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Saturday, May 3, 2014

Ukraine SITREP update - May 3nd, 16:20 UTC/Zulu: "the mysterious Russian soul?"

What happened in Odessa yesterday is much worse than what the initial reports had indicated: it was truly a deliberate and blood-curling massacre.  To summarize:

In Odessa the pro-Russian demonstrators had never seized a building, all they did was erecting a small tent city and hanging out there.  Hardly any violence had taken place.  Yesterday, the neo-Nazis finally made their move:

1)  They bussed in large numbers of Right Sector thugs.
2)  They then got the local football hooligans (paid by oligarchs according to some reports) to begin a nationalist demonstration.
3)  The Right Sector thugs then joined the hooligans and together they viciously attacked the pro-Russian tent city: the tents were torn down and the anti-regime demonstrators viciously beat up to a pulp.  The local cops stood by and watched.
4)  The anti-regime demonstrators ran literally for their lives towards the building of Unions which had been their normal rallying point at which point they were surrounded and the building set ablaze.
5)  Those attempting to leave the building were severely beat up and many murdered.  Many were shot while standing in the windows to flee from the flames.
6)  The neo-Nazis did not let the firefighters through.
7)  With each jumping demonstrator or each person shot in the windows the crowd would scream "Glory to the Ukraine!  Glory to he heroes!"  Many took souvenir videos.  For them, this was a joyful, liberating event.
8)  The Ukrainian social networks flooded with joyful messages congratulation the "heroes" in Odessa and promising more of the same to the accursed Moskals.
9)  The Western and Ukie press reported the events as a "clash" with "casualties" but with no reference to any one party causing this massacre.
10) The last fatalities figure was at 46.  But with many dying from smoke inhalation and, especially, burns, it will probably go up.

So what about Russia in all this?

I am amazed to see so many commentators posting messages here like "Russia has surrendered" or "Putin has caved in" or "Russia has made a deal".  Truly, I wonder if there is some kind of "mysterious Russian soul" that is so hard to understand.  Nora also asked a very interesting question.  She wrote:
Saker, am I wrong about this or is Putin's reluctance based in large part on a profound cultural and historical lack of blood-lust? I mean, we certainly have no compunction Just Plain Destroying... women, children, cultures, societies: really, that's just what we do, at home and abroad. But apart from Kiev being holy as the beginning of both Russia and her Orthodox faith and wondering how any Orthodox Russian could attack it despite it being perhaps the prime military target, I am so struck by the great desire of the people, all over Ukraine really, not to kill their own. I sure don't see that here -- even the militia types supporting Bundy are now at each other's throats. I'm not being very articulate here and don't really know how to take this observation, if it is real, to the next step because I just bump into this wall of "How does morality fight immorality without losing in this life?
So let me try to make sense of all this.

First and foremost, let's remember the not too distant past.

The very first thing Putin did when he came to power was to prosecute and win an amazingly violent and vicious war against the Chechen Wahabis.  As I have mentioned many times here, a typical situation during that war was like this:  a Russian commander would be met by a delegation of local "elders" who would assure him that their village was peaceful.  The commander would reply "okay, we will not enter your village, but if a single shot comes out of it, we will wipe it off the face of the earth with artillery fire".  And they did so.  Every time.  With artillery and multiple-rocket launcher fire.  A huge number of civilians died because a village of 500 people would harbor 20 or 30 insurgents.  And when the commanders of this operation were accused of war crimes (like General Shamanov) Putin not only stood by them, he gave many them the highest Russian decoration: Hero of Russia.  Does that mean that Putin was a bloodthirsty genocidal maniac in 1999 and that in 2014 he turned into a pot-smoking peacenik singing "give peace a chance"?

Of course not.

In 1999 Russia had absolutely no other option left.  None.  The Wahabi insurgency had to be ruthlessly crushed or Russia would collapse.  So if the numerous massacres (on both sides) in the First Chechen War were the result of gross incompetence and total indifference by the gang of Jewish oligarch in power under Eltsin, then the numerous massacres (mostly committed by the Russian military) in the Second Chechen War were carefully planned and systematically executed by the military high command with the full backing of the Kremlin.

I am not writing this to trash Putin or accuse him of being a war criminal.  I am, like most Russians, absolutely convinced that Russia had no other choice.  I even think that this willingness to deliver a massive amount of violence in specific circumstances saved a lot of lives, shortened the war and was actually met with a great deal of understanding by a lot of non-Wahabi Chechens.  What Putin and Kadyrov (himself an ex-field commander and also a man with a reputation of ruthlessness, which he does not even deny) achieved in Chechnia is nothing short of a miracle and today Chechnia is a fantastic success story.  But to make that possible, the Wahabis had to be quite literally eliminated, one by one, and all their sympathizers given a stark choice: desist or die.  Do I really need to remind you all that Putin is the guy who, after a Chechen terrorist attack, publicly declared "we will hunt them down and kill them, and if they hide in a toilet, we will kill them there" (he used a slang term "mochits" which means to "off", "waste" or "whack" somebody).

Guys, never underestimate the potential of a person like Putin to mete out a huge amounts of ruthless violence if needed.  So far all those who have done so have paid dearly.

So why does Russia stand by and do nothing?

Guys, when the Russians look across the border they see two groups they really really hate: Nazis and oligarchs.  Them they would gladly kill with even more ruthless mass violence than the Chechen insurgents some of whom at least they respected as courageous combatants.  But besides Nazis and oligarchs they also see their own fellow-Russians, who are in a bind, stuck between stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Did you guys see the footage of the Ukie army captain shot down by the pro-Russians over Slaviansk being rescued by the locals?  Normally, captured Mi-24 pilots are not treated kindly as they fly a truly terrifying machine which even the Afghan guerrillas feared.  In Syria today, these guys typically are tortured and then executed.  In this case, I wish you could understand the audio, the pro-Russian militiamen were encouraging the guy by saying: "brother, no worries, we will get you to a hospital, hang in there captain, you still have a long life to live, don't let go, just a little longer and you will be fine".  There was such an outpouring of compassion towards this men that it was absolutely amazing to see (if somebody could post a subtitled video of this footage that would be fantastic).

Now please understand that if/when Russian intervenes in the Ukraine there will be a lot of people killed.  How many neo-Nazis or oligarchs to you think will be manning the Ukie Mi-24 which will be sent to try to stop the movement of Russian armor?  How many oligarchs or neo-Nazis will be told to take off in old and poorly maintained SU-27 or MiG-29 to try to stop the Russian Air Force?  Zero of course.

And if in Crimea there was not a single shot fired in anger, this will not be the case in the Donbass because it will be much harder to distinguish who is who.  Think about it: you see a tank in your targeting scope.  Say an old T-72, which you can easily smoke, but whose 125mm smoothbore shell still can kill you and your entire crew.  Will you take the chance and try to talk to the other guy?  What if his family is a de-facto hostage of the junta?  What if he is simply terrified of your upgraded T-90 and shoots first?

The Russians know that most of the Ukrainian military is completely on their side.  It is enough to look at the tense and embarrassed faces of the Ukrainian paratroopers which attacked the checkpoints around Slaviansk yesterday to see that they are going through a painful internal struggle.

The Russian military culture is profoundly averse to shooting on civilians or fellow Russians (and I mean "Russian" not ethnically, of course, but in a civilizational sense).

Furthermore, there are two ways to achieve deterrence: denial and punishment.

The first implies that you deny the other guy the means to achieve his goal.  The second one means that you punish him if he acts.

Now, let me ask you: how does the Russian military deny the neo-Nazis in Odessa the ability to attack a tent city or burn people alive in a building?  And if Russia cannot do that, then whom does Russia "punish" for that and how?

I promise you that if Russia had a magic death ray weapon which would only kill the Ukrainian neo-Nazis and oligarchs Putin would have used it a long time ago.  But Putin is not Obama - he does not believe that such a magic death ray weapon (Obama calls it "drones") exists. Putin fully understands that if Russia moves in there will be a lot of innocent people killed, including pro-Russian Ukrainians, including decent anti-Russian civilians and, of course, Russian soldiers.

The outcome, however, is not in doubt.  As I have said here many times, Russia can occupy all of the Ukraine if needed and there is nothing the US/NATO can do about that except protest, gesticulate, threaten, grandstand and increase global warming by a massive release of hot air.

