ Nora 09 June, 2014 02:18

"There's a lot of power in that, American Kulak, and we're just wasting it." I agree. The point I was making is I understand clearly food and control over food is far more decisive in the enslavement of a huge country like the U.S. than 100s of millions of guns, whether in the hands of the State or the People. If people are starving they cannot put up much resistance. The same goes for if people are kept on the dole. The homeland of Panem in the Hunger Games series is a reference to the Latin for 'bread and circuses'. The U.S. certainly will have its circuses until the end but the elites have to be getting worried that even with 1/3rd of this nation's households on food stamps people are going to wake up.

Mao certainly understood that when he took over China. So did Stalin which is why my name is American Kulak. It is a reference to some ancestors of my Russian wife who resisted 'Uncle Joe's forcible collectivization and survived.

I will try to think more constructively and offer links when and where I can to useful prepping that even people with the most limited resources can use. That lots of Russian and Eastern Ukrainian villagers know but Americans grandparents were unable to pass on to their boomer kids or their grandkids.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

I actaully don't know much about Milosevic, but the description of him you provide is very different from the one I get from Chris Hedges. Hedges describes Milosevic as pig-headed fascist and ltra-nationalist. According to Hedges he is more like Stepan Bandera or Mussolini.

Anonymous said...

@American Kulak

Re the Golden Dawn: You don't know what you are talking about.

You probably pride your self in being immune to the to the "western" MSM rantings, yet, your commentary is PREMISED on the description of GD as neo-nazis; the demonisation of the same "western" MSM.

Your beloved FN and Jobbik are equally demonised you know.

Finally, to all, the nazi this and fascist that has to STOP in discussing current affairs. The nazi thing ended 70 years ago and the CONSTANT mention of it is bizzare! Anyone who resorts to these terms in discussions of current affairs should realize he has allowed himself to be used.

Anonymous said...

Patience! Full intervention is the last resort - after all, this is a battle for hearts and minds as much as it is for land and people. Any military involvement will almost immediately erase all of the gains that Putin and Russia have made in that regard.

I can't fully understand the reason for this, but commenters on this site seem to so easily forget that Putin and Russia have one more non-lethal weapon which WILL be used and MUST be given time to effectively work. Gazprom gave the Ukrainians and Eurocrats an ultimatum that if they don't receive their money by Tuesday, they will find their pipes very empty. The EU knows that it's own energy supplies depend on transit through Ukraine and Russia will hold the EU directly responsible for gas debt. If you want to own Ukraine, you will have to shoulder the burden of all that entails - you can't have your cake and eat it too.

No matter how virulent their propaganda, Porosenko (little Miss Piggy) will have to deal with an enormous public reaction once people can't fire up their stoves. It's also difficult to transmit your message to the people if there is no electricity to power televisions. The only problem with this strategy is that it will definitely catalyze the extreme right - many will turn to them who may have never harbored Nazi sentiments before (just like in Greece).

This policy will also have a massive effect on EU Russia relations. But it's not the politicians I'm worried about, it's the common folk, both European and Ukrainian. The battle is for their hearts and minds and shutting off the gas will illicit a profound and unpredictable reaction from the general population.

Anonymous said...

I am amazed that most commentators seem to disregard or ignore a minor detail... Up to May 7th, V.V.P. seemed ready to intervene in Eastern Ukraine... then he met with the Swiss president, chairperson-in-office of the OSCE, Didier Burkhalter... A few days before the encounter, some American sources leaked that they had detected some $ 40 billions tucked away in Western banks, belonging to comrade Vova... After the meeting with the Swiss president, Putin did fire a nuclear missile - just testing - but became strangely less enthusiastic about invading Ukraine... do I have to stress that Burkhalter is Swiss and that if Putin is not cooperative his billions would be frozen and he could not even make a fuss about it ?

