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Sunday, June 8, 2014

My rant tonight - okay, I will try to clarify further

Okay, predictably some has misunderstood my rant as a change in heart.  Others wonder what has changed over the past 24 hours.  So let me clarify:

1) No change of heart?  No - Putin did the right thing by waiting as long as was possible.  I just don't believe that waiting is possible any more.  Why not?

2) What has changed?  Not just words, but actions by Poroshenko.  I, along with many other observers in Russia, had hopes that Poroshenko would use his "clean hands status" to come up with at least a temporary cease-fire followed by negotiations.  Heck - even a 48 hour break to "celebrate" his "election" would have been helpful.  All that happened was a dramatic increase in violence.  Also, Merkel did specifically ask for a meeting with Putin and I had some hopes that the bitch has something useful to say to him.  But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies".

Finally, Poroshenko did more than just spew some garden variety Ukie nonsense.  He specifically committed himself to one language, no federation, no negotiations (at least not with those folks who matter) and he topped it all with a completely surreal statement about the Crimea being forever Ukie.  Ok, these are not just words, the man cornered himself into a crazy, maximalist position.  Some ask what I was expecting and say add that Poroshenko had no other options. Nonsense!  He could have said something along these lines:

The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled (= stop the shelling).  I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue).  The Ukraine must forever become a land of peace and peaceful trade (= neutrality).  There is no personal sacrifice I shall not consent to achieve these lofty goals (= negotiate with the Novorossians).  Etc. etc. etc.

Guys, this is not that hard.  Not to mention that NOW would have been the correct time to get rid of the Nazis while the "eyes of the world" were upon the "legitimate President of the Ukraine".

Poroshenko totally blew it.  Totally. 

And not because he is dumb.  All those who know him agree on two things: he is a total prostitute and he is very smart.  In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel.

So that is what changed: 

a) a total collapse and surrender by the EU 1%ers
b) a total sellout of Poroshenko to Uncle Shmuel

And this is why I see no point in waiting any longer.  That, and the fact that if time is on Russia's side (which it is - Banderastan is not viable), time is not on the side of the people of Novorossia who need help now.

So no, no change of heart.  Change in objective circumstances.  Remember dialectics 101: a quantitative change does eventually result in a qualitative change.  I think that we have reached this point now.

As for my fear, it is primarily triggered by what I perceive as a "wishy-washy" tone out of Moscow.  If that tone is designed to allow for a last ditch effort (I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week) or for a cover for an intervention - fine.  But something needs to be done in the next 24-48 hours and my Bosnian experience makes it very hard for me to live through these next couple of days.

Last, and frankly: I want the Polite Armed Men in Green to make minced meat of the Ukie Nazis involved in this disgusting war on civilians.  These SOBs don't deserve to live, imnsho.

I hope that I have explained myself to the satisfaction of at least most of you.

Kind regards,

The Saker

168 comments:

Anonymous said...

"But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies".
- The Saker

When I read this line I could only think of the news article that came out 2 1/2 months ago in the Financial Times saying Merkel was reduced to tears, not wanting Germany to be the bad guy and squeeze these imploding southern EU economies and how close in retrospect the EUSSR came to dissolution and hard Grexit (which of course would also result in the immediate nukyulur destruction of Deutsche Bank's balance sheets, along with that of lots of other Too Big to Jail Euro and possibly even US banks due to all the derivatives garbage they hold based on Greek Credit Default Swaps etc).

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/05/12/ft-unfolds-story-behind-eurozone-crisis-merkel-in-tears/

So poor Angela cracked under the pressure, did what the Fed wanted, because she had little other choice other than firing up the printing presses or distributing the (long rumored) caches of Deutsche Marks hidden in vaults across Germany after the declaration of a 72 hour bank holiday!

So in considering why the Eurocrats bow and scrape even to the State Department proconsuls like Nuland who say 'f them' to the whole world, do think about the banks. This all goes back to the banksters and the Fed's massive dollar-euro swap with the ECB in 2010 when the euro was on the brink. Can the Fed repeat that scenario now? I think it will be much, much more difficult to pull off this time.

And the reason I posted the link to the video about Operation Bagration is to consider the role of deception and maskirovka in that most successful Soviet offensive of the war. I believe we are seeing something similar now where Putin is running the risk of looking weak to the Fedorovs and Dugins while plotting a strike that principally is going to target the weak link between the U.S. and Germany, while stepping up enormously the Ivan Chih Minh Trail to the NAF. Perhaps Gazprom will respond to the McInsane Bulgaria provocation by demanding payment for gas henceforth in rubles or euros and no dollars whatsoever will be accepted. Russia IMO should also retaliate against the massive gold price smashdown that has hurt its producers by immediately filing litigation in London against the big four banks behind the 'London fix' alleging they have caused material damage to Russia's gold miners. Finally, Putin himself should fly to NYC to inaugurate Russia's chairmanship of the UNSC on June 16 and give a speech in which he condemns in front of the whole world the humanitarian crisis the US-backed Kiev Nazis have created and tells the whole world he has personally met with refugees from Novorossiya. Let those bitches Rice, Nuland and Psaki all squirm in their seats listening to Putin calmly catalogue the atrocities Kiev forces have committed and warn Ukraine that the individual officers who ordered these war crimes including targeting of civilian infrastructure will be held accountable.

Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options. In the meantime over the next week and a half, Putin must give the NAF heavy weaponry and radar guided SAMs to bloody the Nazi Guard and Ukrainian Air Force with first.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

"But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies".
- The Saker

When I read this line I could only think of the news article that came out 2 1/2 months ago in the Financial Times saying Merkel was reduced to tears, not wanting Germany to be the bad guy and squeeze these imploding southern EU economies and how close in retrospect the EUSSR came to dissolution and hard Grexit (which of course would also result in the immediate nukyulur destruction of Deutsche Bank's balance sheets, along with that of lots of other Too Big to Jail Euro and possibly even US banks due to all the derivatives garbage they hold based on Greek Credit Default Swaps etc).

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/05/12/ft-unfolds-story-behind-eurozone-crisis-merkel-in-tears/

So poor Angela cracked under the pressure, did what the Fed wanted, because she had little other choice other than firing up the printing presses or distributing the (long rumored) caches of Deutsche Marks hidden in vaults across Germany after the declaration of a 72 hour bank holiday!

So in considering why the Eurocrats bow and scrape even to the State Department proconsuls like Nuland who say 'f them' to the whole world, do think about the banks. This all goes back to the banksters and the Fed's massive dollar-euro swap with the ECB in 2010 when the euro was on the brink. Can the Fed repeat that scenario now? I think it will be much, much more difficult to pull off this time.

And the reason I posted the link to the video about Operation Bagration is to consider the role of deception and maskirovka in that most successful Soviet offensive of the war. I believe we are seeing something similar now where Putin is running the risk of looking weak to the Fedorovs and Dugins while plotting a strike that principally is going to target the weak link between the U.S. and Germany, while stepping up enormously the Ivan Chih Minh Trail to the NAF. Perhaps Gazprom will respond to the McInsane Bulgaria provocation by demanding payment for gas henceforth in rubles or euros and no dollars whatsoever will be accepted. Russia IMO should also retaliate against the massive gold price smashdown that has hurt its producers by immediately filing litigation in London against the big four banks behind the 'London fix' alleging they have caused material damage to Russia's gold miners. Finally, Putin himself should fly to NYC to inaugurate Russia's chairmanship of the UNSC on June 16 and give a speech in which he condemns in front of the whole world the humanitarian crisis the US-backed Kiev Nazis have created and tells the whole world he has personally met with refugees from Novorossiya. Let those bitches Rice, Nuland and Psaki all squirm in their seats listening to Putin calmly catalogue the atrocities Kiev forces have committed and warn Ukraine that the individual officers who ordered these war crimes including targeting of civilian infrastructure will be held accountable.

Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options. In the meantime over the next week and a half, Putin must give the NAF heavy weaponry and radar guided SAMs to bloody the Nazi Guard and Ukrainian Air Force with first.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

According to Diana Johnstone who did an excellent analysis of the Balkan conflict:

"Putin is widely credited as being the best chess player, who won the first round of the Ukrainian crisis. He has no doubt done the best he could, faced with the crisis foisted on him. But the U.S. has whole ranks of pawns which Putin does not have. And this is not only a chess game, but chess combined with poker combined with Russian roulette. The United States is ready to take risks that the more prudent Russian leaders prefer to avoid… as long as possible."

DonbassBrussels said...

Washington’s Iron Curtain — Diana Johnstone.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/06/08/washingtons-iron-curtain-diana-johnstone/

Anonymous said...

I wonder if Putin was waiting for the inauguration and to see what Poroshenko would do. Putin now has his answer - not to mention that Poroshenko is apparently a big fat liar since it was reported that he told Putin, at Normandy, that he was going to stop the violence. You may recall that a while ago Putin made a statement like (paraphrase), "Just let them try to kill women and children...". Well, they have.

So,to recap:

UA now has a president that Putin said he would recognize as legit.

That president is continuing the slaughter.

He lied to Putin at Normandy.

While I am sympathetic to all of the very good reasons that Russia would stay out of this mess, Putin's statement of "let them try to..." now is especially significant. He indicated he wouldn't stand by for what's happening. It's matter of does he mean what he says. He strikes me as a man who DOES mean what he says. At the very least (and probably most prudent), Russia needs to start sending in LOTS of military and humanitarian supplies.

Anonymous said...

My apologies to Saker et al for the double post...not sure how that happened in the 'prove your not a robot' text entry.

The bottom line is the moral high ground is not something to toss away lightly. Even if our lying MSM insist it's all Putin's fault and the Ukrainians can't be faulted for turning Slovyiansk into Grozny 2.0 and the Russians are big hypocrites. People with brains are still going to wonder how if the targets are 'terrorists' shelling schools, hospitals, churches, and markets is going to win hearts and minds back for Ukraine.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

Long-time reader, first time poster here.
I would like to bring to your attention the fact that the whole ukrainian army/us mercs/cia/polish adventurists have been stalemated for many weeks at Slaviansk, and stalemated by whom?
Irregular light infantry, armed with sMG`s and rifles, with a sprinkling of manpads and assorted short-range antitank weapons.
After the utterly disastrous offensive phase between 2-12 May, this coalition of the unwilling led by the unable have achieved exactly zero and is reduced to timidly shoot their artillery, when waiting for succor from their paymasters.

Long may they wait.

Anonymous said...

I wasn't surprised by the piglet's and the Euros' total subservience to the neocons.

Dugin turned out to have been wrong about his "10 days" prediction. He has pretty much acknowledged it now. I knew it was unlikely when he predicted it, but still there was a little hope.

I looked at some Western news outlets today - almost nothing about the horror in Slaviansk. It's scary to imagine how much news of this sort about other countries I miss because I don't know those countries' languages and cultures. I don't have to rely on Western reporting about the Ukraine because I know Russian. But if this was happening in Thailand or wherever, and Western media decided that it was against its interests to report on it, I'd know nothing.

I think it was at the end of April that Putin sent troops to the Ukrainian border and then changed his mind at the last minute. So at that point an intervention looked feasible to him. But after Odessa, the tanks, the airstrikes, etc. it didn't. Probably still doesn't. What changed? I'd like to see some theories. If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?

Anonymous said...

Porky Poroshenko was never going to choose to make things better or negotiate a reasonable resolution to this. He has been a US asset for years. He is a puppet.

All decisions for him are made in Washington, including the war now being waged against civilians in South/East Ukraine.

Yvonne said...

I agree with those of you who say that time is against Poroshenko: he has been declaring left and right about his eagerness to sign an agreement with the EU (he even said that he's holding the pen in his hand), but look at Laurent Fabius' answer:

http://russian.rt.com/article/35650
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_08/Most-European-countries-not-ready-for-Ukraine-to-join-EU-Frances-FM-2710

Strategies, tactics and geopolitical maneuvres aside, I just *hope* that something happens to help these poor people in Novorossiya. I feel so helpless, sad and angry watching people and children suffer and getting slaughtered while Ukie Nazis take pictures smiling, holding a severed arm. And Obama, Kerry, McCain and Biden comfortably sleeping in a warm bed and congratulating each other on the success of their "cunning" plans. Sorry, I'm in a deep "gloom and doom" mood.

Anonymous said...

Why are Ukranian pilots or mechanic tech side enjoying the war
why not make the choice to show up for murder.....maybe just that
or kidnap

The US NATO extortion racket shows up with its mercs and its
party in Turkey and then murder in Syria
Syrian agents should have been bumping these off and hotel
owners to send a message

Ukrainians need to step up now....why should Russia send agents and
special forces?

Maybe its time to go after the aggressors....not hide and wait

Anonymous said...

"I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week"

I understood that to mean that Poroshenko hopes to achieve total victory in a few days.

Anonymous said...

I think something invisible to all of us is taking place. We base our analysis of the current situation only on the information that is available to us, which is, let's face it, very limited. Once we get this information, we try to make sense of it and fill in the gaps with intuition and some form of historic-comparative knowledge. Looking at the past history of Russia, it is clear how often and how much this country was willing to scarify, in order to win the final battle for its ultimate survival. Napoleon was in Moscow, Germans got really close, Communists were trying to destroy it from within for almost 100 years, etc, etc... and yet Russia is still there, still huge and still rising regardless of how historians interpret those events.

I guess over the centuries, the mixture of Vikings, Mongols and some local, native tribes created a blend of characters that cannot be easily classified and therefore reliably predicted, hence the w. Churchill's famous utterance " Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma". There is this "5th element" (perhaps, the spirit of Rus is a more appropriate term), that cannot be analyzed and comprehended logically. It is full of contradictions and logic defying powers.

Since the beginning of this conflict, I almost entirely lost my ability to sleep and desperately want some kind of conclusion, some kind of reassuring end to this whole madness. We all know what is at stake here.

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Saker,

I am fairly new to your blog, 3 months. Something you wrote ….. in Russia, they saddle up the horse slow, but ride fast.

Mr. Putin needs to give Mr. Poroshenko a few days to end the atrocities. the UK’s influential newspaper Telegraph online published today June 08 2014 this not totally one –sided piece –on the ground reporting:

Ukraine must correct its chaotic response

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10885410/Ukraine-must-correct-its-chaotic-response.html

“The yellow and blue stripes of Ukraine’s national flag are designed to symbolise a happy union between golden fields and the summer sky. At the moment, the sweeping plains of Donetsk do indeed resemble this vision of idyllic harmony – until, that is, you run into a checkpoint manned by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian soldiers.

You might expect the insurgents to be tense and fearful, but I’ve usually found the army to be more on edge. At one roadblock, a suspicious soldier with blazing blue eyes inquired where we had come from and where we were going. Then he abruptly asked my driver: “And what is your opinion of separatism?” When a teenage member of a national army demands to know the political views of the people he is paid to protect, then you know things are going wrong. And the signs are that the “anti-terrorist” operation mounted by Ukraine’s security forces to recapture the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk is coming off the rails.

That has important consequences for the West’s response to Ukraine’s crisis. Put bluntly, we cannot simply place the burden on Vladimir Putin to end the killing. Petro Poroshenko, the newly elected president of Ukraine who took office on Saturday, must also correct his government’s mistakes.
[.}The problem is not Ukraine’s willingness to fight the rebellion, but the clumsy and heavy-handed way in which it is being done. The events of the past week provide a terrible illustration. Last Monday, eight people were killed by an explosion inside an occupied government building in Luhansk, which now serves as a rebel headquarters. Video footage showed unarmed men and women in civilian clothes, apparently passers-by, lying dead or writhing in bloodstained agony.”[.]
One day later, a hospital was badly damaged when the army recaptured the town of Krasny Liman. The walls of the building were pockmarked with bullet holes and almost every window was blown out. At least one person is known to have been killed inside.

Meanwhile, hardly a day goes by without mortar bombs exploding on or near civilian homes in rebel-held areas.
If those are incidents of heavy-handedness, other military operations have simply been incompetent.[.]

more-- please read the entire post

(emphasis mine)
Anon Mongoose

Anonymous said...

Steady yourself Saker. Check out "Heralding the Rise of Russia" (http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.co.uk/), which provides an Armenian-Russian analysis comparable with your own.

Anonymous said...

Saker --

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/06/inauguration-of-chocolate-king-and-war.html?showComment=1402187340640&m=1

Steve Quayle, a blogger based in Montana (I think he and Dr. Steve Pieczenik the former Tom Clancy co-author who was the real life inspiration for 'Jack Ryan') linked to a post that exercepted your article about Mr. Poroshenko's ultimatum inaugural speech.