There is no "mysterious Russian soul".  Many in the West have a hard time understanding Putin because they are so used to completely irresponsible politicians who have been carefully selected by the West's "deep state" precisely for their lack of even basic decency, their knee jerk use of violence as the method of first resort and their eager willingness to reject any form of negotiations.  What is mysterious is not the Russian soul but the West unique track record in meting out senseless violence over and over and over again and to hell with the consequences.  That is the real mystery.

I also want to say this: up to the moment Putin ordered the "Polite Armed Men in Green" to take Crimea under control, the comments section was full of the very same comments accusing Putin, the Kremlin and Russia of selling out, of weakness or of surrender.  Then, quite literally overnight, everybody went "WOW!" when the Crimean Peninsula was taken without a single fatality.  Why are we repeating the same mistake today?

I promise you, Russia is ready to intervene in the Ukraine.  To my immense sadness, I even suspect that it will.  Clearly the US wants Russia to intervene to have a pretext for a new Cold War which would re-subordinate the EU to the US, prevent any Russia-EU rapprochement and give NATO a justification for its absurd existence.  As for the freaks in power in Kiev (Timoshenko: "we have to execute these accursed Moskals with nuclear weapons") they have nothing to loose and they will obey any order coming from their western masters.  The recent events in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Odessa can only be understood as a provocation to force Russia to intervene.  Sadly, this technique might work and those who are now cheering for a Russian intervention might get their wish.

Personally, if Russia sends its military into the Ukraine I will not be rejoicing.  I will be heartbroken (even if I will also be elated by the fact that all that neo-Nazi scum will finally have an opportunity to shows its worth in a fair battle agianst the acccursed Moskals).

I personally am deeply grateful to Putin and his outstanding government for not intervening so far and for waiting until the very last second, when there is really no other option left, before doing so.  Frankly, my hope is that the Russian-speakers in the East and South of the Ukraine will find a way to secede from Banderastan without any overt Russian intervention.  So far, I see no signs at all that the Ukies are winning this one.  Yes, reports say that they have taken most of Kramatorsk today.  So what?  During the first Chechen War a hapless Russian armored brigade also "succeeded" in "taking" the center of Grozny.  Then most of them got killed.

Guys - "taking" a city defended by a guerrilla force is always easy.  Always.  It's what comes after which is really hard.  There is a darn good reason why, at least so far, the Ukie military always withdrew after it's initial "successes".  These guys are not cowards, they are smart and a lot of them remember their training in the Soviet military.  By the way, and this has not been reported in the English blogosphere, did you know that the folks manning the checkpoints around Slaviansk were ordered to withdraw soon after the first skirmishes with the attacking Ukies began.  Why?  Because a single burst of 30mm gunfire form the Ukie APCs would tear those so-called "checkpoints" into shred in just a few seconds.  So what is the point of dying there?  So the defenders pulled back, the attackers seized the checkpoint, declared victory, and promptly left.  That is the real face of the pseudo-war taking place right now.  Every military person there knows and understands that.  It's just the moronic western press corps which just does not want to understand what is really happening in front of it's nose.

So here is my request to you all: let's stop both the pro-Russian warmongering on one hand, and the constant Russia-bashing for non-intervention on the other.  It's not good enough to see some dramatic footage on the idiot-tube to jump to conclusions.  We first must carefully look at the full picture, at all the issues at stake, try to understand both why this or that actor does something (especially if that something seems stupid or senseless) and then develop a hypothesis of what will happen if, say, Russia intervenes with its armed force.  Or if it does not.

It is true that western politicians play poker (bluff) and monopoly (grab it all).  These are all sort-term & immediate results games.  The Russians (and the Chinese for that matter) play chess where you move slow, calculate each move way in advance, offer gambits, sacrifice pieces and there both the opening and the mid-game have the sole purpose of setting up the desired conditions for the end game.  In chess you don't just smash a piece off your board to show how much of a man you are.

I want to conclude this by reminding you of three basic Russian sayings:

Россия не злится, она сосредотачивается.
(Russia does not get mad, she concentrates)

Русские долго запрягают, да быстро едут.
(Russians are slow to saddle-up, but they ride fast)

Eсли замахнулся - то бей.
(Once you swing, then you have to strike)


Maybe these are the keys to the "mysterious Russian soul"?  ;-)

The Saker

118 comments:

fenek said...

Genocyde in Odessa (Ukraine, 2014/05/02):

http://ani-al.livejournal.com/1705540.html

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@EVERYBODY:

Please do check out the link just posted by Fenek (спасибо!):

http://ani-al.livejournal.com/1705540.html

No translation needed. This is the true face of US-backed Ukie nationalism. Rest assured, if this continues Russia will intervene.

The Saker

pug said...

The police in Odessa who stood by and let neoNazis beat helpless burn victims need to be punished.
Did they stand down and let the neoNazis and football hooligans kill just so that the policemen could keep their jobs?
Please help me understand their behaviour.

G Mitchell said...

There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse"

And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible."

And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful."

The Zen master says, "We'll see."

(Get Well Soon )

Tom Burnett said...

The US is just waiting for Russia to defend it's citizens. in Ukraine. Then the Western proganda machine will go nuts. Putin has to play this just right, but I don't think he has a choice left. He must go into Ukraine either covertly or overtly. I hope he doesn't stop until he gets to the Dnieper.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker, I have no doubt that those bloody fascists will be made to pay for their cowardly attack, but right now I can only think of those peaceful pro-autonomy demonstrators who were mercilessly butchered. Peace be to their souls.

As to Putin's strategic thinking, I'll try sending you all this wonderful article written by a Cameroonian geopolitical scholar, on how the Russian president has succeeded in applying Sun Tzu's lessons, "How to win a war without a fight. The example of Russia in Crimea and the lesson for Africa"

http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/91369

Richard

Anonymous said...

Saker,

I too dearly hope that the Russians do not intervene and that a peaceful solution is still possible. I am tired of the internet tough guys who scream for Russia to invade and "wipe out" the regime in Kiev, without a thought for the innocent lives that would be lost. Those who perpetrated the massacre yesterday are criminals and should be referred to the international criminal court. Also the prosecutor at the ICC, fatou bensouda, can institute a prosecution on her own insistence and Russia should officially call upon her to do so. (Ukraine has been a party to the ICC since 2000) Do I expect that to happen? No, but we should at least try to use these institutions even when we don't expect them to act with rectitude. If they don't act then it is institutions that lose credibility, no one else.

Despite the frustration we feel that these murders have occurred we must hold to the principle of creating the least amount of harm possible. The West is desperate for a fight; in fact it needs one to stave off its deepening crisis and hold the interests of its many divergent actors together. Only a war could do that and it would only prolong the misery that the West has visited upon its people. Russia's hesitance to act gives the world a better chance to escape the clutches of Western domination. Let us not allow our emotional response to this horror to blind us to what is at stake.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker, Thanks for the analysis and explanation from a Russian perspective.

To what extent does the Russian government understand the deeper reasons and connections in the west that motivate western actions in Ukraine (and Syria, Libya, etc)?

John

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker -

thank you for yet another outstanding analysis and for your explanations. They make so much sense. I suspect that Putin is laying traps for the Kiev regime which they will fall into, in their vainglory.

As for the inhuman nazis who burned their fellow citizens to death, and as for the governor of the region who thinks this was a great way to 'neutralise terrorists', and as for the silence of the Western politicians: "revenge is mine, sayeth the Lord" - He will make them pay, through all eternity.

вот так said...

Street battles in Kramatorsk, E.Ukraine after overnight assault killed 10 – self-defense

http://rt.com/news/156552-kramatorsk-military-operation-resumed/

Ukraine's battlefield: Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Odessa attacked by Kiev's forces. LIVE UPDATES

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_05_03/Ukraines-battlefield-Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Odessa-attacked-by-Kievs-forces-LIVE-UPDATES-5943/

Kramatorsk appears to be under banderivtsy control now and it's expected that they will attack Slavyansk overnight or in the morning.

Also this odd report:

"21:14 Odessa: During the fire at Odessa's Trade Unions House people died instantly, having been poisoned by an unidentified substance, the UNIAN news agency reported on Saturday."

Anonymous said...

Grim stuff indeed.
The European/US position is shameful to say the least.
I think Russia will move.It will be without warning fast and severe.

oscar said...

It is the main purpose to provoke an open intervention by Russia so the propaganda machinery of the west will start its claims of how dangerous is Russia, Putin, etc. Putin "new Hitler, Stalin" just guess, Russia new Soviet. Ukrainian experiment by the west is doomed to fail therefore want to engage Russia so to put the blame. I hope too Russia/Putin can avoid this trap.