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@American Russophile: Lastly your calling Uncle Sam Uncle Shmuel is not in very good taste

Wait, so saying Uncle Sam is ok but not Uncle Shmuel? Then, just look at the key players in this and you will see plenty of "Shmuels" aka the Neocons who have been pushing the US policy on that, especially Ms Nuland. Speaking of Uncle Shmuel has nothing to do with anti-Semitism and everything to do with simply showing that Uncle Sam often seems to be afflicted by multiple personality disorder, including a Shmuel one. Finally, it has become a crime of bad taste to mention ANY bad role for ANY Jews. Here, on this blog, I praise those Jews whom I feel like praising and I denounce those which I believe deserve denunciation. And while this policy might be hard to understand (and a royal pain in the butt to stick to!), I will not be deterred from it by either side who would want me to shut up and conform to their idea of propriety. I have always treated Jews like any other group. If the fingerprints of the US Neocons were not all over the place I would not have to point it out, but since they are I will not pretend like I don't see it.

And if that get's me in trouble with the Jew haters on one hand and the doublepluspolicitcallycorrect crowd on the other - so be it. I put the truth above somebody else's definition of good taste, sorry :-)

Cheers and kind regards,

The Saker

Nora said...

American Kulak,

YES! I've tried here to get people to realize how important that seemingly simple wealth of knowledge is -- but the point is, we're not talking some abstract time *in the future* -- we're talking right now! Here, take a look at this week's Drought Monitor Map:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/mapsanddata/maparchive.aspx

It's not *just* California, look at the rest of where most of our food is grown. Then recognize that China is buying increasing amounts of our beef and grain, and realize that we're not *just* talking higher prices here, we're talking actual shortages. And I'm worried about the average American family here, not just those on food stamps. Most of what people eat here is corn-based -- it's in everything -- and there is *not* going to be enough of it. You worry about the riots and gov't repression but our population is so passive they may or may not happen. I worry about the hunger, it *will* happen, and we don't have strong enough social cohesion for people to help one another, so lawlessness will happen too -- and not just along our racial/ethnic fissure lines, it'll happen everywhere. During the Depression, people helped each other out -- we *really* need to get back to that ethos, it's the only thing that will save us, frankly.

Nora said...

American Kulak

"I understand clearly food and control over food is far more decisive in the enslavement of a huge country like the U.S. than 100s of millions of guns, whether in the hands of the State or the People."

But who has control over our food? There's a real class divide there too -- most family farmers need working wives and take second and sometimes even third jobs while corporations lobby Congress and get what they want and more than a few farm-state Congresscritters manage to get themselves incredible subsidies for their own corporate farms. Here's the WaPo:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/11/farms-are-gigantic-now-even-the-family-owned-ones/

Try this for more info on what's really going on: http://realtruth.org/articles/100607-006-family.html The first part is a pretty good summary of what's going on, then they moralize some (fwiw, I don't quite agree with all of it, but I do agree with a lot; I'm guessing you'll agree with most of it).

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,

Most of us do feel not just with you, but also with the innocent people of Novorosia for now we can just watch, but at the same time I know they are helped as much as possible.
Chocolate Porosenko was reading what was prepared for him to read as it is prepared for the every single clown representing the Empire.
I'm very hopeful that after Porosenko's meeting with Putin situation will change even the big Sam will expect to have a different result........
European leaders are in a such a stress because they know they are going to be removed immediately if they don't follow the uncle's direction and they could be killed in no time like the all former Polish government.

It was mentioned in the previous blog that we are just before the light exposure and I do really agree with this comparison. Yes, right now we are at the Stalingrad and behind the Stalingrad and Putin is the 90% of the world to finally end these 500 years of atrocities and I'm positive that if the Russian's are not going to be able to fight enough the Uncle Sam the rest of the world will come to help I have NO doubt about this.

The Trojan horse is waiting in the garage for the right moment and don't worry, be happy everything will be solved in the very elegant way.
I send you a lots of peaceful hugs maybe it will help you a bit

Auslander said...

Saker and all,

Be calm. I told you in the beginning that Novorossiya would pay a heavy price in blood for their freedom. I was not joking and I am not wrong. They will pay a terrible price and are paying as we speak.

The difference between Novorossiya and we in Krim is three fold. We have Sevastopol, we have Krim, traditionally Russia, and we instantly understood the threats from Yarush and Tyagnibok after the coup disaster in Kiev. In three days we had seized our Krim and Sevastopol governments, ousted the Kiev appointed back stabbers and in some cases locked them up, and had 25,000 men and women mobilized to defend us, albeit with clubs the first two days.