Which is ironic considering Mr. Quayle has often warned of Russian troop sightings inside CONUS all over the place. But Quayle understands too the NWO is setting the USA up to be the bad guy and for a lot of nations -- including Germany he says -- to cheer America's downfall because the current elite is going to make the US as he says either a punchline or 'a hissing sound' to the world. Quayle views this as God Almighty's Judgement and I can't say I can disagree with him on that even if he is no Orthodox Christian but an Evangelical independent on his own somewhere trying in vain to run his own church with communion over the air waves.

American Kulak

james said...

Faith is hanging onto what you know to be true when feelings are telling you the opposite. Especially when those feelings are fearful

Anonymous said...

The intelligence was blind to so much information.

It's part of a song lyric of all "Initial Capital".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuyEYNGCBkw

:-)

(by Proftel)

вот так said...

I'd like to see the PAMG slaughter the nazis and their leadership, as well.

But I think such revenge will be much sweeter if carried out by Novorussians.

The nazis are not any more effective now than they were, in fact, they are in a serious decline. All they really seem capable of is shelling civilian areas with artillery kept out of reach of Novorussian forces. When the nazis meet Novorussians, they tend to lose, unless the odds greatly favour them. Beyond the zionazis having their "legit" regime in the Ukraine now with Poroshenko for their propaganda purposes, I don't see how he changes things on the ground. With or without him, they, the zionazis, would still be increasing their terrorist pressure on Novorossya, because that is what the "time to go all out and get Russia" plan calls for.

If Russia "gives" Novorussia the means to get at the artillery shelling them, increase the ability of Novorussia to tackle air and armour attacks, provides detailed intelligence and helps with manpower, Novorussia will have no problem eradicating the nazis. All of this being done clandestinely as much as possible. Probably a lot of it, the Russians are already doing. Give the Novorussians what they need, and they will clean house in the Ukraine.

Personally, I am not surprised by Poroshenko, it was quite obvious the cocksuck was an Israeli-American bitchboi from the beginning since they chose him to be their frontman in the Ukraine. It's quite obvious he hates Putin, probably all the Russian government, from the way he looks at Putin in photos. The Russian government blocked sales of his "chocolate" in Russia last year. To a fascist oligarch/mafia bum bandit like Poroshenko, that is unforgivable.

Likewise, I do not think there ever was any real resistance to the "get Russia" plan among the Euro section of the NWO. Their bums are used by the zionazis as much as those of their American and Anglo associates. Forget about the "Europe vs America" scenario, it's a distractions and both answer to the same exact masters. There are a few Euro oligarchs probably still resisting, but these don't have much say about it. Probably the only thing in Europe that could stop the zionazis is Europeans rebelling against them in the streets and essentially doing an Octobre Revolution or French Revolution with no quarter given to the oligarchs and their minions. Not very likely in the near future...

As for Israeli, American or Anglo populations...forget about it. They are beyond even the slim hope one might have for Europeans to cast aside their self reinforcing house slave mentality. Write them off entirely as part of any conscious solution. But their failings could still be used to neutralise them. And should be.

Daniel Rich said...

@ American Kulak,

Q: Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options.

I fully agree with what Putin/Russia should do. How come most people who participate in this forum have been wide awake for quite some time now. However, being awake doesn't result in changing the world. What we, mere mortal peasants, can do, is to inform others and hope they draw their own conclusions and act accordingly.

Based upon mankind's history, I don't plan on holding my breath.

Cu Chulainn said...

Is it my imagination or was Rowan Berkeley banned for being a little too prescient about what is more and more obviously Putin's betrayal?

Daniel Rich said...

@ American Kulak,

The ‘moral high ground’ can only be ‘above’ a person, when viewed from a position that is much lower.

Andrew said...

The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled

But that would be a lie, first and foremost because the man is not a Ukrainian. How could you expect him to say that?

Would you expect Rinat Akhmetov to say that when he is a Tatar? How jarring would it be for a descendant of the slavers of Ukraine to profess his love and devotion to the sacredness of Ukrainian life?

Anonymous said...

Essa música deveria ser o hino nas trincheiras de Novorrussia:

Metal Contra As Nuvens
Legião Urbana
I

Não sou escravo de ninguém
Ninguém, senhor do meu domínio
Sei o que devo defender
E, por valor eu tenho
E temo o que agora se desfaz

Viajamos sete léguas
Por entre abismos e florestas
Por Deus nunca me vi tão só
É a própria fé o que destrói
Estes são dias desleais

Eu sou metal, raio, relâmpago e trovão
Eu sou metal, eu sou o ouro em seu brasão
Eu sou metal, me sabe o sopro do dragão

Reconheço meu pesar
Quando tudo é traição
O que venho encontrar
É a virtude em outras mãos

Minha terra é a terra que é minha
E sempre será
Minha terra tem a lua, tem estrelas
E sempre terá

II

Quase acreditei na sua promessa
E o que vejo é fome e destruição
Perdi a minha sela e a minha espada
Perdi o meu castelo e minha princesa

Quase acreditei, quase acreditei

E, por honra, se existir verdade
Existem os tolos e existe o ladrão
E há quem se alimente do que é roubo
Mas vou guardar o meu tesouro
Caso você esteja mentindo

Olha o sopro do dragão

III

É a verdade o que assombra
O descaso que condena
A estupidez, o que destrói
Eu vejo tudo que se foi
E o que não existe mais

Tenho os sentidos já dormentes
O corpo quer, a alma entende
Esta é a terra-de-ninguém
Sei que devo resistir
Eu quero a espada em minhas mãos

Eu sou metal, raio, relâmpago e trovão
Eu sou metal, eu sou o ouro em seu brasão
Eu sou metal, me sabe o sopro do dragão

Não me entrego sem lutar
Tenho, ainda, coração
Não aprendi a me render
Que caia o inimigo então

IV

- Tudo passa, tudo passará

E nossa estória não estará pelo avesso
Assim, sem final feliz
Teremos coisas bonitas pra contar

E até lá, vamos viver
Temos muito ainda por fazer
Não olhe pra trás
Apenas começamos
O mundo começa agora
Apenas começamos


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1HPCYq5De8

(By Proftel)

Anonymous said...

Saker, when Russia acta, She must act with full force which means either full military fprce or full clendestine help with no haf effort. Quick victory is the aim.

Anonymous said...

Saker, when Russia acta, She must act with full force which means either full military force or full clendestine help with no half effort. Quick victory is the aim.

Josh Vanhee said...

Saker,

I learned that post-Soviet analysis showed the people most adverse to Soviet policy were still following the same authoritarian thinking patterns. Evangelical pastors were copying behavior from communist party bosses.

Our cultural bias, even if we oppose the opinions and policies vehemently, draws us into similar behavioral patterns and patterns of expected action.

Draw back and think historically.

What are the key words by Putin?

Russian interests.
Russian lives.

Minimizing suffering for the Novorossiya people is not a key interest. There is as yet not enough identification of the Novorossiya region with the fighting elements. It is growing, but it needs to grow more for it to warrant putting other major Russian interests at risk.

The Novorossiya suffering is only at its beginning.

This week we will see Poroshenko's control or lack of it, of the military and the national guard.
Will he deal with Parubii or sign his exit? If so, how will he control the nazi beast/national guard Paruibii created?

This, together with the Donbass Army advances, indicate that Putin could choose for clandestine ops if Poroshenko fails to de-escalate as promised.

We all know that even if there is Russian intervention, it would need to be quick and surgical. How quick, and how surgical?

I don't think it will be troops. If anything, it will be small squads going in and out. And dpending on how long they expect this conflict to last, they may choose to fund and train the Donbass army instead.






Paul said...

“I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue).”

As an identitarian myself, I have to disagree with this choice of words. Instead of saying Ukraine is 'diverse', I would try to fit 'Slavic' or 'Eastern Slavic' into the speech. Something like, “I shall never rest until each and every Slav will feel that he/she is a precious member of an Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been European and whose people are an integral part of the Eastern Slavic populations of the continent.”

Saker also said:

“In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel.”

Funny that you mentioned it. Speech written by you-know-who, right? Take a brief look at this page to understand my opposition to the wording above:

http://www.heretical.com/British/traitors.html

Undoubtedly, it still goes today.

Alex said...

You have not posted my comment under the previous post and you have not answered my concerns. You yourself warned that the US is deliberately provoking war against Russia. This means that they are ready to join the dance. It is now up to Putin to avoid another WW, this time nuclear. The calculation of human and environmental cost of such a war is easy to imagine and much greater than the damage done by atrocities in SE Ukraine. I think that Putin's position right now is to chose the lesser evil. Plus, Russia may not be able to win such confrontation. Putin knows it, or else he would not have backed up. Obama knows it, or else he would not push for a war on Russia. Your position is supporting the US efforts to provoke Russia and cause a major military confrontation between Russia and the West. Why don't you want your readers to see this comment?

Anonymous said...

Regarding feeling frustrated and angry and worried.

President Putin is talented at playing exactly this sort of 'game', making the smart moves (sometimes unrevealed ones), and in the final move, winning. When I try to guess things like, what Russia might do here, or might do there, it doesn't mean much. The reality is that the chess novice cannot anticipate the moves of the master.

This is his game, this is what he is good at. It makes sense to let him play it, and for us to decide that we're not getting worked up and disturbed.

His style seems to be that of letting his opponent dig his own grave, and then watching him fall into it. Small push, maybe? And the whole time, the opponent thinks he's digging a hole for some other purpose. We could be watching the creation of a very big hole. Let's see how this goes.

solerso said...

Is this new ? Is this credible ? Normally I regard Itar Tass as a good source..Proshenko has shifted gears again and is now calling the slaughter in the East "unacceptable" and saying "it must end this week"...from Itar Tass dated today

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/735342

Robert Nelson said...

Why can't Putin issue ultimatums of his own? I realize you can't deport 5million Ukrainian guest workers overnight to Banderastan but why not institute tariffs. Cease cooperation and cultural, business exchange between the 2 countries

And turn off their gas! Not for non payment but as an incentive to a cease fire

Russian citizens should boycott, divest and sanction Ukrainian goods

Poroshenko shouldn't make a single chocolate sale in Russia after his inaugural/declaration of war twofer speech

guest77 said...

Dear Saker, you're a bit nuts of late. You just two days ago were calling the Russian Communists agents of the US because they are pushing for Russian intervention, now you are doing something quite similar.

I think you're concept of the Communists leaves much to be desired. They are loyal opposition, and quite supportive of Putin. Plus they want to see the best for those in the east - who seem driven in large part by the left.

Anonymous said...

very well explained...and i think Putin feels basically the same....the guy is no fool....and he is nothing you would want to fool with or push into a corner...but that is what the west has done....and so any action by Putin will be a much deserved reaction....a rightful and justified shock and awe the likes of which the west can only stand with open mouth...watching...drooling like the evil idiots they are.

Anonymous said...

"Probably the only thing in Europe that could stop the zionazis is Europeans rebelling against them in the streets and essentially doing an Octobre Revolution or French Revolution with no quarter given to the oligarchs and their minions. Not very likely in the near future..."

An economic collapse in Europe could lead to revolutions. Europe is already in an economic crisis. All that's needed is a push. If Putin sends troops into eastern Ukraine and the neocons retaliate with total, all-encompassing sanctions, Europe will lose its gas. Yes, Russia's economy will be hurt too, but Russia will be riding on a patriotic high even bigger than the one after the recovery of the Crimea. Europe will only get an economic hit. Who knows, it could be enough for a revolution or too.

burton50 said...

Dear Saker:

We are all in this situation, hoping that Russia will put a stop to the bloodletting, even by setting in motion a massive “mowing of the grass” in terms of Ukrainian armor, artillery and airfields. The heroism of the people on the ground in Novorossiia like Igor Strelkov is truly staggering, but as you yourself have noted, they are too few.

I also remember all your warnings on this score over the past months, and they are still valid in spades. In the fifteen years that separate us from the end of the Eltsin era, Vladimir Vladimirovich and his supporters and collaborators have produced a vast improvement in Russia’s domestic and international situation. However, the arrangements that lie at the foundations of this project are still fragile – they have involved compromises with the structures of power that took root in the previous era – and the progress is still in many ways embryonic. As a Russian patriot, Putin and his team must have furthering this process of rebuilding as their sole focus. This is not to be endangered by the sorts of immediate and dangerous confrontation – I repeat immediate – to which Russia is obviously being provoked.

Yet history – in spite of Fukuyama – does not cease to unfold.

And in the final analysis, the Ukies simply won’t be able to change their geography and move to Florida. Further, the sort of hatreds and desire for revenge that are being born and set in iron at this moment are going to make a unitary state in the Ukraine impossible to build. It will remain, perhaps, a state, but it will now never be a nation. After the events in Odessa of May 2 and subsequent events, there can now never be a “Ukrainian people”, if there ever was one. The situation will not improve when “General Winter” and “Colonel Hyperinflation” arrive.

The Russian State is many centuries old, and its architects, beginning with Ivan III Vasilievich, always knew how to play the “long game,” coldly and without emotion. They had a powerful conception of the “state interest” – its role in the life of the nation – which they held in trust, ultimately, for the Russian people. That State collapsed and almost disappeared twice in the twentieth century, and the consequences, each time, have been disastrous for Russia, for Russians and all those who wish them well.

It is this monumental effort for Russia’s rehabilitation in the present circumstances that is in the balance, I think. Given his powerful sense of history, Vladimir Vladimirovich will weigh all his options against the very real dangers to this project. It is hardly weakness: it’s a prudence that is obligatory for a leader of men.

Anonymous said...

Hi Josh V,

I will take the liberty of a response. What is Russia's interest? Yes, a humanitarian interest in a kindred people but there is much more at stake I think. The US has basically said, with its actions and through it diplomats, that Russia can have no interest in what happens in neighboring states - if NATO wants to put missiles in Ukraine then Russia must accept this. If the US engineers a coup in a neighboring state and installs a hostile government that will kick the Russians out of Sevastopol then Russia must accept this. If part of the Ukrainian population rises up against the junta then the US can order its puppets to wipe them out and Russia can do nothing. Russia must give back Crimea to Ukraine and give up their base there. Russia must back down on Syria and allow Assad to be overthrown by the jihadists. Russia must allow the US to dictate the price of natural gas and determine to whom it can be sold - must I go on?

The opponent uses blackmail, extortion, bribery, covert military operations, economic sanctions, arms opponents, threatens any allies who oppose it will, and wields the implied threat of a nuclear strike....

We will see now how this plays out.

the pessimist

guest77 said...

"Napoleon was in Moscow, Germans got really close, Communists were trying to destroy it from within for almost 100 years, etc, etc... and yet Russia is still there"

I'm sorry, but this is utter b.s. It was partly those communists who died by the millions to prevent the Germans from destroying their motherland. It was partly those communists who worked like dogs to build the country during the 1930s and brought it peace and prosperity in the post-war years.

The Russian Revoltion was a epoch making moment. It was those workers who fought in the Red Army to defend Russia from foreign invasion and the Czar's (a German) armies, and it was that same Red Army who threw back Hitler under the banner of the hammer and sickle.

You cannot separate the communists from Russia - and those who try and do so demean the great history of both. The first way they will attack Russia is to attack her history. And you are helping in that, sir.

WizOz said...

@"But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies".

That this is a "family affair" of the Khazars is shown by the jumping on the anti-Putin bandwagon (don't forget that he was declared the Haman of the year!) by two other "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies", the overseers of the British-Israelite colonies of Canada and Australia:

"TONY Abbott has sharpened his criticism of Vladimir Putin to support a blistering attack on the Russian president, amid growing concern over Moscow’s incursions into the Ukraine...
Hours after Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called Mr Putin an “extreme nationalist” and imperialist, Mr Abbott backed the criticism and expressed concerns of his own about the “affront” to international stability from Russia’s actions" (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/tony-abbott-calls-russia-a-bully-as-he-steps-up-criticisms-over-ukraine/story-fn59nm2j-1226948009543#mm-premium).

Wow! Abbott is a "knight of the Round Table" (i.e. a Rhodes Scholar). Not that his presumtive competitors would be any better Malcolm Turnbull is a Round tabler also. Labor leaders boast that they have "Israel in their DNA"!

solerso said...

@ Robert Nelson @ 1:47

We know that Putin has some influence with Poroshenko. I think maybe we're beginning to see it..