Anonymous said...

i myself have confidence that Putin and the people surrounding him will act with intent direct purpose....we are in a period of "fast forward" evolutionary change....we either descend into a debased mindless state"Odessa" or we raise and extricate ourselves from the failed...deadend..."western"world of greed,rape...and death!!!! Putin is not a stupid man...what i expect to see from him is....the real "Shock and Awe"...and not just on the battlefield but on many different levels/planes....he will act and his force will be heard.

Mikhail II said...

I’m reminded of the passage in Alexander Werth’s great book “Russia at War”, about the parade through Moscow of the 57,00 Germans captured in Operation Bagration, the greatest Russian offensive of WW2, which broke the Germans on the Eastern Front. Many were among the worst of the worst, who had devastated Belorussia in a vicious partisan war. And yet:

“That parade of 57,000 Germans through Moscow was a memorable sight. Particularly striking was the attitude of the Russian crowds lining the streets. Youngsters booed and whistled, and even threw things at the Germans, only to be immediately restrained by the adults; men looked on grimly and in silence; but many women, especially elderly women, were full of commiseration (some even with tears in their eyes) as they looked at these bedraggled “Fritzes”. I remember an old woman murmuring, “just like our poor boys ... tozhe pognali na boinu (also driven into the war).”

-- It goes without saying that Alexander Werth was himself a Russian, taken from Petrograd to London after the Revolution by his parents, but still a Russian nevertheless.

(Who are the barbarians, and who the civilized ? “We have met the enemy, and they are us”, pace Walt Kelly.)

tom garrett said...

Dear Saker, Well, the Russians could have stopped the incursion in north-central Donetsk by simply warning off the Ukrainian airforce and making a major demonstration over the (admittedly desultory) battlefield, followed by an ultimatum, possibly even one involving leaflets. No-one in his/her right mind wants to see Russians slaughtering Ukrainian soldiers (Yes I've seen war first hand)but I cannot see why, even in the case of a major military operation, that much of this would be necessary. The whole key to unraveling the knot is to do it with, not against the Ukrainian army. What Ukie commanders have to have is credible assurance the Russia means business. As for units/ garrisons determined to resist, bypass them except in rare cases where it's not feasible.

By the way--speaking of T-90 tanks, the Indians have twice as many as Russia does (600at most ) meaning that most formations get by with T-72s.

Apologies, once more, to Robert S for delay in answering his excellent response.

tom

oscar said...

I took a look to the blog of the Spanish fellow named Carlos that the Saker mentioned in the previous post. According to it the order of the attack on Odessa was given by Timoshenko and the militias were mostly of Polish origin with Polish equipment? I suppose very difficult to confirm this.

Rowan Berkeley said...

Howard Amos reports from Odessa for the London Guardian. He wrote that the pro-Russia side fired live ammunition from the trade union building. Here is his tweet. I have left a comment on the RT story about the fire, suggesting they ensure that this claim, that the victims were firing live ammunition before their deaths, be evaluated with the greatest care, as far as possible, and if untrue, rebutted. Certainly, no-one else reported it. That is why I thought it was black propaganda.

But it just hit me that Amos is not quite wrong, though he isn’t quite right either. I bet that what we have here is yet another instance of mystery snipers picking off multiple kills on both sides then melting away unapprehended and unexplained. And I think I can guess who they are: they’re members of the assassination division of Mossad, the Kidon.

Mike Maloney said...

I agree with your analysis wholeheartedly: "We first must carefully look at the full picture, at all the issues at stake, try to understand both why this or that actor does something (especially if that something seems stupid or senseless) and then develop a hypothesis of what will happen if, say, Russia intervenes with its armed force. Or if it does not." Part of this process must include an honest appraisal of the almost total absence of meaningful democracy within the United States. Back during the invasion of Iraq, Arundhati Roy said the most important development in the world would be if the U.S. had a real opposition party -- anti-war, egalitarian. U.S. aggression is endless because both branches of the duopoly support imperial expansion. There needs to be an electoral vehicle to check this. The same goes for Europe.

olivegreen said...

46 deaths confirmed, 170 wounded, 77 are still in hospital, 25 are in critical condition.
Here is a list of the dead who have been identified:

Name---Year of Birth---Cause of Death
Alexander Biryukov - 1978 - gunshot wound
Alexander Zhul'kov - 1968 - gunshot wound
Nokolai Yegorsky - 1976 - gunshot wound
Gennady Petrov -1985 - gunshot wound
Igor Ivanov - 1987 - gunshot wound
Andrey Brazhevsky - 1987 - fall, then beaten to death on the ground
Anatoly Kalin - 1976 - fall
Maxim Nikitenko- 1982 - fall
Viktor Bulakh - 1956 - fall
Anna Varenikaina - 1955 - CO poisoning
Vadim Negadurov - 1959 - burns (died in hospital)
Vyacheslav Markin - 1969 - burns (he is a local council member from the Party of Regions, died in hospital)

All of them are from Odessa

Paul said...

Saker,

I am really glad you wrote this piece. The Hollywood instigated need to see battle was getting out of hand.

thanks.

Celabelle DeCadix said...

Idea: what if the eastern Ukraine pro-Russians went on a general strike? :)

Anonymous said...

There have been initial "reports" that the death toll has been exaggerated and that fifteen of the dead are "Russians." I'm pretty sure this is just BS, aimed at creating a false first impression, resting safe in the hope that silent omissions of lies, and even corrections, never have the same impact. But is there any play for the story in Ukraine and Russia? As opposed to being strictly for domestic consumption in the US and EU?

Anonymous said...

There have been initial "reports" that the death toll has been exaggerated and that fifteen of the dead are "Russians." I'm pretty sure this is just BS, aimed at creating a false first impression, resting safe in the hope that silent omissions of lies, and even corrections, never have the same impact. But is there any play for the story in Ukraine and Russia? As opposed to being strictly for domestic consumption in the US and EU?

steven johnson

Old auntie said...

Uh uh. Bulgaria doesn’t toe the (EU) party line:
Bulgarien fordert von den ukrainischen Behörden die Erfüllung der Verpflichtungen zur Entwaffnung von militanten Gruppierungen und der Einschränkung des Einflusses von Rechtsradikalen
http://german.ruvr.ru/news/2014_05_03/Bulgarien-fordert-von-Kiew-Entwaffnung-der-Kampfer-und-Zugelung-der-Rechtsradikalen-4995/
http://www.bta.bg/en/c/ES/id/820661
http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/05/03/335007/we-will-do-our-duty-to-our-fellow-countrymen-from-odessa-region-bulgarian-foreign-minister.html
http://rushor.com/news/17672
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/54762.html
Vigenin already articulated his commitment to south stream (counterpart to the Nord-Stream-pipeline) some days ago:
http://www.balkaneu.com/bulgaria-remains-fully-committed-south-stream-minister/
Hairline fractures in the EU?

Anonymous said...

The Kiev regime has declared three days of state mourning for the dead in Odessa - May 3rd, 4th and 5th.
This 'state mourning' doesn't apply to the East, where their military actions are ongoing.
I have the gut feeling that Mr Putin will watch and prepare but not do anything before May 9th - for obvious reasons which are self-explanatory.
After that day I think he'll present the reckoning.

Lysander said...

Hi Saker,

Russia is and should be reluctant to intervene, but there is something else I worry about. I know a very pleasant Lithuanian woman at work. She is very nice but I remember one conversation with her about Russia and she let me know how much she hated Russians. She described...with great glee...how Lithuania discovered a clever pseudo-legalistic way of ethnically cleansing much of its Russian minority be requiring proficiency in Lithuanian. She thought that was ever so clever.

So what I worry about is that the Baltic states, all of whom still have a lot of Russians, are watching closely to see how far Ukraine can go without provoking a Russian reaction. And if they go far, I'm convinced they will take that as a green light to persecute and expel their own Russian minority.

This doesn't mean Russia has to go in with guns blazing. I'm just saying there is a real downside to putting up with too much abuse.

I'm not trying to be negative about Lithuanians. Maybe she was an exception. But I lived in Poland for a long time and I don't think I ever met a Pole who hated Russia anywhere near that much.

Old auntie said...

More hairline fractures in the EU?
Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said that Finland has no plans to grant financial aid to Ukraine … (Prime Minister Jyrki) Katainen said Finland does not support sanctions against Russia at this point. Katainen said he had held talks with several other EU leaders since Wednesday, adding that Finland's stance is very close to that of Germany. He stressed that a solution must be found through negotiation.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/katainen_tuomioja_urge_restraint_on_ukraine/7122704

Paul-Robert said...