It was not Russian troops that first blocked the Ukes in their bases, it was US. It was not Russian troops that secured the Krim Rada that fateful dawn, it was US. It was not Russian Navy personnel that told the Ukes if they moved any of their rusting fleet 1 mm they would be burned and sunk on the spot, it was US.

Donetsk and Lugansk did not do what we did and now they are paying the price. Will Russia overtly come in? I don't think so unless there is a mass killing such as was in Ossetia. Will that happen? Yes, no doubt. Will Russia sacrifice Novorossiya on the altar of diplomacy? No, absolutely not.

However, as long as I see crowds of strapping young men wandering around and filming the death and destruction in Novorossiya I know Mother will not come in overtly.

Again, all of you be calm. Lament the dead and wounded, pray for them. Know that their sacrifice will not be in vain.

Diplomacy is a cold and hard business. Mr. Putin is the premier diplomat of our time, bar none. He will not act from emotion, he will act when his time is right. We don't know when that time will be but he does.

As for us in Sevastopol, we are sitting on Ground Zero, we are the Crown Jewel. We know that. If the Copenhagen happens we will again man our barricades. I am an old man now, too old to join the younger men up north or I would not be sitting here writing. I have not forgotten how to use an automat nor has my wife. We will both fight the enemy to the death if they try to take our city. That is not bravado, that is not emotion speaking, that is a simple fact. The enemy had better understand that fact, we will fight until we kill them or they kill us, pure and simple. A visitor to our city said two days ago after talking to some of us 'my God, these people are more Russian than we are!'. That is it in a nutshell. We are RUSSIAN, WE are RUSSIA.

Novorossiya is not. Yet.

BB said...

Seems to me that people believe only what they are told. So, look to the media to see how much of those beliefs are garnered from there.

Or, check this out. It's about globalisation.
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/sottnet/2014/06/08/dissecting-globalistan-interview-with-pepe-escobar

Matt Janovic said...

I am not saying that in Kiev they are nazis, just that the Social-National Party of Ukraine of Tyahnybok and Parubiy was a nazi-leaning party that became Svoboda, a very important party in euromaidan. They honor the SS divisions and the OUN, that was in charge of the 1941 Lviv pogrom.

Add to that Tymoshenko’s promise to nuke 8 million Russians and to incinerate Russia, add to that Kolomoisky’s $10,000 bounty on Moskaly heads, and you have a a pretty solid connection to Hitler.

I think that we should mention that, particularly when speaking to Jews.

Matt Janovic said...

Why should not a few Russian crews volunteer with their GRADs, and a few volunteering officers? And a few observation drones.
Plus a couple of anti-aircraft systems.
Why should that not be sufficient to turn the battle around?
Remember that US policy is in the hands of the furies, Samantha, Susan, and Victoria. If the Russian army enters, Nato will also enter, and nuclear war is likely.

Arius said...

Saker, I have a Russian friend that told me not to overly worry, that today's Russia is not the Russia of the late 1990's.

You are right to be concerned. The fault line between the East and the West runs through Ukraine and Syria. The future is being decided in our time just as the future of Europe was being decided in the early 1930's.

I just cannot accept that the future world for my children will be a neo-liberal fantasy land of Hollywood, Wall Street, and the rule of Western Corporatism.

Book Adams said...

http://israilistanbul.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/7_wa.jpg

http://i1275.photobucket.com/albums/y456/venomous15/Putinism/PutinJews/putinpresidentrussia_zps2d0891e7.jpg

http://www.yalibnan.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/putin-in-israel1-300x216.jpg

Putin takes his orders from Tel Aviv just like Obama and Merkel.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous who asked about Mumblebrain's statement about the non-existent Tiananmen ''massacre''. The article is by Gregory Clark, a respected former Australian diplomat who also busted the myth about China's 1962 ``invasion'' of India.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tiananmen-square-massacre-myth-all-were-remembering-are-british-lies-1451053

Ilja Schmelzer said...

Regarding the border protection, is it clear about which type of border violations the order is really about?

In a comment of a German newpaper someone has claimed that there are now some Russian planes flying on the Russian side of the border - reasonable, last but not least the border has been violated by Ukr airplanes during the fights near the border.

So, in fact it may be simply a de facto no fly zone near the border for Ukr airplanes. Any other information?