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/735342

That Poroshenko would even use this kind of language now suggests he's either not totally under the thumb of the US (These words certainly DID NOT come from the US), and or He's feeling the Heat from Russia, which at the end of the day, he knows he must fear more than the US..this is the fact that nobody remembers..the US WILL NOT deploy its own forces in support of its regime in Ukraine. Some people seem to think the US is ready to dive in with the 82'd Airborne. Not going to happen...and remember the US apparently lost more than one higher level "advisor" along with General Nazi in the, apparent, shootdown incident. Putin has already laid down his own "red line" ..NATO will not deploy in Ukraine. Poroshenko has to work with these facts. He either continues all out with a war he cannot win alone, or he makes real concessions and negotiates. He knows that Russia is willing to offer substantial help to Ukraine if they will return to sanity. This is real money for normalizing the situation..The US/EU axis is offering some what if-maybe funny money and IMF demands for more war and chaos..Poroshenko is not a lunatic whatever else he may be. He also knows that he can only strengthen Ukraine position being being a bit more coy..Maidan is not going to play out a second time.

Anonymous said...

"guest77 said...
Dear Saker, you're a bit nuts of late. You just two days ago were calling the Russian Communists agents of the US because they are pushing for Russian intervention, now you are doing something quite similar."

It ain't all about our host here, to experience swings of emotion is only human, particularly for a guy with teenage children and a full time job. I think we should all lighten up on Saker and as I learned from my own little ranting about the Bundy episode with all the idiocy on both sides of that stand off, on each other. I do not think the Russian Communists are all secretly in the employ of the State Dept. or that NTV or Channel 1 are full of Western 5th Columnists as Fedorov rants, but I do think all the 'Putin is blowing it' comments are bound to be amplified by the real fedtrolls/Globalist/Team Evil Noise Machine. As will be simultaneously the 'Putin is going to start WW3 by rolling into the Donbass' (not really). Pincer movements have been the hallmarks of all warfare including psyops since Cannae what else is new? The Empire wants to attack us from all sides, most of all and most neglected spiritually. Remember Poroshenko is just a puppet of the CIA who run Obama who in turn are also puppets of the Bilderbergers or Council on Foreign Relations or the 300 or 5 families. Above them at the apex of the pyramid are the powers and principalities that report to Satan himself, though I'm sure there is so Satanic possession among the elites too as Hitler was definitely demon possessed to have escaped so many assassination attempts even the SS and Gestapo couldn't possibly have found. Remember the final war is not with flesh and blood and the ultimate Enemy of Mankind has already been defeated by the Son of Man.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

Last comment of the evening for me I promise -- if financial war is being waged on Russia with Bulgaria's betrayal as yet the latest example, it's time to wage financial war back. And that means busting the naked gold shorts, announcing together with the Chinese a new round of gold buying while demanding PHYSICAL DELIVERY from the Comex. If they can't cough it up by insist on offering cash expose the fraudster bastards and their 3 card gold monti game for what it is. Show that the Western banksters are naked and have been nakedly shorting for a while. The sudden rocketing in price for gold and Russia/China's inability to buy it cheaply will be more than offset by the increase in value of their holdings, which are already combined the largest in the world. The war on the market cap of all gold miners in the BRICS would also end in humiliating defeat for the banksters who were hoping to get all those assets from Magadan to Capetown on the cheap.

American Kulak

Man From Atlan said...

Well, Saker, at this point we can do what you ask, pray for the safety of the people of Novorussiya, and, that Putin doesn't betray them. Women and children are being killed.

Lucky mcgriff said...

Dear Saker,
The forces of darkness are so right out in the open that if one is not frightened, then they are dead.
The atrocities being committed on these beautiful people is heartbreaking to say the least.
To hear of these lunatic leaders of the us laughing at this inauguration while the killing of innocent lives had been kicked up a notch, makes me sick beyond words could express. God bless the innocent of the Ukraine and God damn these evil monsters!
I honestly believe that Mr.Putin will handle this situation as he dealt with the situation on Friday with utter humility (He totally represented!!). That was the most noble behavior I've witnessed in a long time. There was honor in that. Another character I do not ever witness in these evil leaders that represent us.
I also pray that Mr.Putin has mankinds very existence at heart (No one else seems to). He needs the WORLDS prayers now more than ever. God bless the world!
ps May the Lord bring peace to your anxiety!!

Anonymous said...

- from Nazi occupied Amerika

Novorossia is the future. But let's not put it all on Russia, or Putin. Each man and woman across the globe is now part of the resistance. Ukraine, the EU and the US are imploding. So the war might take a long time. But this war is worth dying for. For some, it will be worth killing for.

- in pain for the Donbass, with contempt for the fascist pigs, with solidarity for the revolution

Anonymous said...

OK, Saker, maybe "change of heart" is not right words in this situation, and I also understand how you feel, how you hope thing had turned out differently. Don't most of us feel same way?

The bottom line still is no matter what Russia do, the consequence of sanctions are same. In this context act the early the better.

Thanks to Gleb Bazov for translation.
As Igor Ivanovich Strelkov said today (someone else also said a few days ago here)http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s22kua, by waiting, now it is much bigger problem for RF:
"In any event, neither a hundred (100). nor even a thousand (1000) “spetsnaz” troops (even if they are “Alpha-Rambo” times three) will be able to match the forces of the [Ukrainian] regular army. The idiot advisors in Kremlin have let the situation fester to the point where they face an all-or-nothing choice: either they will give up Novorossiya to the enemy for good, or [Russia] will have to fight for it at full strength. There is no third choice anymore – all other possibilities have been successfully “chewed with snot” in the past 1.5 months."



Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,

While the latest developments are indeed very unfortunate, they do provide an opportunity for this blog, namely, to provide clear evidence of Poroshenko's duplicity. The Western MSM isn't covering this much, and so if you and/or the readers of this blog can provide images, video, etc., that alone would be very helpful. As much as I appreciate reading Juan's situation reports, they generally don't come with links to images or videos.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Tired of seeing the USA....Nazi NATO
The misersable house of Saud
and Farrginnn Isreal
get away with it decade after decade

Maybe we all deserve this tree of woe
Maybe we are Cowards....and bitches for bankers

Grieved said...

I don't see any purpose served by Russia's invasion and to the contrary I think it blows the whole game. Putin hasn't betrayed anyone, he's totally engaged in this fight as a judoka.

I think he pulled back from the border for multiple reasons, one of which may well have been to give the US more rope to hang itself, which it has taken with both hands, falling into the trap by increasing the atrocities. Putin will use his opponent's own energy to throw his opponent down. He knows how to fight, and he's in a life and death battle right now for potentially the survival of all life on Earth.

On the other hand, Ukraine can easily become another Vietnam for the US, and I suspect the best outcome would be for the US itself to weary of its involvement, and retire. Everyone says these neocons never give up etc, but we'll see.

Strelkov in that excellent interview translated yesterday has said the Ukes can't destroy the resistance no matter how many civilians they kill. In other words, the resistance will endure until the Ukes are all dead if that's what it takes. He now needs more hardware to take out the artillery and tanks - why hasn't Russia given him this? Almost as if Russia doesn't want the resistance to end the battle too soon, before the ordinary populace has been roused by the atrocities into total unified opposition to the Kiev regime.

Also Russia is tightening up the border - nothing careless or fatalistic about any of its moves, even with brothers on the other side, Russia will control its border, just as it controls this battle.

And I see now that Putin's visit to Normandy was supremely useful, to meet with France and Germany (arguably the heart of the EU) and unite with them to threaten Poro. This speaks volumes.

Russia won't invade. Strelkov will continue to get only what he needs to keep it things at a stalemate. If he gets enough to take the battle to the Ukes, I'll be surprised but I'd bet that's as far as Russia will escalate at this point.

Something has yet to happen at the Kiev end of things, with the US - we don't know what they're going to do next. We'll have to see how this ultimatum of one week to finish the fighting plays out.

Imagine said...

M.P. Yaroslav Nilov proposes an educational photo exhibit of the atrocities of the Ukraine, to raise consciousness. This is all well & good, but it needs to be done on the Internet as well. Can someone suggest this to him, help get it together?

Anonymous said...

My post disappeared. So this may be a duplicated re-write.

While we are wondering whether Mr. Putin is looking weak…. here is a very interesting article in the influential financial newspaper, Financial Times read worldwide by tptb and CEOs.

Masterly Russian operations in Ukraine leave Nato one step behind
West’s security officials give grudging praise to Moscow tactics

“The running theme of Nato’s criticism of Russia is that when it comes to Ukraine, the Kremlin has slipped back into a cold war mentality.

But while Russia’s strategic thinking might recall the ruthless geopolitics of the past century, its tactics for military analysts have been a model of warfare in the 21st, employing everything from small groups of unidentifiable specialist personnel to cyber warfare.

In more than a dozen interviews, planners, security officials and members of the intelligence community have spoken of Moscow with universal, if grudging, praise.

Tactically, they say, Russia has waged a dexterous and comprehensive campaign, and has been one step ahead at every turn. The Kremlin’s operations on the ground have been “masterly”, said one.

“I have been impressed. The eminent deniability of it all – this has been an exactly and beautifully calibrated operation . . . silent but deadly effective,” said Jonathan Eyal, international director of the Royal United Services Institute in London. The west “has been off-guard from day one”.
[.]
(registration required)
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a5829d60-ed48-11e3-8a1e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz346XYeHzI


(Emphasis mine)

Follow the money. Sanctions, Costs for whose account? Repeat: “The west has been off-guard from day one”

The second article at FT: Russia eyes paying for trade in renminbi
Western sanctions fears push companies to Asian currencies

Anon Mongoose

Rob Bardin said...

Mr. Saker,
I applaud your passion and diligence, but I have a question;

Has it occurred to you that Barack H. Obama and Vladimir V. Putin are actually actors in an elaborate, global play?

If true, it would make what otherwise seems non-sensical, make perfect sense.

Both are beholden to bankers, you know. I'm just asking if this thought has crossed your mind.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Rob BardinLHas it occurred to you that Barack H. Obama and Vladimir V. Putin are actually actors in an elaborate, global play?

Honestly? No. Not for one second. I see no evidence for that and the kind of pain Putin has already inflicted on the Empire, not to mention the Empire's hatred for him, tell me that this is absolutely not the case.

Kind regards,

The Saker

Meezer said...

Saker,

With all due respect to you & the others call for immediate Russian intervention, all of you need to take a chill pill :)

In your rant you brought up the Bosnian Serbs. Great. It's a subject in my wheel house.

Couple of questions for all of you:

How many fighter did the VRS have?

Now how many fighters does the NDF have?

When the Bosnian Croats & fascist Bosnian Muslims started shelling, burning, killing, raping, etc., Bosnian Serb villages, towns, etc., the ranks of the VRS & various paramilitaries swelled with a lot of pissed off Bosnian Serbs. They didn't go crying to the Serbs in Serbia proper to come over & do the fighting for them so they can hide behind their baba's skirts.

So WTF is the problem with the overwhelming majority of guys in Novorossia??

Their villages, towns & cities are being shelled & attacked by Nazis, yet they want to sit this one out???

Meezer





james said...

The article cited by Mongoose above and many others that are linked here from time to time that show western media and sites like CounterPunch crediting Russia for playing the war in Ukraine smart, all paint the conflict as being between Kiev and Russia and no mention is ever made of the US.
These articles are all subtle disinformation for the " chattering classes" as you would, or should, expect from these media sites.

james said...

Rob Bardin said Both are beholden to bankers, you know. I'm just asking if this thought has crossed your mind.

One of the first things Putin did when he came to power was to pay off the IMF loans and get rid of their influence for good. When the state owned central bank, Bank of Russia, would not provide the finance he wanted to develop Russia, Putin used a small state owned development bank and extended its powers. How do you think Russia has pulled itself out of the banker/oligarch imposed third world hell in less than 15 years and without debt to western banks?

Putin has now appointed his ex assistant ( can't remember her name right now, unfortunately), a very capable economist, to head the Bank of Russia so it should be "full steam ahead" from now on.

This resurgence of the Russian economy and the reasons for it are both a huge existential threats to the Jewish bankers. Added to this, of curse, is Russia and China's move away from using $US which will cause loss of power and big inflation for the US I.e. Weaken the bankers further.

There is simply no way that Putin, and more importantly Russia, is beholden to any bankers or banks except their own government owned and controlled ones.

Anonymous said...


Dear Saker,

This blog and its comments are extremely valuable.

You made it possible.

Thank you!

I'm not sleeping much these days. Praying more. Trying in my small way to light a candle in some corners.

We are only human.

I mean no offence to anyone's faith or beliefs, but here is mine:

!. God is Love.

2. Everything always changes.

3. What goes around comes around.

- Bic

Kolokol said...

I hate putting faith in leaders, I've seen my "left" friends repeatedly bitch slapped by Obama and my "right" friends turned into blathering caricatures of cognitive dissonance by George W Bush. So, tell me what in Putin's long history of leadership would foreshadow his "folding"? I see nothing.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker
Behind Poroshoko is America and America wants to wipe Russia off the map.

Daniel Rich said...

@ Anon,

Q: If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?

R:In poker terms, that was bluff and it worked, because, until the troops were withdrawn, there were 'skirmishes.'

I think Putin has played has cards extremely well. They kicked him/Russia out of the G8, he still paid his respect to the fallen of WWII. He said he would recognize an elected entity in the Ukraine and he did. He does everything in such a way that nobody can point a finger at him and accuse him of any wrongdoing.I guess he will now give the head honcho next door plenty time to show the world [now that we have access to other news outlets, it doesn't matter whether MSM presents us with yet another angle of Kartra$$ian's behind, a twerking Cyrus or a shirtless Bieber] what kind of man he really is. And if the atrocities don't stop, he [Putin] has all the moral right/s to intervene militarily.

The only problem; at what province does he stop?

So, all in all, I guess his current strategy is [given all the circumstances] the best one to follow.

Andrew said...

Anon 00:30:

at the end of April that Putin sent troops to the Ukrainian border and then changed his mind at the last minute. So at that point an intervention looked feasible to him. But after Odessa, the tanks, the airstrikes, etc. it didn't. Probably still doesn't. What changed? I'd like to see some theories. If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?

Putin begn mass exercises in February and sent troops to the border in March.

The US sent USS Truxtun to the Black Sea to "conduct exercises" with the Romanian and Bulgarian Navies. Truxtun is nuclear "capable", but was not so armed.

The Crimean scenario played out and Russia successfully annexed the peninsula via popular referendum without military action.

The US forward deployed 18 F15 and F16 planes to Poland and the Baltics with B61 tactical nuclear warheads to arm them. The deployment missions are (1) 6 planes strike St. Petersburg from the Baltics destroying Putin's hometown. (2) 12 planes strike from Poland at Sevastopol to destroy the Black Sea fleet and at Russian field armies invading Ukraine. The deployment is in line with US/NATO security doctrine - tactical nuclear weaponry as immediate counter to a successful Russian military move.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/02/us-nuclear-weapons-in-europe-critical-for-transatlantic-security

Following this threat, chaos in Donbass began in April.

The US diverted USS Donald Cook to the Black Sea. Like Truxtun, Cook is nuclear "capable", but not so armed, having deployed in January.

Russia responded by buzzing Cook with a Sukhoi to state Russia would send her to the bottom in seconds. After Cook left, Putin began mass exercises at the border and constructing forward military positions, calling the US bluff and dismissing the threat of the the American warplanes in the Baltics and Poland. In essence Putin said "You are full of it, I will shoot down your 18 planes and their bombs and I will send you warship to the bottom of the Black Sea."

The US responded with extreme beligerence in statements in late April/early May. With no change in Russian posture from threats, in mid-May the US sent USS Vella Gulf into the Black Sea. Vella Gulf deployed mid-March from Norfolk after the annexation of Crimea armed with much of the active complement of W80 strategic nuclear warheads for surface ships on its up to 122 Tomahawk cruise missiles and was scheduled to continue to the Black Sea after cover exercises with Britain in April. Vella Gulf is a floating Cuban Missile crisis off Crimea, capable of the annihilating Russia in less than 10 minutes. Each W80 nuclear warhead can destroy a city like Smolensk or Rostov, and the missiles can reach Moscow and St. Petersburg.

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home/9766567.asp?scr=1

As Vella Gulf transited the Bosporous the Pentagon or White House called the Kremlin and threatened a strategic nuclear first strike in the event of an invasion, followed up about 20 minutes with a thermonuclear volley if necessary from the US mainland.

Putin immediately announced a troop pullback to be concluded around when Vella Gulf was due to leave the Black Sea, and this is where things stand now.

Anonymous said...