Dear Saker, thanks for this update. I follow your rationale, but feel that you are too afraid for a Russion intervention, as it will not come, especially not overt. Putin will not fall in this trap. As you rightly pointed out, he is playing chess, and playing for time. Meanwhile, the world is watching, the wrong perceptions among Western populations just might change very quickly. Hence Putin’s appeal for the stationing of more OSCE-observers. He does not want to be seen as jumping to conclusions and send his army in, but for – hopefully neutral – outsiders to see and report to the world what is really happening. In his calculations, much more Kiev-instigated violence must happen before world public opinion will tilt, when the time will be ripe for a UNSC-appeal for peace keepers, which, if vetoed, leaves him the justified option to send in Russian peacekeepers. The game has just begun, unrest must continue until at least the end of May so that the world will accept that any elections are not meaningful at all. Unfortunately, this means that more blood will have to flow. But that also means that the culprits will be identified and held to account at a later date...

Old auntie said...

Imbeciles!
"The fact that the Ukrainian embassy in France refused to participate in a wreath-laying ceremony that has been held by the eternal flame at the Arc de Triumph in Paris, is puzzling," the statement reads.
"Is it possible that Kiev’s current authorities for the sake of instant political ambitions came to forgetting the memory of those who died and suffered in the Chernobyl disaster?" the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.
Mourning events has been held in many countries across the world on April 26 in dedication to 28th anniversary of the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl.
On April 26, 1986, a nuclear reactor exploded at the Chernobyl power plant, affecting the lives of millions of people. A vast area estimated at 50,000 square kilometers, mainly in the three then-Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia was contaminated by the fallout from the critical nuclear meltdown. Some 200,000 people were relocated after the accident.
http://indian.ruvr.ru/news/2014_04_30/Moscow-Ukraine-refusal-memory-Chernobyl/

Anonymous said...

saker -very good analysis-
thanks for assuring us russphiles and also neutral people.
Russia is the last chance for humanity and we wish all the susccess for Russai for the sake of humanity and the world.
espceially liked your quote

"Русские долго запрягают, да быстро едут.
(Russians are slow to saddle-up, but they ride fast)

Eсли замахнулся - то бей.
(Once you swing, then you have to strike)"
thanks again for taking so much of your time to explain things -but take care of yourself too as there is onlky 24 hgours in a day!

Dalpe said...

Saker,

Great SITREP's

The goal of this violence is to precipitate pressure on Russia to act. US/NATO could give a rat's ass about east or west Ukraine. They are waiting for Russia to intervene in order to execute a false flag against Poland or another Baltic State in order to embroil Russia in a wider war.

They want to destroy Russia and the "Silk Road".

Notice that the US is mysteriously absent from the game? They pivoted to Asia!

Humm!

Edmund Dalpe

Crossvader said...

All you guys need to know is one single date - May 11th, ONE WEEK FROM NOW. That's the day when the referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk takes place. The next day these two will probably proclaim independence, and Russia will recognize them immediately as independent countries. Right now Russians are simply waiting for that historic day. They won't do anything before then, but if Ukrainian Nazi junta makes one wrong move after, Turchynov will have no place to hide anywhere in the world.

Afterthought said...

Why would Putin rush headlong into a trap when from a strategic standpoint nothing happened yesterday except that Odessa is in play for the first time and the IMF lost a battle in the war of optics?

Yes, people died. But a head of state has millions, and in the case of Putin, billions of lives in his hands. Russia had an objective with the Sochi Olympics, which was to reenter the world order as a power for the first time since the Tsar.

The West, or more precisely, the Jewish Oligarchy that controls the West, spurned that bid, and intentionally threw Ukraine into turmoil during the Olympics, much like Georgia's attack on Ossetia in 2008.

Russia still wants to be a part of a world order, but they now realize that it won't ever be the current Jewish World Order. Instead they need to build a new order as an alternative to the Jewish banking cartel.

This is the real war; the battle of pawns is just one facet of this.

Putin's next move must be preventing the Ukrainian military from gaining momentum and ruining the referendum on the breakaway of Donbas while simultaneously delegitimizing the 25th May elections in West Ukraine.

Further moves would be a diplomatic coup by causing a rift in Europe, or by getting more open, active support from China or India. Note that India has an election soon, after which it will have a freer hand to go for an alternative to the petrodollar.

juliania said...

I have to confess your post saddens me, Saker. I would so much hope that the tactics used in Chechnya not be used in Ukraine.

That is all I have to say at present.

-yt said...

Like you said often, in case Russia would move in, to occupy territory with the military, they could take whatever territory they want, irrespecitve of the bias of the poulation.

In addition to the severe international political and economic consequences for Russia, the troops would then be exposed to a nazi guerillia militia which will be able to rally much of the population, even young girls, to help to slaughter them. Not a nice outlook.

In case Russia does stay out, only covertly supporting the movement, then these movement will only be successful in regions where:
1.) the bias of the population is strongly pro-russian and
2.) this part of the population is willing to rise up (a few hundred do not count, they are cannon fodder). No uprising, literally, without a sizable amount of the population rising up. Only then, the violent gangs can be held in check.

This would mean that only a smaller part of the south-eastern Ukraine could eventually succeed to split. Also it could mean that the movement may be defeated altogether for now - in case there would be _no real_ uprising.

As opposed to the military option, this would lead to only gradual more heat in international politics and economic problems for Russia from where it is now.

Could it pan out in one of these two ways or what would be the third or fourth way? Nobody knows, we all pull these guesses out from where the sun does not shine.

-yt

Anonymous said...

well said Saker !
the game had just begun and we must always look the entire board.

and putin is a cold player who knows how to absorb hard knocks. Do you remember the sinking of the kursk?

Radik said...

Good article. Its all too easy to be moved to irrational actions by such highly emotional events. I hope there will be justice in the end.

Veritas said...

Dear The Saker,

I think a lot of comments were probably knee jerk reactions (with some just wanting to stir things up).

As you are aware I have agreed with you previously that the Russians need to sit tight and deal with this very carefully. However, as you say their hand may be forced soon - against their will - they don't want to fight their brothers and fellow slavs but there may be no choice and it is heart breaking.

The fact the main stream media is calling them pro-Russian militants just adds to the disgust in our Governments and media.

As I've expressed before the lunatics are running the asylum and human life is cheap to them. They have no humanity.

God bless and protect all the Ukrainians who are just trying to be heard - do not give up, remember - we are the many, they are the few.

Russia is one of the few sane countries we have in the world and they will do what is right when the time is right.

Rgds,


Veritas

Anonymous said...

Saker, with all due respect, the Nazis are taking over Ukraine and they will massacre those who oppose them. Already happening. In my opinion, Russia goes in now while it can keep the losses down, or it will need to go in later, and the losses will be higher.

Anonymous said...

My deepest condolences to the close ones of the murdered yesterday in Odessa. Tragic day for humanity. --ProPeace

David said...

I really want to thank you for providing information in this topic, its very hard to find anything worth reading in english.

RT does its part to get a basic picture, but I realize how little I know about the eastern history and the context in which the current 'conflict' is set.

So again, thank you, hope you keep us informed.

Best regards David from Sweden.

Crossvader said...

Russia's total focus right now is on Donetsk and Lugansk. Odessa's turn will come later on, but right now it's just a noise (cold, but true). On May 12th we will witness the birth of Novorossiya, which over time will incorporate all of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. But in Putin's world - first things first. The man may have diminutive physical stature, but he is a geopolitical colossus, and is clearly the most popular politician in the world, more popular in most western countries than their own heads of state. Integrity does that to you.

Anonymous said...

Кто к нам с мечем пришёл тот от меча и погибнет

Yvonne said...

Couldn't believe it...what a picture: pic.twitter.com/iMqNPNQNjK

Thank you Saker for your Sitreps.

Christoph said...

"Rest assured, if this continues Russia will intervene."

Hopefully in a covert fashion.

As you mentioned Russia has a variety of options to deal with clowns like pravyi s.

An "invisible" shield against Ukie heavy arms and mysterious accidents for the thugs would be best.

Christoph said...

"Rest assured, if this continues Russia will intervene."

Hopefully in a covert fashion.

As you mentioned Russia has a variety of options to deal with clowns like pravyi s.

An "invisible" shield against Ukie heavy arms and mysterious accidents for the thugs would be best.

Veritas said...