Iskander said...

Dear Saker,

I haven't commented much on your blog, and perhaps you even lumped me into the "crazies" category for calling for an intervention about 10 days ago.

But as you pointed out, being Serbian we have seen this movie before and the patterns are repeating themselves. Putin did the right thing in the beginning, and he probably thought he could win the propaganda war with all the evidence coming out and being posted online.

However, no matter how many video clips and other evidence is posted online, the fact is that these news don't reach the western audience except if they search for it actively via Google. Somewhere in some FSB office they must have reached this conclusion also, i.e. that their propaganda has been "nullified" by the effective "gatekeeping" here in the West.

This was exactly the same situation Milosevic found himself in. There was overwhelming evidence that Croats and Bosnians were armed by Western countries and that foreigners were pouring in to fight - but nobody in the west heard about it until 10 years later.

Like you said, Milosevic made the mistake of thinking he could make a deal with the Devil. In his naivety he thought he could "play" the AngloZionist 1%. Fatal mistake.

I made a "prediction" at home last week that Putin wouldn't make any decisions until after the D-day celebrations and his chat with Poroshenko.

If the ATO continues with the same ferocity after "Poroshenko's week" and Putin does not intervene directly in some way or form then I think we can conclude that he is walking down the same path as Milosevic.

Until then I still have hope that Putin hasn't lost his marbles and is simply trying to exhaust all other options before he launches himself into a situation that will become even more fluid and difficult to manage (i.e. military action in Ukraine and all the following consequences).

So, let's try and have some "ice" in the stomach for one more week before we break the seal on the 15 year old Shljivovitsa.

Anonymous said...

Apparently neither Saker nor anyone else here believes the reports that 300 NG/RS perish per week out of a force of only 4,500 committed young nazies. If this is true and Russia's short term goal is "battlefield denazification", Putin does not want the battle to end for another 8 weeks and Porosh willbeglad to see less blackmailers ready to do him harm. Notice that Strelkov announcedthat they rpg'd two trucks worth of ng and nobody in the media wants to acknowledge that. That means thewestern media canbe helpng Putin by not getting the west riled up by a stealth defeat of the ng and rs in donetsk and lugansk.

However, i want to know more about the statement above that Chechens ran away from Donetsk after that right sector attack?!!

How effective us the ukr drone and IR technology vs the Russians?

Anonymous said...

Dont panic
The atrocities are not that high,I come from Croatia,my hometown was bombarded much more than Slavyansk from the Serbs,people just have to start living with it. There is always time to go to war,it is never to late.
About Porosenkos speach,what have you expected? He has to be very careful not to provoke Natzis near him,we will see what his deeds are,speaches are quickly forgotten.People from SE Ukraine must mobilize much more manpower,this is way to little for such a big region (7mil.)

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Anonymous 00.12, of course there was no Tian An Men 'massacre'. Work from first principles. Who said that there was? Yes, that's right-Uncle Satan and his lying minions in the Western MSM and stooge regimes. They lie about everything, certainly in regard to China towards which they have been utterly aggressive since 1949, if not since the Opium Wars.
My father, a journalist, soon learned from his 'sources' that the propaganda narrative was crap. The story kept mutating, the massacre moving from the Square to the area around the Square, to other parts of Beijing. The numbers killed varied wildly, the atrocities became more lurid and unbelievable ie it was standard Western Rightwing agit-prop and hate-mongering, with the presstitutes' usual hysteria, projection, wishful thinking and psychopathy running amuk. What you expect from lying scum who never disappoint.
Soon after (although for me, the Chinese Government's denials were good enough)various eye-witnesses came forward and it became plain that no 'massacre' occurred in the square, save for troops killed by armed agitators, many of whom, it transpired, were Hong Kong triad thugs employed by Uncle Satan. A new source revealed in a Wikileaks cable from the US Ambassador in July 1989, is a Chilean diplomat who reported that the troops peacefully cleared the Square with no deaths.
What happened in Beijing was the prototype 'Colour Revolution' by the USA, and it was defeated. Even the basest idiot knew that Uncle Satan was behind this project as soon as the hideous 'Goddess of Liberty' was wheeled out, for Western public consumption. Any Chinese identifying with the USA, then or now, is, in my opinion, an imbecile, a compradore or a traitor. Even the guru of Colour Revolutions, Gene Sharp was in Beijing just prior to the attempted seizure of power.
The Chinese Government averted the fate of the USSR by acting, and preserved its country's independence, which will be so vital if Uncle Satan's diabolical rule is to be overthrown. To avert China falling into the hands of Chinese Yeltsins, one hundred real massacres would not be too great a price. But no massacre occurred, although people died as violent thugs attacked the troops, and for that, as in most things evil, Uncle Satan bears the blame. As for 'Uncle Shmuel'- what can be wrong with an expression that illuminates the undeniable truth that the USA, like most of the West, is utterly controlled by its Jewish Lobbies. Only, you can't really call a group that controls politics, finance, the MSM and the entertainment businesses a 'Lobby'.