TV Cannel 'Zvezda' journalists are being held in the Kharkov Region. There are reasons to hope for their liberation in the nearest time
https://twitter.com/DRogozin/status/475533518911848448


FLASH NEWS:
"Star" Journalists released with active and personnal participation of Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
https://twitter.com/A_J_S_B/status/475753725966188544

Hmmmmm... When I read the first tweet earlier today I thought maybe there would be an intervention coming soon because of a for now hidden pretext(tapped phone call or something)... but maybe he was just alluding to the fact that they were working on it.

Josh said...

Saker - There's a couple things I still don't understand with your position here...

Regarding Poroshenko, while his words and deeds have indeed been quite disgusting, I can't say I find them surprising. And I still am not convinced that this means he won't still back down - especially given that, like you've noted, he's a prostitute, not an ideologue.

It could well be that he feels he has to come out swinging with a bunch of tough talk and launching a renewed offensive in order to appease the local Ukra-Nazi crazies and his foreign backers before he backs down when forced to deal with the inevitable economic and military realities.

Regarding the military situation in Donbass, like I said earlier, I still don't see why a direct full scale invasion would be needed when the same military objectives could be achieved through other means.

I'm pretty sure that with the intensified attacks on civilians by the Kiev regime the enlistment in the resistance forces has sky-rocketed. Reports like this seem to confirm that - https://www.facebook.com/TruthfromUkraine/posts/1508893236000690

So they simply need to be sent more sophisticated weapons to let them effectively take on the airforce, tanks, and artillery. And some irregular fighters from the Caucuses or wherever can come to help out. But much better for the resistance be maintained as primarily a local resistance rather than a "foreign" intervention.

The image of Russian tank columns crossing the border could have negative political consequences both within the Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, so better to more fully exhaust other military options first.

crazyivanreport said...

@ Meezer said...09 June, 2014 03:39

Sort of answer to Bosnian Serbs versus Ukrainian Russians differences you'll find in my text

“Without firing a shot” Tragic Consequences

https://crazyivanreport.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/without-firing-a-shot-tragic-cosequencies/

Josh said...

PS - Check out this recent commentary from "Joaquin Flores," who I find to be a very insightful analyst. He also points to a covert/proxy military strategy for Russia. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpqNmE7mdQ8&index=2&list=PL5WdALk2_ZNRTN8uFY-adsDaQ2XeRKJgV

Anonymous said...

Griever said 09 June, 2014 02:52

? Almost as if Russia doesn't want the resistance to end the battle too soon, before the ordinary populace has been roused by the atrocities into total unified opposition to the Kiev regime.

Meezer 09 June, 2014 03:39
So WTF is the problem with the overwhelming majority of guys in Novorossia?? Their villages, towns & cities are being shelled & attacked by Nazis, yet they want to sit this one out???
_________________________________
Best Contributors Analysis to date, Novorussia needs to rise, the Russians are not seeing that, where are the 7 Million Novorussians? where is the unity?....dropping a Yes vote in a box (Putin even told them to hold off)and going back home for a coffee is not the makings of an Independent State,,Crimea had Russian troops, Donbas does not and Russia is holding itself out as an adherent to International Law and getting respect for it, look at the way they handled Syria,,,Novorussia must realize that only overwhelming groundswell support will work....they can not put Russia and the world at risk....

whattherussia said...

Nope. Just because Goldman & minions are trying ever harder to force Russia to action doesn't mean Russia's suddenly going to decide it's time to get stupid and take the bait.

I see them increasing covert support. Donbas antifa is certainly in with a fighting chance, not in desperate or immediate need for daddy to come save them.

C Stegiel said...

The United States is upping the ante over Ukraine. I am not so sure that a hot war can be avoided if the United States and NATO decide to wage one. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/us-air-force-sends-2-b-2-stealth-bombers-uk

Anonymous said...

It si hard time the Russian Army melted the... "Chocolate"!

Anonymous said...

To all those mentioning how few fighters the resistance has, it is worth looking into Strelkov's words about how they have to turn people away due to a lack of basic fighting supplies. He also pointed out how they needed to have the rear lines protected in order to mobilize. There have to be safe areas to go and organize.

But, Saker, we basically surmised that NATO was going to escalate as much as possible, till it was stopped. Since Russia couldn't get a coup or anything organized, the current situation was totally to be expected. You seem to be saying that Novorossiya can't hold on - but this was predictable, unless Russia gave aid or arranged for massive supplies from Ukrainian military bases.

Tom Garrett said...

While I admire this blog and Saker's dedication, I have never agreed with the notion that Kiev gang, installed and backed by my accursed government, is disintegrating before our eyes. And, while I have curbed my tongue in this forum, I have never trusted Putin to do his moral duty to protect thousands and thousands of innocent civilians--men,women,children-- many of Russian descent-- from terrible suffering and massacre that lies before them. Without water the city of Slavyansk cannot hold; the situation is absolutely desperate.Fighting men can probably break out if they choose, but God help those left behind. Another Sebrenica--indeed Sebrenica writ large--may be in prospect.

The worst of this is that it would have taken very little--probably no more than evidence that Moscow meant what it said--to have deterred the attack. Even now, an ultimatum combined with overflights could--as the Brits put it "see them off".The next few hours will tell us what Putin is made of. I am hopeful, but not sanguine.

The Ukrainian forces are now perfectly deployed to be scooped up. The use of airborn/airmobile units to block the major roads to their rear combined with a mechanized thrust west across northern Lugansk to the embattled cities, would create panic and mass surrender by conscripts,wild flight by the rest. No bloodbath necessary.

I hope, hope --as most of you are also hoping--that this--or something akin to it--is what we shall see.

Tom

Afterthought said...

There seems to be a bipolar leap from celebrating Putin's brilliance-in-inaction to calling fort his head unless he unleashes WWIII;

the answer is that there is much that can be done in terms of rhetoric, media battles, playing the gas card etc.

Putin has yet to go on record and say that people who are Russian and who want to be a part of Russia will be protected by the full power of the Russian State. Russia may not be able to defeat the West in an expeditionary battle, but it can annihilate the West with ICBMs if the West doesn't respect honorable terms.

Putin has yet to call out the New World Order in a way that those in the West sick of their own governments can sympathize with. He speaks as a Russian, not as a citizen of the world.

There will be a World Order, make no mistake. The question is what kind? Putin needs to rise to the equation and take the mantle of leadership of the world and define an honorable world order worth fighting and dying for.

Do you want the psychopaths in charge now to have robotics, AI, and total control over humanity? I don't. There are fates worse than WWIII.

Anonymous said...

@ guest77: "I think your concept of the Communists leaves much to be desired. They are a loyal opposition, and quite supportive of Putin. Plus they want to see the best for those in the east - who seem driven in large part by the left."

I agree.

The NWO is another testimony of the evil inherent in the capitalist economic system, which holds that private vices are public virtues.

Economically, we are all slaves (re Belloc). But I would prefer to be a slave under Stalin's National Communism, which shot thieving officials and hung foreign agents, than "free" in the Anglo-Protestant market system that goes by the name of liberalism.

Conservative that I am, I've never thought Marxism more relevant than it is today.

-Armenian Catholic

Anonymous said...

[Quote:]
Arab officials have been briefed in Moscow on the new emerging Russian national security doctrine ....

The doctrine holds that the US and its allies are engineering revolutions and uprisings in key areas around the world to destabilize governments and replace existing regimes in order to establish control and exploit natural resources. Furthermore, the doctrine treats the US as a dangerous nation that seeks to dismantle the Russian statehood.

High level military representatives from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Syria and the United Arab Emirates were briefed at the third Moscow Conference on International Security on May 23 and 24.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140603/DEFREG04/306030028/Arab-Leaders-Briefed-New-Russia-Doctrine

Anonymous said...

Shaker, Here is a good read that won't be on any western news sites. the CMD of the DonBass area spoke. Should give you some new insight.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/shadowy-commander-east-ukraine-insurgency-speaks

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with you re Poroshenko--just as the devil is in the details so the heart is in the nuances and this Neocon Nazi was crystal clear in what he is all about. That speech was for the consumption of his Masters--most people in the Ukraine don't want to kill their fellow citizens in a nasty drawn out or even short, brutal civil war. From the day after his inauguration there is blood on his hands. Note carefully Putin's nuances and the details in his speeches. He is no fool and realizes that an all out war on Donbass is ipso facto a war on Russia--thus the Corporate media's insistence on calling the insurgences pro-russians rather than Russian speaking Ukrainians which is what they are. No, the US military hard liners have bigger fish to fry ( not Carpathian trout this time).

Anonymous said...

Watching Putin during the G7 meet was fascinating. His smile when Obama ignored him said a lot. Him standing alone when the others were all bonhomie with each other was an insult. Yet he was patient, and met with them later. Patience ensures success.

I think Putin knows what he's doing. And what he's doing May not be right for the present, but may be good for the future.

I know this is a bad example, especially since people are dying, but if you have gangrene in a limb you don't sacrifice the whole body.

Let me give another example. When Mughniyah was assassinated, Nasrallah did not attack Israel, he told them we will reply in our own way in a time and place of our choosing.

I think you need to wait and watch, and inform.

I don't think the future of the planet is being decided in Novorossia. It's one page of history, one cruel, tragic, bloody page of history in the making.

Mindfriedo

Anonymous said...

Hail Mother Russia - the last front against American imperialism, NATO expansionism, Globalism, Zionism, Islamic fundamentalism and pan-Turkism.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,
Za vrijeme Austrije je bio neki Austrijanac po imenu Ludwig Gay
kojeg su Hrvati prekrstili u Ljudevid Gaj.
On je vidio da u austrijskom carstvu [ ono sto je danas Hrvatska ] zivi neki slavenski narod pa mu je dao identitet " Iliri " svrha je bila sprijeciti da se to stanovnistvo identificira s Rusijom.
U ono vrijeme Austrija je granicila s Rusijom i to identificiranje s Rusijom je Austrijancima bila prijetnja.

Slicno su Britanci napravili u JAR dali su crncima neke identitete kao sto su
Tsonga, Sotho, Tswana...
Britanci su im dali i alfabet, jezik, simbole, himnu, identitet.
Sto ces vise !!!
Crnci su im na to odgovorili s uzdignutim kaziprstom.

"Pametni" politicari su dali Makedoncima neki identitet da ne bi gravitirali prema Rusiji - danas imaju identitet, nezaposlenost, zaostalost i uce strane jezike, ne mogu emigrirati nigdje i ne znaju ni sto znaci proizvesti ni vlak, ni auto, ni avion, ni brod, uz to su samo dno dna Europe.
Ali imaju identitet, sto ces vise od toga !!!

Anonymous said...

Another way of thinking, This is midterm election year in US, democrats are not doing well at all. So Obama is trying to trying to help, going after Russia and Syria is his method of choice.

I really think Moscow is over thinking all this stuff, and not going to act. But it seems at least started fighting back with law suits, nationalization, and threat of gas cut. But is is not enough, should tell eu, stop bombing, or no gas. I really can not get over with it, for all those months, its people was been killed, and it still sending over free gas. I would try them as accessory to crime.

Cicero said...

Back when Russia began its annexation of Crimea in late February, I recognized the need for Russia to continue expanding its re-absorption of Ukrainian territory to secure it's long-term security. I figured it would take at least fifteen years. While I admit the day-to-day behavior of the Kiev Junta makes me sick, I've come around that my initial gut analysis is correct. That Saker was right as well in his belief Putin needed to wait for things to fall into place.

You have to understand something that that is the cornerstone of this crisis: Birth and Death rates. Ukraine is dying; Russia is springing back to life. I advise you to look at the following sources:

http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/ (In Russian, he gives up to the moment updates about Russian demographics, very useful. He's also quite vocal about Russia's need to intervene in the Ukraine, but that's not the reason I read his blog.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia (For a basic overview of trends.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Thanks to fourteen years of hard work, Putin has created a society where Russians feel confident about having children again. And those children will live longer, healthier lives than any generation since the Brezhnev era. In fact, as current trends seem to be going, Russian life expectancy will match other European countries in this generation. That is a remarkable turnaround from the disaster in the late 90's.

Ukraine on the other hand is rapidly depopulating, from both natural attrition and emigration. Is it any surprise that the most bellicose region of Ukraine is the West, where the birthrates are the highest? They think they are the future of the country, and the campaign in the East can be seen as a logical extension of this confidence, misplaced as it is.

Meanwhile the Eastern regions are the hardest hit by the demographic bomb despite having the lion's share of the nation's industry and resources. But they were passive in their own dispossession until two months ago, and many are still sitting around waiting for a new generation of Russian youths to be maimed and killed solving the problems they were too timid to confront when there was still time to do so. Why must the Russian Federation immediately throw away its gains for a people who shunned them twenty-three years ago? Who overwhelming went along with Kravchuk's foolish plan to separate Ukraine from Russia without any consideration of what that might lead to?

Just when things are starting to get better for Russia, Putin is faced the stark choice of plunging his people into war. He's fought two since coming to power, but this one would dwarf them and threaten everything he has worked for. More than 146 million Russian lives hang in the balance here, Putin cannot be rash. If anything I have come to respect him more because he has shown himself the complete opposite of the impulsive warmonger his foes in Washington accuse him of being. That is because I feel that if he acts openly, it is going to be all the way. He will not stop at the Dnieper, or Odessa. He will take Ukraine whole and start from scratch in rebuilding it so that this bloody farce the Banderites have created can never reemerge.

The battle over Ukraine is only a little over three months old. This is going to be a long war, with a lot of missteps, and its easy to get caught up in the moment. But Russia cannot rush this. The Ukrainians, and that includes the Easterners, have royally screwed up their country, and those among them that want the Russian Federation to intervene are going to have to accept that assistance on Russia's terms, no theirs. That means working on Russia's time table, not Novorossiya. I have a lot of faith in the Donbass militia anyway, they are day by day proving they have what it takes to hold on. This is not Bosnia part deux, but it will require strong nerves for those who wish to see the right thing done.

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot for your sober, sombre, reasonable words. They make a lot of sense to me, viewing this hellish tragedy and treachery from a distance without such grievous experience as Saker made with Bosnia.

Saker himself only recently analyzed that Putin is purposeful, concentrated, and ruthlessly rational. He is strategically effective, without minding huge body-counts of victims (Chechens, e.g.). Some people, including around me in the West, (mis!)interpret this mindset as a sign of Putin being in league with the West or (at least) an adamant Machiavellian even worse than Western leaders are (okay, being a Machiavellian is still a different thing from a total pervert and Satan-worshipping bag of human flesh ..., in my opinion, so technically these heart-bleeding Putin critics might be right)

Saker, with all due respect, I propose that Grieved is for this time catching more of the light and your "change of heart" in evaluating the situation arouses from your horror to see the body-count, this time, among innocent Russians and the whole war approaching somewhat over the (hithertoo huge gap) towards ww2-dimensions.

Or towards the Syrian toll of suffering, which still is not completed even now. ... Maybe it's nice for me as a German to write this, but then (a) we might have our share of sufferings right ahead of us in the not so distant future with these ilk of "leaders" we have, and (b) after all, we're all (Syrians, Russians, good-willing Chechens, the German minority disgusted with the empire, the Jewish crowds of individuals refusing to bow down to both Zionazis or Rabbis-smarter-than-God) in the same boat of humans against Satanists.

God, have mercy on us!

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot for your sober, sombre, reasonable words. They make a lot of sense to me, viewing this hellish tragedy and treachery from a distance without such grievous experience as Saker made with Bosnia.

Saker himself only recently analyzed that Putin is purposeful, concentrated, and ruthlessly rational. He is strategically effective, without minding huge body-counts of victims (Chechens, e.g.). Some people, including around me in the West, (mis!)interpret this mindset as a sign of Putin being in league with the West or (at least) an adamant Machiavellian even worse than Western leaders are (okay, being a Machiavellian is still a different thing from a total pervert and Satan-worshipping bag of human flesh ..., in my opinion, so technically these heart-bleeding Putin critics might be right)

Saker, with all due respect, I propose that Grieved is for this time catching more of the light and your "change of heart" in evaluating the situation arouses from your horror to see the body-count, this time, among innocent Russians and the whole war approaching somewhat over the (hithertoo huge gap) towards ww2-dimensions.

Or towards the Syrian toll of suffering, which still is not completed even now. ... Maybe it's nice for me as a German to write this, but then (a) we might have our share of sufferings right ahead of us in the not so distant future with these ilk of "leaders" we have, and (b) after all, we're all (Syrians, Russians, good-willing Chechens, the German minority disgusted with the empire, the Jewish crowds of individuals refusing to bow down to both Zionazis or Rabbis-smarter-than-God) in the same boat of humans against Satanists.

God, have mercy on us!

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot for your sober, sombre, reasonable words. They make a lot of sense to me, viewing this hellish tragedy and treachery from a distance without such grievous experience as Saker made with Bosnia.