Dear The Saker,

Just seen on RT's updates:

19:39 GMT:

"Citizens of Poland and the Baltic countries are receiving Ukrainian passports to participate in the fight against self-defense troops as field commanders and counselors, a source in the Ukrainian Interior Ministry told RIA Novosti.

“[The head of the ministry Arsen] Avakov and [head of the Security Council Valentin] Nalivaichenko each within their departments, have filed orders on April 29 to the migration service to urgently make passports for 300 citizens from Poland and the Baltic countries,” said the source.

The source added that these citizens are already taking part in Kiev’s punitive operation in southeastern Ukraine in the capacity of field commanders and advisers".

No wonder they dont care about the citizens of the S and E or Odessa.....

Also the scum bags are heading to Mariupol now. I think they are trying to stop the referendum next week...

Rgds,

Veritas

Anonymous said...

"Кто к нам с мечем пришёл тот от меча и погибнет"

Не повторяйте тактику которые получили вам одну победу, но пусть ваши методы регулируются бесконечного разнообразия обстоятельств (Son Цу)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Saker.
I know what you mean. I’m just like you, about the same age and I have the same USSR background. I’ll try to write my best English and add couple of thoughts for readers. Guys always keep this in mind
1. Even if I personally agree with Saker , one should always remember it’s still only a subjective opinion based on someone level of knowledge and understanding.
2. Emotions are not what should be used when you play the game with an ugly name “War”.
3. What we see on internet or TV represents only the small amount of the cards from the deck in play.
4. When someone say America or Russia it can mean two different things. The meaning of the state and the meaning of American people or Russian people. Unfortunately the goal of states is usually different from the goal of its own people.
5. We should not forget that Putin and the people around him and many other decision makers are rich people and they have something to lose. So we shouldn’t think about Russia/ Putin as some sort of Robin Hood.
What if we do not completely understand what’s going on? React your to your emotions and sending troops to take half of Ukraine is one visible option. But maybe the current situation provides alternative options, something like this: lets wait till cancer destroys the whole body or... shot two rabbits with one bullet. Maybe escalation and doing nothing is a good options for the Russian state as well?
Who will pay for NATO expansion? Right, the US/EU taxpayer. Who will pay for the higher gas price? or more expensive food and Chinese crap ? It’s not the state, it will be the people of the state. A dumb one will blame Russia, but an intelligent one will understand very clearly that the government representatives’ are dumb... You need to push just one right domino piece and the domino effect will finish the job.
I’m sorry for the people, but I don’t think we can change much. This world is controlled by psychopaths. Either we ignore the system or we fight it. Jorge Carlin said: “You can’t fight City Hall, but you can goddamn sure blow it up.” I hope people in Ukraine will figure this out soon.
Let’s wait and see
avalS

Where-Wolf said...

Fans of James Corbett should check this disgraceful interview with Roman Skaskiw -- coinciding almost perfectly with this massacre.

I've lost all respect for Russophobe Corbett.

http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-873-roman-skaskiw-gives-the-ukrainian-perspective-on-the-ukraine-crisis/

Anonymous said...

When the massacre in Odessa happened I just could not believe, I was crying and praying. I hoped that the west would finally see what kind of monster they created. But no, they don’t. They still plan sanctions against Russia.

I am US citizen, and if Putin does something drastic that will hurt US it will hurt me. And I wish he did. I wish the zombie-land felt the heat, even though I would feel it too. I will be happy to know that the evil is punished.

Anonymous said...

Saker,
ref The Wahabi insurgency had to be ruthlessly crushed or Russia would collapse
Can you please elaborate a bit, why the continuous insurrection in tiny Chechnya would have seriously affected the security of powerful Russia.
The procedures you describe having been applied by Putin in that war smack of the ugliest US war crimes in Vietnam and Iraq. If similar tactics would be used in eastern Ukraine, most western friends of Russia would be quickly appalled/disillusioned. By the way, I understand that the Russian economy is dominated by the oligarchs of the same tribe as in Ukraine.. What about the rumor that Putin has the name Epstein not very high up in his family tree..
It would not be the first time, that the tribe in different countries would concoct a large war to strengthen their grip on the Goyim..
Caveman

Nora said...

Saker,

Thank you very much. I would feel reassured if I could feel anything other than yesterday's horror. I think it's gonna hang in a while Chez Nora.

Chess, indeed. Plus nerves of steel to be able to bide one's time and carefully weigh all the consequences while events and enemies escalate and metastasize. Poland and the Baltics have opened the floodgates for more hate-filled/drug-crazed/mercenary monsters but is this simply our typical arrogant incompetence, is it being done deliberately to raise prices enough for fracking to actually be profitable (it is NOT at present), or do we even care if Ukraine becomes a failed state?

At other times I might giggle at the thought of Putin with shoulder-length hair, love beads and a bong, (still pondering the choice of music to accompany this...) but the weight of those martyrs is very heavy indeed. So mostly I'm thinking the Russian soul would appear mysterious primarily to those who haven't one. Right now that seems to be most of the people I live among.

Anonymous said...


Donetsk is lost to the federalists.

The enterprise owned by the oligarch Taruta, Donetsk governor tht hd been appointed by Kiev-Junta, has been taken by the locals. The chairs flied off through the windows while the people shouted "Taruta Fascist". "We will never forget Odessa"

So, the governor has lost control of the city and, who would say it one week ago!, of his business offices as well.

*.*

Daniel Rich said...

Those Spetsnaz guys I met back in the day never mentioned 'fighting.' Provided the translation was correct, they always referred to 'neutralizing the tension' and their attack/defense always centered around 'disturbing balance,' literally/physically.

Russia/Putin should absolutely not interfere in the wider Ukraine, but they/he should arm the anti-coup protesters to the teeth, so they will be able to defend themselves.

I read about many questions/pleads reaching Moscow to 'help' the pro-Russian Ukrainians, but imho the West is salivating for Russia to 'prove' its 'aggressiveness.'

Personally I'm so disgusted with the western news media that I no longer read the NYT/WaPo/LAT/Ynet/JeTi/etc. I detest the rancid taste of acid, every time one of their headlines penetrates my cornea and stare at my cucumber plant reaching out for the sky instead.

I feel sorry for those who have died and those who will die in the days/weeks to come.

The Western backed thugs will do a real 'Palestine/USS Liberty' on the east, until the bear growls. The coup installed Ukrainian 'government' is as much about Peace as Dracula is about running a non profit, Red Cross blood bank...

Blink said...

I hope we don't engage. I pray for the fallen.
And for Russia holding back as much as possible. And I still hope Ukrainian army will stop

olivegreen said...

Here is recent information from Igor Strelkov, the military commander of the rebel forces (originally posted on a discussion board he moderates):

http://trueinform.ru/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=27045

elsi said...

http://www.publico.es/internacional/518252/asi-fue-la-matanza-en-la-casa-de-los-sindicatos-de-odessa-video

Vídeo made by a witness published today in the spanish journal ( left tendency ) Público.

Despite the poor quality, I can see young people with expensive quality clothes ( so well fit jeans and fashion jackets ) and backpacks. I wonder how a young ucranian can afford them, considering salary in Ucraine.

On other hand, would be interesting to know what are saying both guys in the windows as individuals out with police ( perhaps someone could translate ).

Looking at those young women filming with their mobiles the savagery committed by their colleagues I only can explain this to myself knowing that there is a 1% of the female population who are psychopaths.

I understand russians way to behave considering what these people have suffered throughout history and how much and how long they struggled to be free.

About Putin, I think a person sacrificed for his people, as noted a semblance posted here some days ago. It would seem that suffers "the loneliness of long distance runner"....Sometimes I´m very sorry because I can see the terrible suffering and weariness in his eyes.

Andreas Walsh said...

"The Wahabi insurgency had to be ruthlessly crushed or Russia would collapse."
Explain that one to me. Who needs Chechnya?

Anonymous said...

“The Ukrainian social networks flooded with joyful messages congratulation the "heroes" in Odessa and promising more of the same to the accursed Moskals.”

Please, Saker, tell us there was a divided message from the Ukrainians. Tell us that this is not the prevailing attitude of Ukrainians. Tell us that the cheering comes mostly from western and to a lesser degree central Ukraine (the populous Kiev), and that the joyful messages come from blogs/social pages associated with the Maidan, making them understandable, and is not a generalized phenomenon.

The way you tell us, it sounds like the whole of Ukraine is happy with what happened in Odessa. Are the people from the south and the east happy, too?

olivegreen said...