Wim Roffel said...

@the Saker

I agree with American Russophile that calling Uncle Sam Uncle Shmuel is not in very good taste

You might just as well start with the message that you think Hitler is a great guy: in many Western countries it will have the same effect that most people classify you as a neo-nazi and discard the rest you write. That means you are unnecessarily restricting your audience.

It looks like in many cases you use the word Jew as a synonym for neocon. So my suggestion would be that you use the latter term (neocon) as it is not contaminated.

Anonymous said...

Mister Saker, everything is more or less OK, but I don't agree on two things

First, Putin should not intervene at all. You cannot invade other country just like that. If people of Novorussia want freedom they are supposed to fight for it. Not fight on facebook or twitter, but to massively join to Donbas Army.


Second, please don't make comparisons between war in Ukraine and war in former Yugoslavia. They have no any similarities. And do not support Serbian side without hearing other sides of that war.
It is friendly advice.

Matt Janovic said...

I checked yesterday the views of the international press on the siege of Slavyansk. Obviously an imaginary event, since the international press had not heard about it.

I checked this morning again, on New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian, Independent, Telegraph, Liberation (in Paris), La Stampa, Corriere della Sera, La Repubblica: total radio silence.

Fortunately, the Western media good name and honor were saved by one voice of heart-felt concern, from Le Monde.

There you can view a brief video of burning buildings from AFP, under the title “Sloviansk pilonnée par les séparatistes.” Translation: “Slavyansk pillaged by the separatists”. The article explains that in Slaviansk, the pillage of the city by pro-Russian separatists provoked numerous fires on Sunday June 8.

At AFP website, they propose videos showing "Slavyansk shelled by pro-Russian separatists"

Matt Janovic said...

A new piece in CNN today. The writers appear personally neutral, and surprisingly seem to even betray a certain sarcasm, in their title: Slavyansk burns as new Ukrainian President yearns for peace.

Vince Noble said...

I agree with you Saker, I find it very suspicious why after their assurances that they will intervene if Russians' lives and interests were threatened, Putin and Lavrov have gone completely silent, and no intervention is forthcoming from Russia.

There is one thing that keeps popping into my head, like an obsessive thought, kind of a devil's advocate musing:

what if, like in the case of Saddam Hussein, Russia's military capability is greatly over-exagerrated, particularly their nuclear ability?
What if Putin does not have in fact the means of his ambitions, and is concerned that by invading, he will show Russia's weakness?

This is worth bearing into account, and that might be why the US are so daring in their NATO pushes eastwards.

Vince Noble said...

I agree with you Saker, I find it very suspicious why after their assurances that they will intervene if Russians' lives and interests were threatened, Putin and Lavrov have gone completely silent, and no intervention is forthcoming from Russia.

There is one thing that keeps popping into my head, like an obsessive thought, kind of a devil's advocate musing:

what if, like in the case of Saddam Hussein, Russia's military capability is greatly over-exagerrated, particularly their nuclear ability?
What if Putin does not have in fact the means of his ambitions, and is concerned that by invading, he will show Russia's weakness?

This is worth bearing into account, and that might be why the US are so daring in their NATO pushes eastwards.

KC said...

Can you link to some more information about the Milosevic sell out. I have read Parenti's book on Yugoslavia but I don't remember reading this part.

Anonymous said...