Saker himself only recently analyzed that Putin is purposeful, concentrated, and ruthlessly rational. He is strategically effective, without minding huge body-counts of victims (Chechens, e.g.). Some people, including around me in the West, (mis!)interpret this mindset as a sign of Putin being in league with the West or (at least) an adamant Machiavellian even worse than Western leaders are (okay, being a Machiavellian is still a different thing from a total pervert and Satan-worshipping bag of human flesh ..., in my opinion, so technically these heart-bleeding Putin critics might be right)

Saker, with all due respect, I propose that Grieved is for this time catching more of the light and your "change of heart" in evaluating the situation arouses from your horror to see the body-count, this time, among innocent Russians and the whole war approaching somewhat over the (hithertoo huge gap) towards ww2-dimensions.

Or towards the Syrian toll of suffering, which still is not completed even now. ... Maybe it's nice for me as a German to write this, but then (a) we might have our share of sufferings right ahead of us in the not so distant future with these ilk of "leaders" we have, and (b) after all, we're all (Syrians, Russians, good-willing Chechens, the German minority disgusted with the empire, the Jewish crowds of individuals refusing to bow down to both Zionazis or Rabbis-smarter-than-God) in the same boat of humans against Satanists.

God, have mercy on us!

Alright said...

James,
Maybe you could agree with that this one from Counterpunch names the names ?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/06/washingtons-iron-curtain-in-ukraine/

Alright said...

Here is a swedish interview with Sergej Markov, "close to Putin", saying that if Kiev doesnt stop Russia will have to send men and weapons:
http://www.svd.se/nyheter/utrikes/putins-man-varnar-for-svenskt-rysshat_3640114.svd?sidan=1

Malcolm Donald said...

Saker get back on your positive track! Suggest you publish this article in todays London Financial Times.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5829d60-ed48-11e3-8a1e-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=crm/email/201468/nbe/InTodaysFT/product#axzz347jiCopm
Best wishes

Les said...

To the saker, I invite you commentary on the idea as well as the details below.

A war that is more than Geo-Politics.

Perhaps a review is in order to gain a better perspective of the motives and issues driving this war, and as a result the steps necessary to see resolution.

For more than a decade Russia has been providing gas to Ukraine at a substantial discount in order to buy it's loyalty. But that benefit, in large measure , did not go to Ukrainians. In addition to the outright theft of trams-shipments destined for Europe, each of the Oligarchs had their turn at the trough making arrangements to siphon off Ukrainian supplies, then re-sell them in Europe at market rates, clearing anywhere up to 1 billion dollars a year that went directly into the pockets of the Oligarchs.

In short, Russia and the West looked the other way as this corruption created a monster that fed off of the Russian supply of gas. When Russia threatened to shut down this parasitic behaviour, the Oligarchs turned to the EU and used the threat of association to force a deal with Putin.

Should anyone think that the supply of natural gas to Europe is not a big issue, perhaps it would be good to remember it was a pipeline through Syria that would bring Iranian gas to Europe that led to the ongoing war which has reduced huge parts of the country to rubble and taken more than 100,000 lives. Ironically, that pipeline, if it had been allowed to come into existence, would be just the key that would set Europe free to spurn Russian gas and impose sanctions that would really hurt. At this point the West appears to have shot itself in the foot. However, they are not the only ones with bad aim.

When Putin agreed to the 13 billion dollar aid package that caused Yanukovich to spurn the EU and turn back to Russia, it was a deal that would have seen up to 25% of that money go to enrich just one of the Oligarchal families. How so? The long term contract included discounts of up to 40%. With Ukraine bringing in Western fracking companies, Ukrainian gas production (from the Donbass)would increase freeing up discounted Russian gas which could then be flipped into the European market at a huge profit. This led to an Oligarchal war in which, with CIA help, they mobilized the population. In reality the people just wanted to be free of the corruption and those that made it possible – the Oligarchs and their Russian backers.

The key question on the ground is why have the majority of ethnic Russians in the Donbass NOT signed on to fight for the protection of a threat to their language and ethnic existence? I believe that even under the threat of loosing their language rights, people of the Donbass have not signed on to fight because they simply see this as an extension of the Oligarchal war. Why should they die for one family to gain another billion? This perception is rooted in the 13 billion bailout that Russia proposed, a bailout of Oligarchs in which Putin too, shot himself in the foot.

The people of the Donbass do not see this as a fight for their ethnic existence. They see it as a fight to enable one set of Oligarchs over another. While the Oligarchs fight, Lavrov is in Qatar working to set up an OPEC style Natural Gas Cartel that would set production, prices and quotas for the world's largest producers of Natural Gas.

Right now Putin is facing off against both Obama/Nato and the Oligarchs. The key to ending the war lies with the Oligarchs that are funding the mercenary armies. Without them Western political plots are worthless. The dilemma is that buying them off only exacerbates the problem.

Does Putin have enough "cred" in the Donbass that people will trust him to set them free of the Oligarchs and their corruption? Could Putin actually achieve that even if he tried?

Your comments?

Anonymous said...

"I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week"

Ah, what would Putin's first move be?

He would communicate directly with Poroshenko and say the following:

"You can dish it out Poro, but I don't think you can take it. Change your tune, or we are coming to get you."

Putin would start with Poro.

Michael McDonnell said...

Merciful Heaven. Saker. Your mind is beautiful. After that stupefying Roman evening show, now all I need is for the just good God to dump a safe load of grace on that porkine Pope, Francis the expletive deleted First.

Anonymous said...

Don't know what is in the mind of Putin. He is demonstrating an amazing ability to stay focused and undistracted by public opinion and to do right things staying in power for a long time. Great stamina and patience and by now also a lot of experience. Quite possible he knows better than anybody how to proceed.
I'm (certainly naivly) thinking that Russia could possible do following:
Suggest escape to Russia to folks who feel being threated in Ukraine. Put a really big effort there. Then let those who choose to stay bear the consenquences of their own decision. Let the Ukraine as a whole reap the consenquences of allying with West. Let the West go to hell avoiding direct war with it.
Receiving refuges will cost a lot, but probably a lot less than fighting anyway.

We (as a family) certainly trying to convince our relatives from Donetskaya oblast to come to live with us in Russia. They do not feel it is needed (yet). But it is their own choice. I can not imagine myself participating in their local mess. This is really, really their own problem. They should grow up as nation themselves.

Anonymous said...

Think Meezer above nailed it. After all this the vast majority of the Eastern Ukraine is *still* sitting on its butt and hoping someone else will come and save it. Even now, a Russian intervention is *exactly* what the West wants.
Russia, as you Saker said, is a chess player; it plays the long game. The US is putting more and more resources in trying to lure Russia into a war, but at the same time is losing more and more in the eyes of the public opinion and financial stability.
Direct intervention is not an option, no more than it was a couple of weeks ago (sure Russia is not Serbia; you can bet the very moment Putin gives the order, you'll see high-ranking officials of Banderastan dropping like flies in "accidents" and neither Ukies nor US could do anything to prevent that). Safest course, I think, is to keep doing what it's been done: play the waiting game, "dropping" weapons and ammo, and driving wedges between the EU quislings and their US handlers *and* between the Euro people and the EU leadership.

(Finally, speaking of Poroshenko, I'd not give much credit to whatever he says; as you (Saker) yourself said, he's a political prostitute, right now he's doing what the US told him to just because the US pays him enough, but you can bet he's still haggling with Putin behind the scenes to get as much profit as he can from both parties. That also means that Putin can simply buy him whenever he wants. Remember that joke posted some time ago, that one about Putin thinking the Ukie junta were FSB agents destabilizing Ukraine on his behalf: chaos and war crimes by the Banderists actually work in Russia's favor, and as a reader said some time ago, if you come in with tanks after three days of fighting, you're an invader; you come in with tanks after three *months* of slaughter, you're a liberator.

Song said...

The Dayton Accords in Bosnia largely ratified the situation on the ground did they not? The Bosnian Serbs did not lose much in the way of territory despite lack of support from Belgrade.

Milosevic's opportunism had far greater consequences in Krajina, Croatia where the Serbs were driven out.

The Bosnian Muslims did not have the military force to win their war, even with NATO air support. The Croats, with retired US military advisors guiding them, did put together a motivated and capable army and that made all the difference.

How is the Kiev government more capable of assembling the military force to crush the rebellion in Novorussiya now then it was a few weeks before? So far, the Kiev forces have been trying to terrorize Novorussiya into submission, they have shown no appetite for conquering the rebel areas. Why would that change now?

Anonymous said...

With great patience, and personal humiliation from the western presstitutes, Putin has gone the whole diplomacy route. Unlike the shoot-first-ask-questions-later US, he knows that war must be the last resort. However, once there is no alternative, he will be pyschologically prepared to go the whole way if necessary. He knows plans fall apart once the first shot is fired and outcomes are unpredictable.

Putin has the fate of the world on his shoulders. The poor people of Novorossiya are the pawns selected by the global terror state as means of bringing down Russia. Should Russia fall, China knows it is next.

Anonymous said...

This is what readers of this blog can do.

What has to happen is that the indiscriminate shelling of civilians has to make it into the European press.

Write The Guardian, Le Monde, whoever, and ask why they are not covering genocide in Eastern Ukraine?

Now.

Anonymous said...

Hello Saker,

Here my blog with a lot of attention to the Ukraine and a slightly more optimistic long-term view:

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/mccain-visits-bulgaria/

Kind regards,
Dutch

Anonymous said...

Antecedent of Poroshenko:

Kosovo

Oscar said...

http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-090614.html
Hi Saker an interesting article. It might unfortunatly give an explanation for the passivity of Russia. I feel sorry for the people of Novorussia, hope they will not be "sold out". I sitill believe the ukranian experiment will collapse regardless.

bahman shafigh said...

Dear Saker,
you are an excellent observer of the events. But that is exactly your problem. As an observer you bind your hopes in Putin's actions and not in your owns, not in ours. The best way to support Donbass is to form resistance overall. That is what you miss completely. You write about every sentence of the puppet Merkel to show what is going in Germany, but not a silbe about the Monday Demonstrations in Germany, which are meanwhile a effective factor in German political life, which are denonciated from all the presstitute. Exactly that is, what we schould do. Shwoing the resistance and forming it overall.
Only in case, we can strenghten such movements, we can build even international brigades to fight in Donbass against this fasco-olgarchic capitalism. we can hope for a besser future for donbass and for the world.

Victor said...

Porochenko must be given time to hang himself. To invade Novorossiya at this time is unwise, I think. That is exactly what the West wants. There are several things that have to play themselves out. The Ukrainian economy is on the edge. It must be allowed to go over. The economic austerity plan has not yet bitten. The Ukrainians must feel that before progress can be made. The economic side effects of the EU Economic agreement must be felt first - that trade with Russia will become almost impossible under the terms of the EU agreement. And I hate to say it, but the Banderistas must make a complete mess of the East before military action on the part of the Russians is justified.

This is a huge step for Putin. We must give him every benefit of a doubt. Hist history at strategy is near legendary. We need to trust him to act when the fullness of time is there, when the opportunity is greatest. In the meantime Russia must be clearly seen by the entire world to be pushing hard for a negotiated peace - Only after all efforts have been exhausted can Putin act. Even then Russia will face a firestorm of outrage from the West. But at least they will have the right history behind them.

I am not yet convinced, however, that intervention will be necessary. Tymoschenko's ruling party is dead set against Poroschenko. The neo-Nazis are against everyone and at this time only tolerate the present government for practical reasons. In a short time all factions will be fighting each other as Ukraine implodes. We must assume Putin knows that, and that he is playing for time and keeping a clean appearance in front of the world as this happens.

Poroschenko just took power. We now know for certain where he stands thanks to his inaugural speech. Novorossiya has a tough battle in front of them. But let's not forget Putin's warning to Poroschenko to the effect that 'Words are cheap. It is action that will be judged'. This warning has to have time to work itself out.

But not before much blood and pain.

Radik said...

Interesting sidenote:

Nulands "real name" is Nudelman

" In the history of the Nudelman family, the name change was initiated by Shepsel Ber Nudelman (Sherwin B. Nuland, Victoria’s father), "

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=10902

(Interesting article btw about how the crisis in ukraine influences the us-election)

Anonymous said...

Think strategically, not sentimentally. Ukraine is an interest but not a responsibility or vital necessity for Russia.

Putin is safeguarding Russia's core interests. Notice how swiftly he completed the gas deal with China, even if he had to make concessions on price to do so. It will take a couple of years at least to move away from dependence on the dollar and western banking and develop compensatory economic ties to India, Iran, China etc.

The American and EU economies are weak. In a couple of years they are likely to be weaker. It is not in Russia's interests to precipitate a collapse which would also damage Russia and which might lead to even crazier actions from the rabid dogs in Washington.

The Russians, like the Americans, can fight to the last Ukrainian. Russia needs to control it's border with Ukraine to prevent the American/Ukrainian forces from having any excuse for drone strikes or hot pursuit into Russia proper.

Ukraine is likely to soon become a basket case, a failed state which neither the USA nor the EU can do much to help. It may develop it's own factions and problems without much interference from Russia, somewhat like Afghanistan.

It is not in Russia's interest to get drawn deeply into this quagmire. That would be sentimental and endanger Russia's greater interests.

Those who are resisting in the Eastern Ukraine may be able to continue with relative success, with only a little help from their friends, or they may become another guerrilla war in another devastated landscape. Lots of them may die, that's unfortunate. Fewer might perish if more had been willing to make a break earlier. It isn't sensible to expect Russia to sacrifice it's own vital interests to do more for them than they were willing to do for themselves.

If Putin and his successors stick to the traditional Russian defensive strategy of exchanging space and lives for time, they are likely to win, but it will be tough for the Ukrainians.

Anonymous said...

There is some group on facebook in the Czech republic, which is trying to gather volunteers with army experience in order to help "the russian patriots in their fight against ukrainian bandits"

Anonymous said...

I have every faith that Novorossiya will have a bright future under the assumption that president Putin has a plan to intervene. His inaction (especially after Odessa) would probably have been because Russia had hoped the atrocities would cause mass outrage, thus spreading Novorossiya fever outside of the two regions it is confined to currently. I'd imagine Russia has underestimated the power of the Ukrainian media coupled with the Right Guard who have effective military headquarters in most southern and eastern Ukrainian cities.

To add to that, in a military sense, Ukraine is much more difficult to deal with than Georgia was in 2008. One cannot invade a country without making a long term strategy and having the confidence that they'll win. In this regard, Russia probably has formulated some form of plan and may well be implementing final measures when it feels it is the best time.

If intervention does not occur, expect a shitstorm when Nato troops are invited to Ukraine this summer (why hasn't this been cancelled??!!). The war dogs are itching for Russia's resources, the grand prize (after the entire subjugation of Russia) would deprive China of the resources needed to maintain her future superpower role. So it would be in both Russian and Chinese interest for an intervention, not only to prevent a Maidan in Moscow, but to save both nations from the so-called benign hegemon which is bleeding this planet dry.

Anonymous said...

All you guys taking Putin for a weakling at best, for a Pro-AngloZionist in sheep's clothing at worst just because he's not immediately declaring any AngloZionist controlled entity a sworn enemy, suffer from some of the following fallacies in politics (and business and other relations as well):

* There is one morally right way, and I happen to (be the only one in the world to) know it
- Do you have the same access to non-public information such as countries' leaders do?
* The morally right way has to be declared openly, and then acted upon - it's a question of principle
- Pronouncing the morally right way by itself can amount to a threat, e.g. against Poroshenko, which would force him to prove he can't be threatened, and more often than not leads to "now more than ever" reactions - the opposite of what you intended
- What if the morally right way saves a couple of lives immmediately, but triggering bigger events that costs magnitudes more lives later on? Have you really about the possible consequences down the road?
- (Just as an) example: World opinion really turns against Putin, Russia can't sell her energy any more, crashses economically, Putin gets overthrown
- Re: world opinion: It might take time (pluse a channel like RT) to get the world to understand and appreciate what's really going on there, before they'd understand that what Putin or whoever announces is actually morally right
- Sometimes deceit, i.e. saying the opposite of what you really believe or intend to do - is the tactical means to use in order to achieve your goal, and do it with the least amount of bloodletting
* Joining unions/partnerships/organizations (e.g. WTO) dominated by AngloZionists, and used by same to dominate the world, is morally wrong
- Building trust with foreign investors has certainly already paid economically, and might have created momentum beyond potential future withdrawal from that club (like whetted appetite, or contracts that would need to be broken, see France ships, Exxon contracts etc)
- Not telling the AngloZionists that you hate and want to overturn their rule will give you the time needed to build up your economy and military to go the morally right way, otherwise you'll get crushed before you are ready

To consider
* Putin significantly reduced pro-AngloZionist influence of oligarchs
- remember Chodorkovsky? or Berezovsky - the oligarch who made Putin president?
* Putin did not "enable" Libya, that was Medvedev
- and Russia can't protect every country around the world, although vetoing the (afterwards heavily abused) UNSC resolution would have been nice, not forgetting that it always incurs a political cost
* Putin did not "enable" Iranian sanctions, that was Medvedev
- and besides, economically speaking, Iran is a competitor, so Medvedev (and now again Putin) might be thinking selfishly for their own country
* Putin supported Syria more than any other (non-Shia) leader in the world
- and now they are winning, without Russia being painted as a Hitler (not for this one at least)
* Ukraine is much, much, much closer to Russia Putin, both geographically and politically, than Syria
- so why would he cave in willy-nilly when he stood by a questionable ally such as Assad

Honk

Anonymous said...