More information from Igor Strelkov (seems that news sites have found the discussion board too):

http://rusvesna.su/news/1399151697

Anonymous said...

Couldn’t Russia be waiting the junta’s military operations against the civilians in the east in order to gather enough evidence (videos/photos — the union building massacre by the junta’s shabbos goyim being just one of the many examples to come), which can be used to justify a “peace-keeping” intervention in order to stop the junta’s massacre of protestors and ethnic violence, backed by enough proof that the Russian media, Russia-friendly media, anti-NWO media, anti-globalist media, anti-imperialist media, assorted nationalist/leftist media will make good use of, to the detriment of an already precarious narrative of the controlled press that attract mostly disagreement from the readers’ comments, be they from the ‘right’ or ‘left’?

Today there are cameras everywhere (something I am unhappy with), the material that will be used in justifying an intervention will keep pilling up.

This is a probable scenario. I am confident a Russian intervention will occur sooner than we think — a few weeks away at best.

Nora said...

elsi,

An emphatic YES! to every observation you made. And the power of your compassion appears equally impressive, especially as regards Putin. Your last two sentences are absolute "keepers", and every bit as haunting in their own way as the thoughts of yesterday's massacre. Thank you.


Daniel Rich said...

Which important battles did Sun Tzu fight and win?

Anonymous said...

Putin's goal is to take the east and south Ukraine without sending in the army. It could take a few years.

It's best if the IMF loan along with austerity measures go through. The contrast between what will happen in Crimea (a booming economy) and Ukraine will have an effect.

If Europe doesn't send money to Russia to pay for Ukrainian gas, Ukraine won't receive gas. Ukraine will constantly be asking Europe for money. What effect will that have?

Let the Americans think they've won. Maybe Obama can go to Kiev and declare "mission accomplished".

Rog said...

More analaysis on Russia/US-EU strategies. Putin wins hands down! lol
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/91369/print

Anonymous said...

Very nice analysis as always, Saker! What you don't take into account though is the public opinion inside Russia. Vzglyad conducted a poll whether Russia should move the army into Ukraine after the Odessa massacre, and around 75% said YES. Putin has kept silent after Odessa and hasn't made a statement or anything, and lots of hot-headed people are already saying that he sold South-East out and conducting a parade on May 9th while there are nazi ravaging in Ukraine would be a farce. Keep in mind that after Crimea his approval rating soared to about 80%, but if killing of Russians in Ukraine continues and he does nothing, it might just drop as low. Maidan in Moscow undoubtedly is one of empire's goals and Putin has to thread here carefully. I'm not saying he necessarily has to move into Ukraine, but he'll have to do SOMETHING and soon.

Daniel Rich said...

Q: Кто к нам с мечем пришёл тот от меча и погибнет

R: 'Who comes to us with the sword that came from the sword will perish.'

Is this automated translation correct?

Mohamed said...

"Nora said on 03 May, 2014 21:18...
At other times I might giggle at the thought of Putin with shoulder-length hair, love beads and a bong, (still pondering the choice of music to accompany this...)"


Dear Nora,

lol. I will go for either Led Zeppelin or Pink Floyd. If you are into Southern Rock, then I might go for Allman Brothers, Lynyrd Skynyrd, Little Feat or Rare Earth.

Failing so, I will go for Jefferson Airplane, "White Rabbit". :)

Best regards,

Mohamed.

Nora said...

Daniel Rich,

I'm no expert on either but try Googling Sun Tzu and St. Alexander Nevsky. Wikipedia will do for starters. We Americans know so little about anything that happened beyond our borders or before our country was born, but we really need to learn.

Penny said...

regarding James Corbett's interview with Roman Skaskiw

I am listening presently...
He isn't entirely truthful about a number of happenings
However, what I find most interesting about him is that he is an AMERICAN. American born, Fulbright Scholar, living in Lviv?
For how long?

"Captain Roman Skaskiw is a Veteran US Army Ranger who served one tour in Iraq and two in Afghanistan. He is a Fulbright Scholar who holds an Engineering Degree from Stanford"
http://www1.radiofreemarket.com/2011/10/31/roman-skaskiw-and-drew-hjelm-on-soldiers-who-became-anti-war-libertarians-102911-rfm/

For a libertarian he is awfully pro EU...
Despite the fact that Ukraine will not benefit at all from joining the EU
Even going so far as claiming there are worse things then private central banks
really?
Private central banks are the blight of the planet.

I also find the fact that him being a Fullbright Scholar could easily indicate a connection to US intelligence...

http://www.carlbernstein.com/magazine_cia_and_media.php

" there is a self‑imposed prohibition on Fulbrights [Fulbright Scholars]"

The Intelligence-University Complex: CIA Secretly Supports Scholarships

http://www.democracynow.org/2005/8/3/the_intelligence_university_complex_cia_secretly

So Skaskiw does a couple of military tours- becomes a fulbright scholar- goes to stanford and ends up in Lviv

Skaskiw reeks of intelligence asset IMO

Mr Corbett did not do his homework
intentionally or neglectfully?

Brat said...

The talk about a possible Russian intervention bringing NATO a reason to continue existing is moot. The organization will continue existing and expanding regardless of Russia's actions. Russia's inaction will be costlier than its action in the long term.

Anonymous said...

Vladimir Vladimirovich speaketh:

http://eng.news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/7091/print

elsi said...

Nora,

Thank you, too, for your contributions in this blog.

It´s not easy for me in english and mucho more to convey feelings or emotions. It is because you are also an empathetic person who has understood me definitely.

This blog is for me an oasis. It´s difficult in Spain, and much more in Europe, to express a favorable opinion about Putin or Russia even in leftist media´s forums.

Kind regards

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Daniel Rich, Sun Zi's first lesson was to avoid battle, wherever you could. His 'war' was strategic and political, not the tactical brilliance of a Hannibal.

123abc said...

I've just watched the Corbett interview. Either he gives a public apology or he is finished. It's very hard to take him seriously after this interview.

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

elsi, the Real Evil Empire of Eternal Exceptionalism always draws out the worst from the worst people. The USA power elite always seeks out and empowers fellow psychopaths, great and small, to do their filthy work. It only takes a few robopaths, with homicidal or genocidal inclinations, to stampede a populace into full pogrom mode. Those who stand in opposition are easily denounced as 'traitors' to the 'Glory of Ukrainian blood' or some similar sub-fascist gibberish, and despatched, 'to encourage the others'. This is how the monsters from Mordor on the Potomac turned a peaceful Yugoslavia, full of inter-married people living in peace and harmony, into a charnel-house. Ukraine today is just another chapter in the 200 year history of the Yankee Reich's unquenchable bloodlust.

Anonymous said...

@Daniel Rich: it means "He comes to us with the sword will die by the sword." St. Alexander Nevskii said that, paraphrasing Christ's words when He healed the centurion's servant, at the time He was handed over.

Daniel Rich said...

@ Nora,

I talked to a WWII Vet in France and he said, "Things have changed. After we fought our way to Paris, we were greeted by women and doused in wine. Today they'll hurl those bottles after us..."

The emperor's dying. May the end come soon and this madness finally laid to rest.

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Lysander, in Lithuania the fascisti now in charge prosecuted an elderly Jewish woman for the 'crime' of killing Lithuanian Nazis while a Soviet partisan during WW2. I believe the persecution was halted, probably because she was a Jew, but it shows you that Nazi psychology never changes, from generation to generation.

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Rowan Berkeley, 'Howard Amos', another secret Palestinian, probably Hamas, who have so infiltrated the glorious Western 'Free Press'. The Guardian, a shit-hole, if you'll pardon my French' of lies and aggressive agit-prop. Still, you are correct. The 'mysterious snipers' are now so integral to the violent type of Western 'regime change' operations as to be routine, as is the subsequent Western MSM lying about it.

Anonymous said...

Best solution for Russia is a counter coup..like in Egypt

Anonymous said...

Dear Nora and Mohamed,

"Nora said on 03 May, 2014 21:18...
At other times I might giggle at the thought of Putin with shoulder-length hair, love beads and a bong, (still pondering the choice of music to accompany this...)"


I think the music is quite obvious - "Sweet Home Alabama" sung by the Leningrad Cowboys and the Red Army Choir.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrg0X9H6FGU

Something to cheer up sad times.

Stivan.

Anonymous said...


Daniel Rich said...
Q: Кто к нам с мечем пришёл тот от меча и погибнет

rather: Whoever attacks us with the sword will perish by the sword...
Another variation of gospel Jesus' saying to Peter.