We must not be angry with Putin. It isn't he who caused the bloodshed in Donbass, but rather the cartel of NATO, the EU, UN and US. Still, why has Putin hesitated to help? It seems to me he's changed somehow over the weeks since he accepted Crimea. He not longer behaves like the courageous, altruistic, and strategically brilliant man he was. I'm afraid something has happened to him. What we need to be asking is: what threat could the cartel pose to neutralize a man like Putin? He has too much wealth and integrity to be bought or tempted with promises. It must be something much worse. A threat to something more dear to him than life. Please, people, think. What could it be? What horror might the cartel have threatened to silence a man like Putin? Knowing the answer could help save Novorossiya.

Putin is a great man of tremendous altruism and integrity. He would never willfully desert people of Russian heritage. This is a given.

Anonymous said...

Ladies and gentlemen, stout hearts and strength. Grandfather Frost and the Ice Princess are very busy from what I hear.

Anonymous said...

Dear friends of Novorossiya:

What's wrong with this picture? My husband gave $30,000 he didn't have to defend his son against charges of a victimless crime. If everyone in Donbass gave 15% this much to the cause of Novorossiya, it would be more than the entire annual budget of Ukraine! Wouldn't they then have a well-paid well-equipt army? So why do these poeple sit on their bums and complain about being attacked? Freedom isn't free!

I've stocked up 2 years worth of food, and I'm thousands of miles from any conflict. Why should the people of Slavyansk not have done the same? I've seen how pretty their villages are. Are they spoiled or just lazy? I've led movements. I know how hard it is to get people up off their rears into action. I yelled, screamed, wrote fliers with lots of exclamations marks, and didn't take no for an answer from anyone!

I've wept over Novorossiya. I care a great deal. But I'm starting to wonder why the people aren't doing more to help themselves! Maybe Putin is wondering that too!

Please let me know if I'm wrong. I want to see Novorossiya win!

Anonymous said...

Putin is not Milosevic as Milosevic is dead, whereas Putin, whom I surmise you believe is making all Russian policy, is not.

Using analogy is always bad strategy.

War is not sacrifice; war is exercising control.

War is a process; not an event.

This war started a long time ago and it has some time still to run.

Anonymous said...

The US is provoking Russia to attack now so that the border countries will panic and ask for NATO 'protection' all the way to the Russian border. Russia will instead resist covertly, politically and economically for the next 6-9 months while it locks in multiple political, military and economic partnerships; showing the US to be the aggressor all must be protected from. The end game for Russia is a partnership from China through Russia to Germany that marginalizes NATO and the US. Motivation will be that Europe will find the business value of the combined economy far outstripping the cost of subjugating their foreign policy to NATO and enforcing US sanctions. Stay tuned for more non-dollar currency swaps and the economic integration with Iran and Turkey...

Leandro Lapa said...

Please, Saker. Please, Putin, please!!!!!

Anonymous said...

" now that usa has sent stealth bomber to England the easiest and most desirable thing for Russia to do, if ever big war starts, nuke English nation and destroy the evil plotter and main enemy of Russia.

Anonymous said...

Do not need to lie to yourself, the U.S. ORGANIZED the war in Ukraine in terms of public debt 17 trillion dollars. First. United States needs a military base in the Crimea to exit to the Black Sea and a NATO base against Russia. U.S. tender site posted a message in September for construction the base in Crimea, six months before the revolution. That is, they had ALREADY known that there would there. Second. Deposits of methane gas in the southeast, in Slavyansk, where the war now. By the way Biden Jr. is a founder of the Ukrainian gas company. And many other reasons. United States are in need of money.

Anonymous said...

At least the 80th time the United States has organized a coup or a failed coup in a foreign country since 1953. Some of them: Iran (1953); Guatemala(1954); Thailand (1957); Laos (1958-60); the Congo (1960); Turkey (1960, 1971 & 1980); Ecuador (1961 & 1963); South Vietnam (1963); Brazil (1964); the Dominican Republic (1963); Argentina (1963); Honduras (1963 & 2009); Iraq (1963 & 2003); Bolivia (1964, 1971 & 1980); Indonesia (1965); Ghana (1966); Greece (1967); Panama (1968 & 1989); Cambodia (1970); Chile (1973); Bangladesh (1975); Pakistan (1977); Grenada (1983); Mauritania (1984); Guinea (1984); Burkina Faso (1987); Paraguay (1989); Haiti (1991 & 2004); Yugoslavia (1991); Russia (1993); Uganda (1996); Libya (2011), Ukraine (2014).