Honk continued:

That said, and giving Putin the benefit of the doubt, as far as I can tell, Putin is unfortunately not a radical at heart - in contrast to e.g. Chavez. He's just doing all the things for his people that Western countries' leaders are only claiming to do: Protecting them and trying to improve the economy in a way that everyone benefits.

When it comes to East Ukraine, I agree with those commenters suggesting Putin might have more options than the binary "close his eyes" vs. "overt military operation". Besides covert support, let's not forget gas, which even Naziyuk publicly acknowledged Ukraine can't do without. That and he might need some more of RT's time to make the world appreciate the monstrosities of the Nazi-enabled and now partly publicly elected putsch government. Also, people might be asking: Why now? What changed? So maybe he is waiting for a well-publicized "Odessa reloaded" or something to then say: 'nough's enough!

Honk

Anonymous said...

Hi Saker,

I would love to see an analysis of OSCE's involvement in this crisis. My feeling is that Didier Burkhalter is as sold out as Merkel or Hollande. What do you think?

Thanks much in advance.

pooi-hoong chan said...

Chew Siew Meng asks: " Is the Russian Ambassador to the UN tabling reports on the atrocities committed by the Ukies against the people of Eastern Ukraine and is Lavrov giving press conference on the same, while hinting that Russia will not stand by ? At least these steps should be carried out before any military intervention. But I do not see that this is happening.

Even Rt.com and the Voice of Russia has toned down their reports and criticisms. This is a bad sign."

Petri Krohn said...

I am loath to close. We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.

–– Abraham Lincoln, First Inaugural Address, March 4, 1861.

Anonymous said...

This is the problem:

The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia was NATO's military operation against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia during the Kosovo War. The operation was not authorised by the United Nations and was the first time that NATO used military force without the approval of the UN Security Council and against a sovereign nation that did not pose a threat to members of the alliance.

It is no accident that Obama posed in front of a Polish F-15 with the Polish Puppet.

What is positively miraculous is that Putin annexed Crimea with Russian troops (and God was he nervous about the fact they were Russian troops!) and didn't get bombed by NATO.

If a single Russian soldier in uniform crosses the border into Ukraine, NATO will immediately bomb that Russian soldier into the stone age. There will probably be an air war between NATO and Russia immediately. It doesn't end well.

Putin must support East Ukraine in disguise. What he can do to threaten Poroshenko personally I leave to your imagination.

American Russophile said...

Dear Saker,
The poster named Cicero made an excellent point. Why would Putin impulsively throw away the gains made by Russia, under his leadership, over the past 14 years, to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for people that were either happy, or at the very least very passive, when they disassociated and distanced themselves from the Russian Federation back in the days of Leonid Kravchuk, at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union? My Siberian wife, who is 100% a Russian patriot, not to say an outright nationalist, is of the very same opinion. While she abhors the Kiev regime, she is appalled by the notion that Russian troops could be sent to fight a war in the Ukraine. She doesn't want Russia to be saddled with any part of the Ukraine, whether East or West, and she is well aware that the Ukraine is a huge black hole for anyone that either owns it or controls it. So I think that Putin also has to take into consideration the opinions of many other Russians just like her. The man is not a dictator a la Hitler or Mussolini, contrary to what Hillary stridently maintains, and he has to take into consideration Russian public opinion which is far from being monolithic on the topic of Ukraine.
Quietly and steadily feeding and assisting the resistance movement underway in the Ukraine is probably the most cost effective way for Russia to disrupt the plans of the Ukie nationalists and their American puppet masters.
You keep ranting about uncle Shmuel, but perhaps you could direct some of your venom at Uncle Zbig , who to my knowledge is no great friend to the Zionists, and seems most times quite irritated with their antics.
All the best,
American Russophile

know the truth said...

Have just seen a report on aljazeera news channel that doesnt bode well for the future. Apparently kiev is now accepting all sorts of neo nazi fascists from all over Europe as volunteers to be incorporated into the "national guard" and a newly created unit called the azov unit. They come from Italy, Sweden, Germany, the french foreign legion and there was even one from Russia, with the one thing they all have in common being hardcore die hard neo nazis and fascists willing to fight for the junta I kiev. I dont know how this new development is going to play out and I was even surprised that aljazeera broke with the common narrative of western MSM to report it.

Anonymous said...

Good picture: PNAC Project for a New American Century War Plan Map

Anonymous said...

As I said:

The US Air Force has sent more of its bombers to Europe, deploying two B-2 stealth aircraft as part of a military exercise. On Sunday they joined three B-52 StratoFortress bombers already deployed in Britain.

All the visiting American aircraft are stationed at RAF Fairford, a British air base west of London.

“This deployment of strategic bombers provides an invaluable opportunity to strengthen and improve interoperability with our allies and partners,” said Adm. Cecil Haney, commander, US Strategic Command in a USAF statement. “The training and integration of strategic forces demonstrates to our nation’s leaders and our allies that we have the right mix of aircraft and expertise to respond to a variety of potential threats and situations.”


Putin can do what he is currently doing--which we have no knowledge of--and no more.

All the business about strengthening the borders and such like is complete horse shit. Putin is doing everything he can to destroy the Nazi's.

Oh, and the Russian press.

Think about this, Saker. Think about it. Or, perhaps you've already thought about it. Hmmmm.

In any case, if you were Putin, what would you want the Russian press to do?

Well, you would obviously want the Russian Press to scream bloody murder that you were doing nothing. Isn't that what you would want the Russian Press to do? If anything, they're not screaming loudly enough.

"Through indirection seek direction out."

All is well. Vladimir Vladimirovitch has not lost a trick. All those pretty F-15's in Polish hangers with no place to go. A completely supine and lordotic American President without the excuse to bomb. Why, it's enough to make a grown man cry.

Anonymous said...

"As Vella Gulf transited the Bosporous the Pentagon or White House called the Kremlin and threatened a strategic nuclear first strike in the event of an invasion, followed up about 20 minutes with a thermonuclear volley if necessary from the US mainland."

How do you know that? And aren't such threats made useless by MAD? I remember reading something about a Russian ship docking somewhere in the Caribbean during the Crimean crisis.

I'm assuming that the restraining influence of MAD is alive and well and that there is some other reason for Putin's unwillingness to intervene in eastern Ukraine.

Anonymous said...

More context:

Ukraine, known as Europe’s bread basket, is the world’s second-biggest crop exporter, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

ULF has been seeking to expand abroad. In April the company signed an agreement with China CAMC Engineering Co., a state-owned infrastructure group, which will build a grain port, warehouses and meat-production centers in the eastern European country, financed by $4.1 billion in Chinese loans, according to an exchange filing by the Chinese company.

Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, has lost about 30 percent this year. The depreciation may benefit ULF because the crops the company sells are priced in dollars and its biggest costs including wages and fuel are in hryvnia, according to Pablo Mazzini, an analyst at Fitch in London.


War drives the hrynia down which makes the oligarchs richer. But it has to be just the right amount of war. Pure evil.

crazyivanreport said...

@ ALL

You know what? As I watch the youtube films, read the news from SE Ukraine it seems to sometimes that all your and mine wise analyses are worth a crock.

Any evaluation, worldly speculations, suggestions and good will are only shit on the wind.

The tragedy CAN be stopped with such a bang that once and for all no one will be dreaming about Greater Ukraine for the next 100 years.

I read a comment about us-Russian game in "chicken nukes" - who first show his tail. Pathetic. If one US cruiser with W80 would suffice to fully destroy RF what are the remaining ships for - to blackmail Europe or China or the World? If the US was so powerful they would used the damn one or two ships many years ago not bothering with Syria and then Ukraine, what for?

As far as I know only once Soviet back down - during Yom Kippur War when Nixon put Nuke Forces to highest alert. The US back down in 08.08.08 and 2013 close to Syria. But never before Russian troops were being totally withdrawn because of ONE ship! They stop sending their troops in 1973 but not withdrew them!

I do not believe in the push-pull games with nuke toys. There must be a third bottom to this. ;)

Anonymous said...

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_09/Peace-settlement-in-southeastern-Ukraine-to-bear-fruit-in-days-Kremlin-7832/

This might explain why Russia is so defensive right now: they might try to give this a chance.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, if the US was willing to blackmail Russia with nukes over Donbass, why not over the Crimea? You'd think NATO would have loved to evict the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The coup-installed government wouldn't have renewed its lease. Putin saved the fleet by annexing the Crimea. Why did NATO let him do it if it could have blackmailed him with nukes back then?

As I said before, I'm assuming that MAD prevents any such blackmail.

Brian_J said...

Dear Saker,

Here is FM3-24 presumably meant for Ukraine released in May by HQ Department of the Army "Insurgencies and Countering Insurgencies". I haven't much patience to wade through entire docs like this but I notice that they acknowledge GENEVA CONVENTION, COMMON ARTICLE 3:

http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24.pdf

NON-INTERNATIONAL ARMED CONFLICT
13-33. The full body of the law of war only applies during international armed conflict ... During counterinsurgency operations, Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions applies. Commanders must be aware of Common Article 3, and the basic protections that must be afforded to insurgents or others captured by U.S. forces, as well as the status of insurgents under the laws of the host nation.

GENEVA CONVENTION, COMMON ARTICLE 3
13-34. Although insurgencies can occur within the context of an international armed conflict, they are classically conflicts between states and non-state actors that are considered to be non-international armed conflicts.
13-35. It bears emphasis, however, that one article contained in all four of the Geneva Conventions—Common Article 3—is specifically intended to apply to non-international armed conflicts. Common Article 3 affords significantly fewer protections to combatants fighting in a non-international armed conflict than does the full body of the law of war in an applicable international armed conflict. However, it does set a simple baseline of humane protection, along with fundamental rules that reflect the principles captured in the broader law of war.
13-36. Common Article 3 requires that in the case of armed conflict not of an international character (a non-international armed conflict) occurring in the territory of one of the high contracting parties to the Geneva Conventions, each party to the conflict shall be bound to apply, as a minimum, to six provisions of Common Article 3.

(1) Persons taking no active part in the hostilities, to include members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely, without any adverse distinction founded on race, color, religion or faith, sex, birth or wealth, or any other similar criteria.
(2) To this end, the following acts are and shall remain prohibited at any time and in any place whatsoever with respect to the above-mentioned persons:
(a) Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
(b) Taking of hostages;
(c) Outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
(d) The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgment pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as indispensable by civilized peoples.
(3) The wounded and sick shall be collected and cared for.
(4) An impartial humanitarian body, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, may offer its services to the Parties to the conflict.
(5) The Parties to the conflict should further endeavor to bring into force, by means of special agreements, all or part of the other provisions of the present Convention.
(6) The application of the preceding provisions shall not affect the legal status of the Parties to the conflict.


Brian

james said...

Alright said...

James,
Maybe you could agree with that this one from Counterpunch names the names ?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/06/washingtons-iron-curtain-in-ukraine/


Alright, I read the article and have no real argument with it. I'm not sure what your point is but I will make the following comments.

The article has a good history lesson to open with and close with. They are pretty succinct though I have to accept some statements on face value. In between those history 'wrap-ups' is a short analysis section.

The analysis is ok and names names as you say. But the author does not get to the ultimate drivers of the conflict nor their reasons for doing so. What you don't read is about 'bankers' and 'psychopaths', for instance.

I have written a little about them recently here and here if you want to read more. And I will write more over the coming week.

I'm not alleging any deception in that article nor towards any individual Counterpunch author. Many authors are simply ignorant of how banking and psychopathy work. What I'm saying is that the Counterpunch site is like Democracy Now in that what is notable is mostly what is missing from the conversation and it can be a trap for those who read there regularly and think by doing so that they are well informed.

Of course, someone will now link to an article at CounterPunch that mentions bankers and declare me wrong!

It is not about CounterPunch or The Guardian or whatever. It is really about people who consider themselves as thoughtful being lured into thinking about the possibility of world war as if it were a parlour game called "Strategy" and completely missing the point of all the destruction and human suffering so that a handful of psychopaths can become ever richer and more powerful.

People are given reasons and because many don't think it through to the point that they understand it (or not), they sail away thinking they know what is happening and why. When in fact they don't understand it at all but do not appreciate that fact.

This is the same effect as brainwashing, btw.

Maedhros said...

The Russian Revoltion was a epoch making moment.
============================

Indeed! It was the most serious attempt ever made to destroy Russia.
Almost successful, but only almost. It's for this that the Neo-Bolsheviks are trying again so hard.

Sometimes someone is so full of it that you can't tell the difference anymore. The last Czar was the Rus' personified, you BBIIIPPP!!!

A Russian communist who still worships Bolsheviks and their leaders (none of them was Russian and killed millions upon millions of Russians) is an idiot or is a liar (i.e. a Neo-Bolshevik)!

Tertium non datur!

Mohamed said...

Anonymous said...

"Andrew, if the US was willing to blackmail Russia with nukes over Donbass, why not over the Crimea? You'd think NATO would have loved to evict the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The coup-installed government wouldn't have renewed its lease. Putin saved the fleet by annexing the Crimea. Why did NATO let him do it if it could have blackmailed him with nukes back then?"

Haha, Andrew and Hasbara, it was pretty obvious with his discussions with Nora.

Best regards,

Mohamed.

Anonymous said...

This is + or - an automatic translation. I hope it's understandable.
We do not know whether Putin is a false leader, nor know the actual condition of Russia. We will see in the near future. But ..
1974 Kinshasa. Muhammad Ali against George Foreman.
Ali attacks immediately in the first round with the direct and not seriously damage Foreman, then dodged for the rest of the match, occasionally hits him in the face: the face of Foreman swells but nothing decisive. Ali was provoking the opponent challenging him ... Foreman struck with violence and tired. Ali dodged. At the sixth round Foreman was tired, slow and with a swollen face.
In the eighth round a deadly right to the face closes the meeting.
I mean, why accept that the enemy (Uncle Shlomo) choose the desired field, the time, the way to fight?
A thousand small wounds bleed the animal to death.
A knife in the shadows kills like a 357 magnum.
Hunger kills.
The spider waits for the fly falling into the net ...
When they run out of ammunition, the ukies who will do? When they runs out of gas, they will push the tanks?

The weapons used are found incidentally, Gazprom sells 90% of the gas out of the petrodollar ... A thousand small cuts kill the beast. Uncle Shlomo officially gives lethal weapons to Syrian rebels: Russian weapons will also come, there is no alternative, and in the right hands.
Napoleon at the Battle of Austerlitz, when Joachim Murat offered him a cavalry charge against the Austro-Russians who were dividing their forces said that when the enemy is wrong, you must not interrupt him.
Here, I think this. Sorry for the length, but it is not my mother tongue and I do a lot of laps of words to explain what I think.

Anonymous said...

>>Andrew, if the US was willing to blackmail Russia with nukes over Donbass, why not over the Crimea? You'd think NATO would have loved to evict the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The coup-installed government wouldn't have renewed its lease. Putin saved the fleet by annexing the Crimea. Why did NATO let him do it if it could have blackmailed him with nukes back then?

I guess the answer is that they did not expect Russia to act so quickly and boldly, so they simply missed the chance to threaten Putin before the action.

And to put up the threat now is too dangerous because it would put both parties into a corner from which there would be no way out.

You don't do that to an enemy with nukes.

Maedhros said...

Andrew, are you just shocked by the Pope approaching Pentecost, the Trinity Sunday, by a so cool common prayer with Jews and Muslims or are you really saying that sending the Vella somewhere and threatening a strategic nuclear first strike is all that you need to get Russia's obedience? No, it's just that I'm wondering why Putin still has the Kremlin's keys......