Thanks The Saker!
JUst watched http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2Cl8lSv9Is -The Rise of Putin and The Fall of The Russian-Jewish Oligarchs to understand the importance of Chechnya then.Berezowsky himself admitted Putin didn't want the position of president - unless Yeltsin asks him personally. What a pity, Ukraine ( having the same or similar oligarchs) doesn't have such a Putin! 44 mln people and no real statesman among them?

Anonymous said...

I've been duped over the years by these so-called "truthers" like we all have. Corbett is no different. He ain't one of us, but one of them. I came across this quote some time back and bought the book where it originated, an anthology titled: A Psychological Warfare Casebook

I try to keep this in mind when evaluating a website and/or alternative news personality. Consistency is the key, so you have to have time on your side. Here's the quote from page 38.

8. The central substance of propaganda is hard, correct information.

“If you give a man the correct information for seven years, he may believe the incorrect information on the first day of the eighth year when it is necessary, from your point of view, that he should do so. Your first job is to build the credibility and the authenticity of your propoganda, and persuade the enemy to trust you although you are his enemy.”

Betrayal is a stain that never fades.

Nora said...

Stivan, you and Mohamed (a Shi'a into Pink Floyd??) DID manage to break my mood! That video is something else!!! ;~)

Now, Petri Krohn invoked The Battle Hymn Of The Republic on the next thread and I tried to find these guys doing that one (it's a lifelong, all-time favorite even though it always makes me cry) but I can't seem to find it.... You wouldn't have a URL for that one too, now would you?

Brian_J said...

Mohamed said...

If you are into Southern Rock, then I might go for Allman Brothers ...

How about Eat a Peach Ain’t Wasting Time No More

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE3zhu9ROjo&feature=kp

Anonymous said...

Germany is paying from their taxpayers money for the Ukrainian bastards, please read here (in german): Accusations from the U.S.: Adenauer Foundation paid protesters - http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2014/02/498830/vorwurf-aus-den-usa-adenauer-stiftung-bezahlt-demonstranten/

Anonymous said...

Nothing wrong with the Corbett interview. He is just trying to harvest a diverse set of views like every good reporter would.

Everyone has their own story to tell - Ukrainian, Russian, European, etc.

So what do you do then when these stories contradict each other? You keep them under your hat. What if you can't? An intelligent person can.

With best wishes

Anonymous from Finland

CubuCoko said...

Saker, hope you don't mind that I've taken the liberty of translating most of your post (and the follow-up) into Serbian, to counter the similar warmongering/condemnation reflex among the Serbs.

I guess they are so frustrated with their own occupation by the Empire they want to see *some* justice meted out *somewhere*, without thinking about the loss of life. If only they'd channel that frustration and rage into their own liberation instead...

Also am I the only one reminded of the Kosovo Serbs peacefully standing off German tanks (2011-2013, before Belgrade betrayed them) every time I see the federalists stopping BMPs with their bare hands?

WizOz said...

Wow, yes the Russian soul is mystical.

How about some mystique of the numbers?

1654 (Treaty of Pereyaslav, the Cossaks inite with Russia) - 2014 (reunification of Crimea with Russia, beginnig of the liberation of Novorossyia)= 360 years, a complete cycle: 60 multiplied by 60 = 40 multiplied by 9!
1774 (Treaty of Kuchuk-Kainarji and the beggining of Novorossyia) - 2014 (the beggining of the liberation of Novorossyia) = 240 years, a smaller cycle: 60 multiplied by 4, or 40 by 6!

Anonymous said...

Dear Nora,

Yelena Vaenga singing "The Sacred War" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y4_2Qa0QQs&list=RDjGEC5PEZEh8&index=0 may also lift your spirits especially if you understand the lyrics https://www.marxists.org/history/ussr/sounds/lyrics/sviashchennaia-vojna.htm and their appropriateness to the current situation in the Ukraine.

Look at the faces of the audience and you'll appreciate why the fascists are doomed.

If you have time, watch the entire concert.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGEC5PEZEh8

Stivan.

Feng Chsang said...

Considering the quality of this blog allow me to play devil's advocate:
What about Saker as a propaganda tool of the Russians?
Think of it: 20.000 visitors a day, a load of reactions (1000 a day?) and the man is editing that all by himself?

New Insight said...

Current map of Donetsk region

Life News published (Sunday) this short video with maps showing who controls what territory in Donetsk region.

Телеканал LifeNews составили схему блокпостов на юго-востоке Украины
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMd1J7gxd84

Red = controlled by the regime: Ukr Army, National Guard, Right Sector;
Green = controlled by the Resistance.

Summary:

1) Roads from Kharkov to Slavyansk are fully controlled by the regime.

2) The cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are controlled by the resistance but surrounded by regime checkpoints.

3) The city of Donetsk and those around it are controlled by the resistance.

Where-Wolf said...

Great find on Captain Roman Skaskiw, Penny!

Tell Corbett what you think. Write a short, polite note to tell him he has lost all credibility. If he does not respond in a reasonable fasion then you know he is a shill.

http://www.corbettreport.com/contact/

Incidently, Sibel Edmonds is former FBI. She pulls her punches all the time and babels on endlessly offering little to no significant information. Like Annie Machon, who claims Putin is likely behind the Moscow Apartment bombings, she has an elaborate cover story including a book purporting to give us the inside scoop. Tom Secker, another of Corbett's partners with a good looking website and a book, is a sneaky and manipulative douche. Dig dig dig. Learn to consciously recognize when you are listening to information you strongly agree with. Note what part of the official narrative is being rejected and reinforced. It is likely that if you have heard of an alternative journalist he or she is an asset and you are being corralled.

Mohamed said...

"Stivan said on 04 May, 2014 00:46...
I think the music is quite obvious - "Sweet Home Alabama" sung by the Leningrad Cowboys and the Red Army Choir.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrg0X9H6FGU
Something to cheer up sad times."


Just two words, "hilarious dark".

Best regards,

Mohamed.

Anonymous said...

Well, to be honest you did not mention that pro russian militants first attacked pro Ukrain peacefull protesters in Odessa and killed six people. Attack on pro russian militants followed after that.

Mohamed said...

"Brian_J said on 04 May, 2014 02:37...
How about Eat a Peach Ain’t Wasting Time No More
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE3zhu9ROjo&feature=kp"


Wow, good old times. Allman Brother are not Southern Rock, they are Classical Rock.

Best regards,

Mohamed.

vortex said...

@Feng Chsang

Saker may or may not be a Russian propaganda tool but that is irrelevant to critical thinkers. A critical thinker cares not for the source, only the content. The source is a concern only for passive thinkers who need to have their information spoon fed to them like babies because mentally that's what they are.

oscar said...

I would reply "Feng Chsang" question whether the Saker is a tool of Russian propaganda. I would not care a bit about that, I am sick ant tired of the lies of the neo-cons, CIA, FBI, Hollywood, BBC, CNN, Nuland, Kagan, the AIPAC Reuters, AP, etc, just choose whatever that I have witnessed year after year for decades. So if you want me I am also a tool for the Russian propaganda.

mata h ari said...

Obama and his bunch of terrorists are moving before President Putin and President Xi has a chance to meet. It is perhaps to pre-empt their potential alliance. Mr and Putin and Mr Xi should move up their meeting. Russia and China need to have an allaince which strengthen each other's hand and allows them to stand up to Washington without fear or worry knowing that any attempt to threaten and attack the other will result in an attack on the US in response.

Do it President Putin and Xi. You have ALL to gain and little to lose in such an Alliance!

123abc said...

@Anonymous from Finland

No, everything is wrong with that interview. A good reporter wouldn't let blatant lies be expounded on his show without any serious corrections or at least hard questions. Corbett did neither. It's a huge stain on his resume and after this he simply can't be trusted again.

WizOz said...

@FengShui

So, what's the problem with propaganda? Is it bad if it's for Russians but good if it's Hasbara?
The site is an intelligent and informed propaganda tool for the truth. It said from the start that it presents a pro-Russian point of view. Do you actually hold the view that Russians lie by definition?

Nora said...

Stivan,

Wow. Those faces... The only word I (thought I) understood was narodnaya, so I found a version with English subtitles -- and WWII footage. Whew. (You do know that we were, and are, all taught that WE won that war, and Roosevelt gave away Eastern Europe. I only learned otherwise well into my adulthood.) That song, to me, has the same impact as Battle Hymn of the Republic, or Rally 'Round the Flag (which, if you're unfamiliar with it, states quite clearly the meaning of that war, *and* gives full credit to those who actually won it -- freemen and freed slaves who signed up and fought valiantly when the ranks got depleted and no more whites would sign up. Somewhere between 200,000 and 250,000 of them if I remember correctly.)