Anonymous said...

In general, what the Americans are doing on another continent, in the Ukraine? Why they impose to us? "US Refuses To Take Back 13 Dead CIA Spies Killed In Ukraine" http://www.eutimes.net/.../us-refuses-to-take-back-13.../

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker
Its fine that you disagree, I don’t think that he was perfect either, far from it, sell out is a strong word but whatever ... Putin has done amazing things for Russia, absolutely brilliant economic recovery. But don’t you think its weird that someone who has nukes, oil, gas, no debt and 150 million people is not openly supporting his own people and someone who had none of that at least tried. When did you see Milosevic running around, having chit chat with his enemies while we were being killed?! And it really makes no sense to talk about “controlling Europe” when you’re not even controlling your own backyard.
And all we can see and hear on RT ( besides Russians trying to impersonate Americans, which is pathetic and generally all those efforts from Russian politicians and tycoons to s**k up to west for the last 14 years have been pathetic and they make me sick) is business as usual, we will not feel sanctions bla bla bla. Well business is over, nobody wants them on west, they should wake the hell up cuz they’re at war.
And It doesn’t matter who supports Serbs and who doesn’t, Serbs are fine they are getting ready to go the Greece on their vacations, no need for support at all. But these people are suffering and someone should stop all this, those dead young people in Odessa, these hundreds of dead in Donbass it’s just too much, directly or indirectly they must support those people cuz if they lose next is Crimea and then Russia is in real danger. I know its hard for some to think that they might lose their yahts, but hey we all been there :P
Pozdrav,
Mia

Nora said...

Anonymous 06:17,

A while back I came up with 112 countries -- no dates, in alphabetical order and including other stuff besides "just" coups. Seeing the dates, however, REALLY hits home. sigh. Here is my list:

Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Azerbaijan, Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia, Canada, Central African Republic, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Czech Republic, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethopia, France, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, N. Korea, S. Korea, Kuwait, Kyrgystan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Samoa, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Seychelles, Singapore, Slovakia, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Trinidad-Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Yugoslavia, Zaire

Mohamed said...

Nora said...

"A while back I came up with 112 countries -- no dates, in alphabetical order and including other stuff besides "just" coups. Seeing the dates, however, REALLY hits home. sigh. Here is my list:"

Dearest Sister,

You always forget Palestine!

This one country makes up for the 112 countries in your list.

Palestine is still in war and occupied.

Don't make my heart bleed,

Mohamed.

Mohamed said...

Nora said...

"A while back I came up with 112 countries -- no dates, in alphabetical order and including other stuff besides "just" coups. Seeing the dates, however, REALLY hits home. sigh. Here is my list:"

Dearest Nora,

I wonder why do you have Israel in the List and not Palestine?


Best regards,

Mohamed.

Anonymous said...

All well thought out and said, Saker. I only suggest that Putin this time means a different kind of "move in" and this is a stealth kind that the tiger does. We have seen Putin in pictures with tigers. He is a protector of Siberian tiger. I find him similar to the tiger and think his admiration of the cat beast is not accidental.

I too still hope Putin will make the move. I see that he has made small, to the naked eye invisible moves already. They should intensify: as fighters for sophisticated arms are trained in NR, weapons will arrive; as volunteers amass, so will weapons and supplies.

This war must be won by Russians of Ukraine. This is Putin's strategy, so that Russia continues to develop economically and in other way.

However, he may be MADE by the aggressors to abandon this strategy. He does not want it but may have to move in with the forces of RF, the move that supporters of Rus' want to see and fear that it will not happen.

Anonymous said...

So far Putin has acted calmly to the killing of Russians in Novorussia . But acting sensibly and calmly doesn't conduct to sensible behavior by the corrupt EU .
So a drastic change of pace from Russia is needed .

Those people in charge of the EU are totally owned and brainwashed and cannot see reason . There is a huge gap in mentality between the European population and the idiots in charge . There are a lot of firms in the North East of Italy that depend on trade with Russia and they are not happy with the prospect of interrupting trade links .

Anti NWO