Peter Hofmann said...

An interesting link about what is happening: http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/75526.html

Louis said...

Maybe you/we need to be a little bit more patient. Look at this:

http://reseauinternational.net/douma-veut-reconnaitre-les-actions-kiev-genocide/?utm_source=feedly&utm_reader=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=douma-veut-reconnaitre-les-actions-kiev-genocide

Brian_J said...

Dear Saker,

Could it be that the reluctance to join the armed resistance which Strelkov spoke of may pass now that it's becoming impossible to think about keeping one's head low and keeping the mines running and feeding the family? What are the signs for this sort of critical moment in historical resistance movements?

Maybe it's time to drive the family to Rostov and return with a trunkload of gear.

Mao's writings on guerrilla warfare seem to consider some of the issues.

http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/1937/guerrilla-warfare/

The following from third section - Guerrilla Warfare In History

After 18 September 1931, strong anti-Japanese guerrilla campaigns were opened in each of the three north-east provinces. Guerrilla activity persists there in spite of the cruelties and deceits practiced by the Japanese at the expense of the people, and in spite of the fact that her armies have occupied the land and oppressed the people for the last seven years. The struggle can be divided into two periods . During the first, which extended from 18 September 1931 to January 1933, anti-Japanese guerrilla activity exploded constantly in all three provinces. ... They harassed the Japanese unceasingly, but because there was an indefinite political goal, improper leadership, failure to co ordinate military command and operations and to work with the people, and, finally, failure to delegate proper political functions to the army, the whole organization was feeble, and its strength was not unified. As a direct result of these conditions, the campaigns failed and the troops were finally defeated by our enemy.

During the second period, which has extended from January 1933 to the present time, the situation has greatly improved, This has come about because great numbers of people who have been oppressed by the enemy have decided to resist him, because of the participation of the Chinese Communists in the anti-Japanese warm and because of the fine work of the volunteer units. The guerrillas have finally educated the people to the meaning of guerrilla warfare, and in the north-east, it has again become an important and powerful influence. Already seven or eight guerrilla regiments and a number of independent platoons have been formed, and their activities make it necessary for the Japanese to send troops after them month after month. These units hamper the Japanese and undermine their control in the north-east, while, at the same time they inspire a Nationalist revolution in Korea. Such activities are not merely of transient and local importance but directly contribute to our ultimate victory.

However, there are still some weak points. For instance: National defence policy has not been sufficiently developed; participation of the people is not general; internal political organization is still in its primary stages, and the force used to attack the Japanese and the puppet governments is not yet sufficient. But if present policy is continued tenaciously, all these weaknesses will be overcome. Experience proves that guerrilla war will develop to even greater proportions and that, in spite of the cruelty of the Japanese and the many methods they have to cheat the people, they cannot extinguish guerrilla activities in the three north-eastern provinces.


Brian

Anonymous said...

"Ukraine launches dual talks with Russia to end fighting in east and avert gas cut
EU-mediated talks pose challenge to President Poroshenko's commitment to Europe and vow to end deadly insurgency"

Mikhail II said...

Re: “... the US sent USS Vella Gulf into the Black Sea. ... armed with ... W80 strategic nuclear warheads for surface ships on its up to 122 Tomahawk cruise missiles..., capable of the annihilating Russia in less than 10 minutes. Each W80 nuclear warhead can destroy a city like Smolensk or Rostov, and the missiles can reach Moscow and St. Petersburg.”

“... the Pentagon or White House called the Kremlin and threatened a strategic nuclear first strike in the event of an invasion, followed up about 20 minutes with a thermonuclear volley if necessary from the US mainland.”

If true, Tomahawks travel 550 mph, meaning an hour after launch would elapse before significant damage. Russia needs to warn the White house and Pentagon (where sanity might prevail) that any Tomahawk launch would be answered immediately by a total nuclear counterstrike: anti-force, anti-finance, anti-science/industry, anti-1% hangouts (Hamptons, Palm Beach, etc.).

[Living 20 miles north of the White House, I’d sit on my south-facing patio with wife and cats, open the great Tyrconnell Irish I’ve been saving, and raise one last toast to absent friends.]

Maedhros said...

Epistles Reading of Today

11 And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather expose them.

12 For it is shameful even to speak of those things which are done by them in secret.

13 But all things that are exposed are made manifest by the light, for whatever makes manifest is light.

14 Therefore He says: "Awake, you who sleep, Arise from the dead, And Christ will give you light."

15 See then that you walk circumspectly, not as fools but as wise,

16 redeeming the time, because the days are evil.

=================================

10 Finally, my brethren, be strong in the Lord and in the power of His might.

11 Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil.

12 For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places.

13 Therefore take up the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

14 Stand therefore, having girded your waist with truth, having put on the breastplate of righteousness,

15 and having shod your feet with the preparation of the gospel of peace;

16 above all, taking the shield of faith with which you will be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked one.

17 And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God;
==================================
Saint of today (Day Of the Holy Spirit): The Holy Confessor John the Russian, whose relics are on the island of Euboea (1730).

Gayle said...

Former Putin economic advisor: Putin will be checkmated by NATO

http://www.interpretermag.com/nato-moves-not-economic-sanctions-behind-putins-tactical-shift-on-ukraine-illarionov-says/?utm_source=feedly&utm_reader=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nato-moves-not-economic-sanctions-behind-putins-tactical-shift-on-ukraine-illarionov-says

Anonymous said...

Things are coming clear at last. The Banderistas want the land in the east cleared of Moskals. The incentive of 'free' property in the east for anyone from the west who helps out has been raised. So even if the easterners are not killed immediately, if they don't fight for their property while they can, they will end up like Palestinians in Israel, facing increasing restrictions on movement and constant harassment.

Anonymous said...

Here in the US majority of ppl have already been brainwashed into seeing Putin as an invading Gaddafi of sorts. It's appalling. So yes, any tanks rolling in, their footage would be used to justify almost anything short of a bomb. This already started months ago. Crimea was used to further brainwash people here that he was out to bring USSR back and is a dangerous criminal. Before that there was trumpeting of Pussy Riot stuff and anti gay law. The majority now sees him as a tyrant, crazy and now with ambitions of soviet grandeur. They would support almost anything if it was sold to them as : "we must stop him before he goes any further and takes Alaska"

Anonymous said...

As awful as all this is for Novorossiya and Ukraine, it has been a long time coming and needs to play out itself without direct intervention. A visible one would cause too much damage to Russia, and Putins first and foremost concern is with Russia. This is a provocation. Going in now would be suicide.

Anonymous said...

Putin is cold blooded, which is a good thing on this case. A few hundred deaths, across the border, to him are better than thousands or millions if this escalates, which is what would happen if Russia overtly stepped in. Cold, yeah. Smart? Yeah. Internal conflict vs full on war? You betcha. He won't blink and this is why there is a chance for Russia to get through this.

james said...

Gayle said
Former Putin economic advisor: Putin will be checkmated by NATO

http://www.interpretermag.com/nato-moves-not-economic-sanctions-behind-putins-tactical-shift-on-ukraine-illarionov-says/?utm_source=feedly&utm_reader=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nato-moves-not-economic-sanctions-behind-putins-tactical-shift-on-ukraine-illarionov-says


I think you would be well advised to check out who is behind a site like this before posting links to it. The "About Us" links are usually very informative.

Anonymous said...

If it is indeed true that Obumma threaten to nuke Russian cities if Russian troops goes into Ukraine, that would be the best news to feed to the Russian media and let the Russian people express their feelings and outrage, and also at one stroke, nullify all the fifth columns in Russian society.

In fact, this news should be broadcast as widely as possible to the whole world and replayed over and over again. Let Obama be victim of the smear campaign. He MUST pay for what he said. Let the world see him for he truly is, especially by his Amerikan electorate.

President Putin, now wold be a good time to leak this conversation.

Anonymous said...

finally, i agree with you a bit saker

Victor said...

“... the Pentagon or White House called the Kremlin and threatened a strategic nuclear first strike in the event of an invasion, followed up about 20 minutes with a thermonuclear volley if necessary from the US mainland.”

Russia has the technology to completely neutralise Tomahawk missiles, either sending them astray or destroying them before they can do any damage. In return Russia has ship killing missile technology that could completely wipe out any ship on the Black Sea and even the Mediterranean.

I really do not think Russia has anything to worry about in this department. And I find it highly improbable that the White House called Putin and threatened him with a first strike. I would need to see pretty convincing evidence of that.

Gayle said...

@James, yes, I'm acquainted with that site and know what it's about.

But I thought the article, and the points it raises, was interesting enough to post here.

elsi said...

Saker,

I know what happens to your gut.
Sometimes, guts, instinct, warn us of something terrible, which is arround us and that the brain does not want to accept.
I think your gut warn you that we must surrender to the evidence that we are dealing with psycopaths, a partnership with them, to be precise.
And one can not expect compassion or humanity from a psycopath, nor can you deal with him.
Any attempt to rationalize what a psycopath does is a waste of time, while time earning by the psycopath to commit a cruelty or to inflict more suffering.
The psycopath does not appreciate
your patience or a sign of generosity on your part, rather interprets it as a sign of weakness or a sign that you are weakening, you´re on track to become the object of his macabre games.

So one does not meet with psycopaths in negotiations ( as well as having a pompous name like Geneva ). The psycopath will sign whatever, then missing it, because what he likes more ( besides humiliate or break your will )is breaking the rules and the law and cath you by surprise.
So one does not attend kind invitations to celebrate anything with psycopaths and their servants because it´s likely to be a trap to make you any wrongdoing or to make you the subject of more humiliation.
Finally one would not expect the psycopath cares his own death or even the end of the world where he himself live, because his life is so disgusting who does not mind ending anytime with this nothing, where thera is nothing, and don not feel nothing. ASnd he will love that everything runs for those enjoying the fresh air, the sun, the laughter of children, love, satisfaction with knowledge or a job well done, because he feels an intense envy of all who are not like he.

Nothing to do with the psycopath, he´s not going to change.
We can choose to move lanes if we did not feel strong enough to face it directly, or neutralize it.

Abdnour said...

I agree with you that Russia should make a move. Putin sort of promised it if civilians were murdered. I am still hoping that Russia silence is not to be interpreted in a weakness, and I was wondering:
Can Russia make an intervention in Novorossiya when there are so few men from there who have taken the arms to defend their country and their family? what will be the reaction of those who chose not to fight? why don't they fight? How would they react to the coming of Russian troops? how many of them would start fighting agaist Russian troops?
And also:
If Russia goes into an intervention in Novorossiya, would that not weaken Putin argument against an anglo-zionist intervention in Syria? What if the anglo-zionists take as pretxt a violation of international law by Russia (intervention in Novorossiya without Security Council approval) to commit another one of their own (in Syria)
Russia's position is very difficult. Although I long to see the nazis knocked on the head and the civilians protected, I think those factors must be carefully weighed.
Salam

David said...

Dear Saker.

I have been busy with university stuff for the last two weeks or so and only read your blog superficially i.e. I read your posts and Juan's posts, but I did not have the time to follow the discussions properly, so forgive me if I take up issues and questions that you have already answered. Ok so to start with I would like to say that I enjoy your blog so much because it is the kind of sharp and intelligent analysis you seldom get but paired with a moral compass that is not tied to greed, money and empire. Thank you for that!

Now my questions:

1) When do you think by principle a country should intervene in another country? Prevent genocide? Prevent civil war? Prevent mass murder of civilians?

2) Do you think any of the prerequisites for a Russian intervention are fulfilled?

3) Do you not think that the East-Ukraine situation is a bear trap laid out for Russia to walk into? If it is a bear trap for Russia, so that the US can instigate a new cold war, would it be worth for Russia to walk right into so that it can save the civilians that may be killed in the future in Eastern Ukraine otherwise?

4) Do you think that the levels of violence that the Kiev regime is applying against cities and civilians is sustainable for any longer period of time?

5) In general, don't you think that the concepts of R2P (responsibility to protect) and humanitarian interventions are dangerous bullshit ideas that seriously undermine international security and the sovereignty of all countries?

6)Wouldn't an intervention in Ukraine ESSENTIALLY be an R2P intervention?

In my opinion Russia should only intervene if the Ukraine poses a threat to Russia. The only way I think it could threaten Russia is by joining NATO. If that was the case, an invasion seems reasonable.

Sorry in advance for any repeats. If you have already answered my questions elsewhere then sorry for hassle. Kind regards from Malmö.

David K.

Anonymous said...

To Anonymus 16:14

"Here in the US majority of ppl have already been brainwashed into seeing Putin as an invading Gaddafi of sorts. It's appalling. So yes, any tanks rolling in, their footage would be used to justify almost anything short of a bomb. This already started months ago. Crimea was used to further brainwash people here that he was out to bring USSR back and is a dangerous criminal. Before that there was trumpeting of Pussy Riot stuff and anti gay law. The majority now sees him as a tyrant, crazy and now with ambitions of soviet grandeur. They would support almost anything if it was sold to them as : "we must stop him before he goes any further and takes Alaska""

Isn´t it crazy what propaganda can do? I´m truly amazed that such information isolation is even possible nowdays when you are one-click away from all sources. We don´t live in 19. century anymore when only source of information about nations far away were newspapers and you had no other option than trust them. There are hundreds of videos with Putin´s speeches on the internet, many of them translated, you can read russian newspapers online, you can communicate with Russians on forums, in comment sections ... And still you can easily persuade nation of more than 300 millions that Russia is dictatorship and Putin is crazy. Practically to create another reality.

Andrew said...

All:

Regarding my provokative commentary and thesis about the US making nuclear threats to Russia over the Ukraine crisis, please note the following.

1) Of course I do not have a phone tap on the DC-Moscow hotline, what I am presenting is my reading of publicly available evidence from statements made in key press sources. It has been publicly stated that Washington has called Moscow to "discuss" the situation. These discussions are not a chat over a pint of beer, they are statements of intended actions and consequences in the event of certain behavior to permit the opponents to determine opposing intentions, game out events, set "red lines" and the like and possibly come to consensus on a settlement and defuse tensions. If you need an example of such a call, look at the threatening call Kolomoisky made to Oleg Tsaraev a few weeks ago then imagine it is Obama and Putin.

2) A tactical nuclear first strike is long standing NATO doctrine. In the event of a successful attack by Russian ground forces, the standing NATO response is delivery of B61 nuclear weapons from fighters and bombers on the invading armies and key Russian targets. The very small US deployment of a mere 18 fighters to the theater underscores that their function is not the sharp edge of a larger air force strike wing such as seen in Iraq, but to provide a direct response to Russian aggression in Ukraine with nuclear weapons on storage in Europe and now forward deployed to Poland and Lithuania with their delivery aircraft. The targets I stated are suppositional on my part but make sense to me. Destroying Sevastopol and Russian ground forces over the border is obvious. St. Petersburg is less obvious, but the only logical use of 6 fighter-bombers in Lithuania in this conflict when there is an absence of any threats in the Baltics. The proposed destruction of St. Petersburg is an emotional kick in the nuts to Putin, but also gives an opportunity for Moscow to reconsider its actions that provoked the strike and limit the destruction of any conflict by bowing to American demands before the remainder of Russia suffers a similar fate. Perversely, a limited use of tactical nuclear weapons does permit the possibility of a limited nuclear war, because the decision to escalate to a full strategic response of complete annhilation is not required - a white flag can be raised with the loser walking away licking their chops but maintaining their future potential threat posture.

3) It goes without saying that few people want a nuclear exchange. But few people wanted the annhilation of western civilization in WWI either. The existence of nuclear weapons implies their use must be threatened periodically or else their existence does not serve any purpose. If the US, for example, is actually unwilling to ever consider a scenario in which a nuclear response is appropriate, it might as well unilaterally dismantle its nuclear weapons.

(end part 1)

Andrew said...

begin part 2

4) The USS Vella Gulf has been openly stated in the press to be carrying nuclear weapons, has a deployment timeline which supports their plausibly being onboard, is claimed as the US's most powerful surface ship in the press, and was visited in the Black Sea by Secretary of Defense Hagel to reemphasize to the crew the importance of her mission. Everything available publicly indicates many or all of the US's W80 warheads are currently onboard this ship in its Tomahawk missiles. To those protesting that Russia could neutralize this single ship or any launched missiles, all of that may be true, but would you be willing to risk your country and people on finding that out for sure, or attempting a declaration of war by striking her prior to a launch? Apparently Putin was not, because deployment of the ship met an immediate response of troop withdrawal by Russia, with a withdrawal timeline protracted to match the stay of the ship in the Black Sea. As to how such a single ship could pose a credible threat, precisely because it is armed with Tomahawks, it would have the ability to underscore a threat by actually launching, warning Russia of what is coming and offering a timeline for a self-destruct of the missiles for a last minute act of compliance with the demands. Also, the only way a single ship like Vella Gulf could offer a credible threat is precisely by being fully nuclear armed and being threatened as a first strike weapon. Anything less in weapons and the ship is the functional equivalent of a giant popgun vs. the armed might of Russia, and anything less than a first strike threat and the ship is a sitting duck in any shooting war. The presence of the ship only makes sense if it is nuclear armed and in use as a visible threat.