But back to narodnaya -- it's not just "the people" then, it also means noble, and...? Was that merely a Communist usage? Does it still apply? I like it, in any case! And now I've got my earworm for the day too. Wow. Just wow.

Nora said...

Feng Chsang,

Let me play devil's advocate too: let's say he is. Now compare the facts, opinions and analyses he offers with the pablum we get everywhere else, including a lot of the deliberately-neutralized word choices of RT. If one were to accept your point -- and I assuredly DO. NOT. -- then it would simply be a matter of choosing the superior propaganda. For me, that's not simply what makes me feel good, but that which aligns best with facts on the ground, i.e., the truth. And facts, and truth, are mighty scarce commodities in the Western media and, sadly, all too many blogs. Your choice, of course, but I read pretty widely and find I get more facts and infinitely better analyses here than anywhere else.

Ilja Schmelzer said...

Just a note: Chinese play not that much chess but Go. But all a your qualitative remarks about chess are even more valid for Go, a game with surprising simplicity of the rules but surprisingly much more complex. While modern computers win against world champions in chess, Go computers are only average and have no chance against top human players.

Ilja Schmelzer said...

Just a note: Chinese play not that much chess but Go. But all a your qualitative remarks about chess are even more valid for Go, a game with surprising simplicity of the rules but surprisingly much more complex. While modern computers win against world champions in chess, Go computers are only average and have no chance against top human players.

Mohamed said...

"Nora on 04 May, 2014 02:15 said...
Stivan, you and Mohamed (a Shi'a into Pink Floyd??) DID manage to break my mood! That video is something else!!! ;~) "


lol. Pink Floyd is for brother Saker, who have Roger Waters' beautiful quote on his site.

We don't need no education
We don't need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey teacher leave them kids alone
All in all it's just another brick in the wall
All in all you're just another brick in the wall

Best regards,

Mohamed. ;~)

Soarintothesky said...

The EU28 now has a larger GDP than the USA and the extensions of the EU into the EEA (Norway, Switzerland and Iceland) and Turkey already put the EU comfortably ahead. Brezinzki in his book, The Great ChessBoard, explicitly states that the US must keep the EU and Russia apart or lose it's position as the world's hegemonic power. He identified Ukraine as the tool to do this. People who use the word "The West" are either lying or misled. When Kerry uses "The West" he is trying to pretend there is some moral support for his position. When Lavrov uses "The West" he is trying to create a world of Black and White as dated as the Cold War. The EU's interest is in a stable and prosperous Eastern Europe. (Most trade is done between rich countries). The US's interest is in instabilty around the EU borders (inclduing North Africa)so that the US can maintain NATO (73% of the budget is paid by the US) and substantial political control of Eurasia. There is no US-EU united position. It is naive to suggest it.

Anonymous said...

There's quite a bit that's suspicious in the Corbett interview. First he presents his guest as the Ukrainian perspective, but the guest is an American living in Ukraine. For comparison would an interview with a Corbett about Japan be the Japanese perspective? Second he never ask the basic question of what his guest is doing in Ukraine; how is he supporting himself? And what about his history in the US military that is not a topic of conversation either. Of course he can have anyone on he chooses but he also has the job of providing perspective and context and he failed badly on that score.

pug said...

Feng Chsang, Russia really should send the busy Saker some assistance, because he does a very good job of explaining current events from a Russian perspective.

Soarintothesky said...

Successful Russian military occupation would require popular support. It is not clear that exists even in Donetsk. There is evidence for an enthusiastic pro President/Secession minority. However, the big pro Parliament demonstration in Donetsk was noticeably younger and wealthier than the President's men. In Northern Ireland, the IRA had maybe 200-300 active members and 20-30,000 supporters from a population of 1.5 million. Even the most Russified parts of Ukraine contain Ukranians. I'm an English speaking Welshman. Not speaking Welsh doesn't make me English. A Novorossiya that relied on Russian military backing would be less stable than Ukraine now. The state of the economy is secondary. During the period of the Northern Irish troubles, the North was the most prosperous part. It didn't stop the IRA wanting unity with the South. In the American Civil War, the wealth was in the North but the South still wanted to secede.

Nora said...

elsi,

Somehow I missed your comment to me, but let me respond now. It's an oasis for me, too. And I'm truly astounded at how many people -- you among them -- complain about their English and yet use it exquisitely well. It's so hard to do that if you're not using it every day so I truly, deeply respect the skill as well as the effort involved. I'm glad to get to know you, it's lovely finding a kindred spirit!

Daniel Rich,

The place it will get ugliest, I think, when this Empire collapses, is right here in the belly of the beast. I dread it, but we deserve it, in spades.

Soarintothesky,

I'm not sure I agree w/you re: Northern Ireland, where IRA membership /= views on the source of or solution for the Troubles; a far better stand-in would be simply numbers of Protestants vs. numbers of Catholics. And I absolutely disagree w/you re: the wealth of the North vs. the South right before the Civil War. The real wealth of America was... slaves.

Anonymous said...

On the 25th of May it'll be election day in Europe for renewing the EU parliament. I hope that will be a real occasion for freeing Europe from nazi-fascism. More and more people is becoming aware of how the EU pundits are controlled by big industry policies, which are chocking welfare state and labor rights.
Therefore I just hope and suppose the Russians will wait until after the 25th for any move about Ukraine.

WizOz said...

@Where-Wolf said... Fans of James Corbett should check this disgraceful interview with Roman Skaskiw

Coincidentally I watched this interview after I watched a previous one with Sybel Edmonds which made me lose all respect for her. I fully agree with you. Hasbara is very subtle at times, but it cannot fail to unmask herself sometimes.

Anonymous said...

Feel free to correct me, anyone, if I'm wrong, but it's my understanding that the Wahabi were yet another terror group either created or at least supported and trained by our evil CIA.

So to those who ask "Who needs Chechnya," that's actually not the point, or not the whole one. The CIA knows exactly where and how to strike with their terror-kind, to create the most significant problems for those whom they oppose.

-Ann P

Wikispooks said...

@Where-Wolf, @Penny all

A truly bizarre interview. I have sent the following to Corbett and will post any reply in comments here if one is forthcoming:

I was appalled by this interview - I really had difficulty believing what I was hearing and for a while thought it had to be some sort of wind-up. Sadly, it clearly was not.

I run the Wikispooks web site and have been a long-time supporter of both your work and that of Sibel Edmonds. This piece has me reconsidering that support VERY carefully indeed.

In view of the near-completion of the military encirclement of Russia and the clear, in-your-face-obvious intent by the West to destroy Russia if it cannot be made to submit to Anglo-US-NATO uni-polar global project requirements, I really would like to understand why it is that you - of all people - are so ready to jump on the anti-Russian bandwagon. I find it both bizarre and truly puzzling.

Please help me out here.


I urge others to listen to the interview. Here's the link again. Then provide some feedback to corbett from his feedback form here

I'd like him to get so many such responses that he is forced to explain himself publicly. If he does not, then the conclusion is clear enough.

Where-Wolf said...

Since this has become the music and poetry thread, I stumbled on this looking for Loreena McKennitt's Mummer's Dance after hearing it on the radio today. It seemed appropriate to tie in given my recent rambling about wolves and my screen name. I love the song. Seeing it I realized I've been thinking about wolves a lot lately.

They keep popping up in popular culture. I wondered if I'd been pointed to this video -- with soothing music set alongside pics of a heroic canine.

It occurred to me that the image of the wolf is being used to reassure. We are just bathed in a sea of propaganda. It's impossible to escape the programming! The music you're posting is the sound track to my life. I hear (some of) it differently now.

When I hear or read the lyrics in We don't need no education -- I've heard it so many times the music is dead to me, I'm aware this song was used to ruin the attitude of kids about education. That was it's purpose. I was in grade 4 or 5 when this song became popular. I remember seeing some of my classmates, especially the ones not doing well, stop trying altogether cause they didn't need no education.

This is how we are consstantly attacked by things we love, including great art.

I think it's good to mind your defenses.

Here it is:

Loreena McKennitt - Mummer's Dance (Dance of wolves)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uq0QKjXlso

Party pooper or counter-propagandist?

You decide;)