5) The remarkable beligerance of US statements and the full unmasking of western media control in the service of this conflict only makes sense with the highest level of threats being offered to force Russian compliance to US will.

6) Most people here are utterly underestimating the level of US opposition to the annexation of Crimea because they are thinking in terms of fairplay and respect for popular democracy. None of that matters in US power politics. International Law and the like means nothing except full acceptance of the US position on any issue. Borders are sacred until the US wants them changed. Invasions are illegitimate except for ones done by the US. This is what Full Spectrum Dominance means - the only valid position is whatever Washington says its position is now and everyone else has to accept it. Remember that the US never recognized Russia's seizure and annexation of the Baltic States in 1945 and still does not recognize the seizure of the Kurile Islands by Russia, even while the US has formally annexed the Marianas from Japan for herself and forced that to be generally recognized. The US can have occupation troops in Germany for 1000 years and military bases in 100 countries, but Russia cannot legitimately even consider to station any troops outside her borders merely in other CIS countries.

So for Russia to unilaterally seize Crimea under the guise of democracy is nothing but utterly infuritating and outrageous to the American power cabal, and for Russia to take further military actions in Ukraine is considered a valid reason for a nuclear threat.

Andrew said...

All:

One more thing, as a matter of principal, International Law is a construct coming out of the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. The basis of International Law is the legitimizing and regulating of the desired actions of the participants in that peace, thus making it that anything they do within the rules of Westphalia meets automatic acceptance by the "International Community".

In other words, International Law is a statement that the nations of the Westphalian peace - England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden and Spain have moral agency and an ability to act in the international sphere without constraint if they follow the agreed upon rules, and that other nations can only be added to this special group by mutual acceptance, which has only happened to the English daughter nations - US, Canada, Australia, and formerly South Africa. These countries have the legal right to do things like invade other countries, overthrow foreign governments, support revolutions, or combine or break up other states provided they do so as a part of group consensus. Thus, Germany can arm and back Croatia against Yugoslavia, but Yugoslavia cannot defend her own territorial integrity in Bosnia. France can invade Mali and the US invade Haiti, but Iraq cannot invade Kuwait. Britain can seize Cyprus and Egypt from the Ottomans, but Russia cannot take Romania or Bulgaria.

It doesn't matter that this is hypocritical, it is what it is, and the interpretation of the international scene over the past 200+ years will only begin to make sense when you view it through this lens.

Observer said...

Al Jazeera has broken from the rest of the MSM since early last week, we've informed Saker about this, but for some reason he hasn't understood it. It has to do with the fact that the Qatari elite appear to by at loggerheads with the US over their plan to flood the Gas market as well as the US undermining Qatar's Muslim Brotherhood client group in Egypt.

For over a week Al Jazeera's on-site correspondent, David Chater, has been filing reports showing the atrocities imposed on Eastern Ukraine, terming them clear violations of the Geneva conventions.

elsi said...

http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=185802

To move wills article by Andriy Manchuk translate into Spanish, you can read it in Russian through the link at the end.

Andrew said...

All:

The current presence of a threatened US nuclear tactical strike on a Russian invasion of East Ukraine also makes sense of Yulia Timoshenko's seemingly delusional rant caught on phone tap about Russians in East Ukraine that "we should destroy them all with nuclear weapons."

That seems utterly incoherent coming from a former head of state unless one considers this possibility: Ukraine's leadership has greenlighted the US to deliver nuclear warheads on any invading Russian armies in Donbass/Novorossiya, and the green light is specifically to their willingness to sacrifice the entire Russian civilian population of east Ukraine in a nuclear holocaust initiated on Ukrainian territory by America to stop an invasion.

Looked at this light, Yulia was not ranting incoherently, but lucidly discussing with Nestor Shufrych Ukraine/America's actual military strategy. And possibly purposefully using an unsecure phone line (complete with her later "Hello FSB" statement) in order to deliver a threat to Russian leadership and simultaneously discuss the plan with her counterparty.

Anonymous said...

" my Bosnian experience makes it very hard for me to live through these next couple of days."

If you had real experience in Bosnia then you will understand that illusion, over excitement and self indulgence can be deadly.

" Last, and frankly: I want the Polite Armed Men in Green to make minced meat of the Ukie Nazis involved in this disgusting war on civilians. These SOBs don't deserve to live, imnsho. "

Wars will not be fought according to your wishes, but according to the perceived possibilities of the participants.





Anonymous said...

Although Gogol wrote that dogs wrote letters, I expect we are humans writing blog.

As humans we will all die.

Some of you espouse religions.

So what is so frightening about nuclear war?

This fear helps the master whip the dog.

Anonymous said...

To Anonymous 09 June, 2014 20:05

Well, USA is an island nation. Most people here, the general populace, watch and trust TV. Europeans have long been a bit trickier to fool, because European countries share borders, problems and threats. USA is a standalone sort of thing (with castrated Canada/Mexico on both sides) and the people here are completely and utterly brainwashed.

I laugh when my US acquaintances bring up the whole 'freedom of press', Russians are brainwashed etc and so on. Yes, Putin may have shut down some blogs or leaned on some journalists, but the majority of Russians have lived through hell in the last 50+ years - they don't trust ANYONE, and always know that there are ulterior interests and motives when it comes to politics. Americans are so completely naive and that's what's terrifying.

Anonymous said...

Thought provoking posts Andrew. Do you believe that the US has the means to force the Russians to give up Crimea short of a military strike? I am thinking no but there is clearly a full court press on to bring restive Europe in line with US policy through threat, bribery, and extortion. The Russian AWACS planes were up earlier in the crisis - no news on them now... I wonder if the US military is on board with such a policy.

the pessimist

Christoph said...

Saker, anyone acting on your impulses has not understood history and will thus be doomed to repeat it:

By 31 August 1939 some 50.000 Germans had been interned, abducted, or slaughtered by the Polish mob. British "dirty tricks" units had actively participated in inciting the Poles.

For background on Poland's disgusting nationalistic frenzy see here: http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/articles/wrsynopsis.html
(this has actually started in the 1920s).

Hitler "saved" the rest of the Germans in Poland. He "saved" Germany by not taking chances with the Polish army which was fully mobilized by 30 August 1939.
Unfortunately that was also exactly what the Anglo-Zionist masters of conflict had been planning for. Hitler's dozen peace proposals to England after 1 September 1939 went straight into the trash bin.

Fortunately Putin understands the risks better than Hitler and people acting on your impulses do. I sincerely wish the people of Novorossia will not have to go through the nightmare of Germans in Poland.

Christoph said...

Saker, anyone acting on your impulses has not understood history and will thus be doomed to repeat it:

By 31 August 1939 some 50.000 Germans had been interned, abducted, or slaughtered by the Polish mob. British "dirty tricks" units had actively participated in inciting the Poles.

For background on Poland's disgusting nationalistic frenzy see here: http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/articles/wrsynopsis.html
(this has actually started in the 1920s).

Hitler "saved" the rest of the Germans in Poland. He "saved" Germany by not taking chances with the Polish army which was fully mobilized by 30 August 1939.
Unfortunately that was also exactly what the Anglo-Zionist masters of conflict had been planning for. Hitler's dozen peace proposals to England after 1 September 1939 went straight into the trash bin.

Fortunately Putin understands the risks better than Hitler and people acting on your impulses do. I sincerely wish the people of Novorossia will not have to go through the nightmare of Germans in Poland.

Nora said...

Andrew,

While the not-precisely-brilliant current crop of Ukrainian and American oligarch-politicians might well approve the use of nuclear weapons in the Donbass, I seriously doubt their corporate overlords (oh, Monsanto, Cargill and Chevron, to name the first three who come to mind) would favor the very long-term glow-in-the-dark results. It also makes no sense given the latest info on Israeli-style ethnic cleansing, though frankly every one of the monsters responsible for harming utterly civilians deserves to live in a permanent nuclear winter.

Anonymous said...

If Andrew is correct then Mr Poroshenko has likely delivered the US position on Ukraine in his inaugural address. Are he and the Americans willing to give any ground in Eastern Ukraine? I would guess no - so that would mean negotiations are in bad faith - a play for time while additional forces and equipment are brought to bear. Also seems likely that the US intends to introduce and build up NATO forces within Ukraine. Re Tymoshenko - she didn't deny the conversation, just complained it had been edited.

the pessimist

Mikhail II said...

Your analysis may be correct, Andrew. All the more reason why the Russians should warn the U.S via back channel, whatever the hot line is now, that any future threat conveyed to them regarding a Tomahawk ship like the Vella Gulf, nuke-capable fighter-bombers in the Baltics, or whatever (B52’s, B2’s), will result in the following:
(a ) the source of the threat (ship, airfields) will be immediately nuked;
(b ) the Russian nuclear deterrent will go to full alert: subs at sea, mobile missiles deployed, bombers on strip alert at arctic bases, silos ready;
(c ) any indication through technical means of a nuclear attack on Russia will result in an immediate full-spectrum nuclear counterstrike to destroy the attacker.

No nation able to resist this bullying can long exist with a sword of Damocles hanging over its head. While the strong can do what they wish, only the weak must submit or suffer.

Anonymous said...

Here What if there’s an Agreement in the works -- behind the scenes, meeting 3 x over 2 days of talks
From Reuters

Russia, Ukraine edge closerUkraine sees ..”a mutual understanding” with Russia on peace moves

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/us-ukraine-crisis-talks-idUSKBN0EK1V820140609

(Reuters) - Ukraine said on Monday it had reached a "mutual understanding" with Moscow on parts of a plan proposed by President Petro Poroshenko for ending violence in the east of the country.
Kiev gave no details and Russia did not comment directly but two days of talks, following a brief encounter in France last week that broke the ice between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have given momentum to peace moves.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a statement released in Berlin that there was "some faint light at the end of the tunnel" in the Ukraine conflict for the first time in months.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a brief statement in Kiev that Russian and Ukrainian representatives had met three times in the past two days to discuss Poroshenko's plan to end an insurrection by pro-Russian separatists in the east.
"As a result of the work, the sides reached a mutual understanding on key stages of the implementation of the plan and on a list of priorities which will contribute to a de-escalation of the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine," it said.

The talks are being mediated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Vienna-based security and human rights watchdog, but almost no details of Poroshenko's plan or the talks have been made public.[.]
Ukraine signaled last week they hoped to resolve a dispute over the price Kiev pays for Russian gas and its gas debts.

Failure to secure a deal, though, would fuel tension again because Moscow has threatened to turn off the taps on Tuesday if there was no agreement at the latest meeting in Brussels.
As the EU gets about a third of its gas imports from Russia, almost half of it via Ukraine, its member states could also suffer from supply disruptions.

In Finland, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the government in Ukraine and the EU had to work more constructively to end the crisis in Ukraine, but also expressed some hope.
[.]


Let that “faint light at the end of the tunnel” shine as the mid-day sun.

Hope faith and charity
Anon Mongoose

Brian_J said...

Andrew 09 JUNE, 2014 21:04

That is an odd take on Westphalia. Sounds more like "might is right" doctrine. I would suggest reading a good general article on the subject. England was not a signatory. Russia had a free hand to wage war against e.g. Sweden, winning extensive concessions in Baltic by Treaty of Nystad in 1721 and again under Treaty of Åbo in 1743 and later swallowed large chunks of Poland which had been allied with Prussia.

It seems odd to consider Germany as a "Westphalian nation" for while numerous German speaking HRE and non HRE states participated the idea of Germany was still a few centuries in the making. In a curious twist, France, whose diplomats engineered the treaty(s) had, by undermining Hapsburg power created the conditions that allowed those numerous German states to gradually coalesce under Prussian leadership until they were strong enough to handily beat Hapsburgs and then France in the second half of 19th C.

Westphalia is dying a slow death in our time mostly because it took exception to supranational government which is all the rage in Europe and NA post WW II.

Brian

Andrew said...

the pessimist:

Russia fought to the last man and last bullet in Sevastopol in 1855 and 1942, and never gave up the port and fleet after 1991. She never recognized the right of Ukraine to the peninsula in contradiction to the wishes of her populace or the seizure of the Federal City of Sevastopol by Ukraine in 1991. At the first opportunity, Russia re-seized and annexed the entire peninsula in spite of vociferous Atlantacist opposition.

My conclusion is that nothing will dislodge Russia from Sevastopol and Crimea short of total military defeat and the enforced partition of Russia.

Lohmann said...

Thought provoking posts, indeed, Andrew. Thank you for your insights, which, together with Sakers, provide for fascinating reading.

When connecting dots in the big picture, I wonder if and how the reputed purchase of 1.6 billion rounds of ammo by the DHS, the NDAA, and the FEMA camps are connected to the growing rumors of a nuclear first-strike plan...

Protests in case of a nuclear flare-up? Doubtful, given the passive credulity of the populace of the Benighted States of Mammon. Maybe it's a way to cull hordes of useless eaters, especially those who horde their constitutionally protected guns? (The Lugano Report may be fictitious, but only because we haven't seen the original.)

Putin may be playing chess, and I desperately hope he continues to play it masterfully: he may be the last remaining bulwark against the suicidal triumph of the greedy sociopathic fascists. Tragically for Ukraine (and the rest of humanity), though, the AngloZioNazis will swipe the pieces off the board rather than lose the game to a better player...

Andrew said...

Brian:

Germany today = Austria and Prussia and Saxony at Westphalia.

While establishing International Law and the sanctity of treaties and borders, it is clear that these principles only applied to those nations accepted into the "International Community" formed by Westphalian law. They hardly applied to the Ottomans, Chinese, Africans, or Indians, who were fair game for conquest by Europe.

It is also questionable if they were ever intended to be applied to Russia, and especially to Russia's conquest of Tartary in Siberia, the Caucusus, and along the Black Sea. The Western Powers have never treated Russia as if she had legitimate rights in International Law except when it is convenient for them. See for example the Napoleonic invasion, Crimean War, Congress of Berlin in 1878, struggle over Afghanistan/Persia with Britain, WWI, Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, non-recognition of the Communist government, non-recognition of the reabsorbtion of the Baltic States, dismemberment of the Soviet Union, proposed dismemberment of the Russian Federation, non-recognition of Russian peacekepping efforts in Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, and Nagarno-Karabakh, and the opposition to the Crimean referendum.

Maedhros said...

@ Everybody

Andrew is really worth every single cent to the master.

After all the (very well-constructed) nonsense to convince the little ones about how much the world needs the US dollars (LOL! you must love their insolence), now he is out with this (slightly less well-constructed) nonsense to convince the little ones that you can play just as long you are allowed by his master; then the D-Empire send the Vellasomething and the game is over.
You know, that mighty mighty master.... sometimes he just got bored by his own might and so he will play a little with you, to have a little fun.
It's just for this he has not yet taken over the whole world. In fact, nothing would be more easy: send a couple of Vellas, a few hot calls et voila'!
LASCIATE OGNI SPERANZA VOI CH'ENTRATE!
The master is unjust, ruthless, a murderer and a liar, you are right, little ones; but he is SOOO powerful, almighty I dare to say, you can see that everyday, so just surrender, do not bother to resist and fight, look at the powerful Putin.... a Vella is all that it took.....

Most assuredly I say to you, little ones, trust the Lord and ONLY the Lord, because the Lord is the only One Who can be trusted!

There is only One Almighty and is the One Who did rise the Lord from the dead.
Without the Lord you can do nothing, because He is the only One Who has overcome the world! Take away the (fear of) death and they have no power left. None, Nichts, Nada, Rien, Niente di niente!

Fear not, little flock. Christ is Risen!
And there's nothing that Andrew's master can do about it (apart from trying to take as many of you as possible with him to the outer darkness).

Anonymous said...

@ Andrew, stop the nonsense. There is no such thing as "Westphalian Law", Westphalian treaty revolves solely around sovereignity issues. You know very well that the basis of your (anglo-american) law is the Magna Carta, which is based on the bible ultimately (the authority of the king is "god-given"). Which is to say, the whole concept of law as we know it in the west today is illegitimate.

Which is entirely unrelated to the fact that the BAR association defines what the "law" actually is.